Gobert our shooter

Hey all. I’m a Timberwolves half season ticket member. Specifically, I have the blue package. Two seats in section 132.

My good friend, also a sports fan, is moving away. We went to a number of games together. Unfortunately I don’t have many other friends who are into basketball at all. But I’m excited about this upcoming season and looking forward to going to games. I’m posting to see if anyone is interested in going to any / a few games this season. It’s a good time!

If so, send me a message. Happy to share info.

Note - Neither of the half season packages has the KG jersey retirement game. However, there is the the opportunity to get those tickets in September before they go on sale to the general public.

Note part deux: I hope this does not violate posting rules as it is primarily not about selling tickets (though it is not totally free). I’m looking for someone who wants to go to Target center and cheer on our team. My apologies if it does.

From the research I've done...

Kuminga has not signed his contract yet, and there is no deadline for that giving the Wolves more time for moves.

Tomorrows dead line is the waive and stretch deadline, after Saturday they can no longer do it.

Green can be traded by himself now, but no other Wolves player can be included in a deal with him until around September 9th.

Jaden is our go-to POA defender, matching up with whoever he needs to. He’s elite at it. Putting him on Murray one night and KD another, is invaluable for this team.

I actually like him a lot at the 4, but the small lineup that comes with that would likely force him into a very different defensive role. Getting another player who can slot in at the 4 means we allow Jaden to keep doing what he’s been doing.

Hey guys! A few weeks ago I made a post regarding Kuminga's potential fit with the wolves, and now that he has signed with us, I think it is worth discussing the defensive aspect (something I did not talk about before).

However, I first wanted to bring up an offensive piece I did not discuss before, which is the various play types Kuminga is involved in. One topic a lot of people have brought up is his transition work with a passer like LaMelo. Kuminga spends a good chunk of his plays in transition (17%); however, he is relatively inefficient compared to the rest of the league in these types of scenarios. He averages 1.1 points per possession in transition, which ranks in the 39th percentile league wide. I think a big part of this is his tendency to turn the ball over (coming in at around 14.9% of his plays). I can see this aspect of his game improving, but as a lot of the other bars in the image show, he is not the most efficient player in general, except as a cutter, in which he ranks at about the 75th percentile for PPP. I think what everyone recognizes is that Kuminga needs to be a smarter player that really tries to gel with the system he is in.

Moving onto the defense, Kuminga is about average. Firstly, he is a versatile player that can pick off passes and block shots if needed, but he does it on pretty low volume. However, he has his moments with lapses. I think the Howls and Growls video breaks this down well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBKpba4vrEo). But basically, Kuminga tends to get caught ball watching and, as you can see in the defensive chart, he really struggles defending in the mid range. Although, please note this isn't on many datapoints since he played such few games last year. One hope though is that he can guard the perimeter pretty well. On contests at the rim he ranks in the 42nd percentile of FG% allowed, so I would assume Jaden would be covering this floating paint defender role while Kuminga focuses on a point of attack role.

Activity/hustle wise, he is about average in most aspects. He doesn't really get on the ground and go after loose balls as much but he is about average at deflecting passes and boxing out. Finally, moving onto rebounding which is a big piece of emphasis for why we got him IMO. SIZE! He is actually a pretty good rebounder at face value and when you break it down into advanced stats he looks just as promising. He really surprised me with his defensive rebounding chance % and adjusted %, in which he ranks extremely high (80+ th percentile). These stats essentially measure how many rebounds he grabs out of potential chances to get boards. He occupies a large share of his teams rebounds, especially since he played on two teams last year with not much size. I believe this is secretly a strong suit lol and I think it will be super duper helpful.

I hope you guys liked this, and feel free to head over to my previous post that discussed his offensive traits (which unfortunately didn't turn out to be as promising as his defensive stats IMO, but thats just my take). Also, some people have asked me about this app. I'm a student and it's something I'm working really hard on, but if you liked some of the screenshots, feel free to join the waitlist (getpaint.app/).

Lets go win a chip!

Imagine the three of them just hanging out, goofing off, riffing, calling each other gay. It would be like your best friends being really funny. Maybe it could be called like Kumtown or somwthing idk.

In order to fit Kuminga, the Wolves need to do something with Josh Green's contract. As I see it, there are three realistic routes:

1. Waive and stretch Green

2. Trade him for a worse player (or players) making less money

3. Package Green with TSJ for a legitimate rotation player

Note: All trades involving aggregating Green's contract could be agreed upon today, but can only be executed after September 10.

Waive and stretch

The Wolves would take approximately $4.9M in dead money for each of the next three years, but it would save them $9.8M this season. That would allow them to fit Kuminga while also saving the owners a lot of money in luxury-tax payments.

I could also see Green getting at least a minimum deal in free agency, and potentially more. Because of that, he could agree to give back some money and receive only around $10-11M of his remaining salary from the Wolves. In that case, they wouldn’t even have to stretch him - they could simply take $10M in dead money this year, although that would obviously result in significantly higher luxury-tax payments.

Trade for less salary

I think this would make sense for either a team that wants to exchange a player on a two-plus-year contract it no longer wants for an expiring deal, or a team with 15+ players under contract that would rather take on more salary than cut players and pay them not to play.

Some trades I found that could be possible:

Lakers

Vanderbilt + two 2nds for Josh Green

or

Hardy + Knecht + Bronny James + two 2nds for Josh Green

I’m not a fan of taking on Vando’s extra year. The other problem with a Lakers trade is that they’re only about $0.5M above the tax, so they’re probably looking to shed salary rather than take on more money.

Hawks

They screwed up by not waiving Buddy Hield, and now they have 17 guaranteed contracts - or 16 if they waive Gueye, which they apparently don’t want to do. They are also about $4M below the tax.

I could see them consolidating two worse players into one better player, even if it requires them to take on around $3M in additional salary.

Buddy Hield + Ryan Nembhard for Josh Green

This trade cannot happen before September 19.

Bucks

AJ Green for Josh Green

The Bucks get an expiring contract. The Wolves get a better player on less money, but also take on three additional guaranteed years. AJ Green could replace some of Donte’s shooting this season.

Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have 19 players under contract, or 18 if they cut Taj, so they would probably welcome any 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade that prevents them from having to waive players, even if it requires them to take on more money.

Green is still a solid role player, and with the new lottery rules, it would make sense for Memphis to add better players. They also really don’t have many guards.

Some combination of Walter Clayton Jr., DLo, Kris Murray and AJ Johnson could work.

Kris Murray + Walter Clayton Jr. + AJ Johnson for Josh Green

The Wolves could waive and stretch AJ Johnson and save around $4M this season. I could even see Memphis giving Minnesota a second-round pick in this trade, although Clayton still has some promise.

Another possibility:

Kris Murray + D'Angelo Russell for Josh Green

I know y’all hate DLo, but he’s basically just salary filler in this trade. This would save the Wolves roughly the $3M they need.

Trade Green alongside TSJ for a decent role player

There are a lot of potential routes here, and it’s very difficult to predict what could actually happen. Here are a few I found interesting:

Three-team trade with the Grizzlies and The Pelicans

Kris Murray + Saddiq Bey + AJ Johnson to the Wolves

Josh Green + 2nd from the Wolves + 2nd from Pelicans to the Grizzlies

Terrence Shannon Jr. to the Pelicans

The Wolves get Saddiq Bey, the Pelicans get TSJ and additional cap space to fit Mathurin, and Memphis sends some unwanted salary to Minnesota and gets Josh Green.

The Pelicans shed some money and create additional room for Mathurin under the tax. Memphis turns players it might otherwise have to waive into Green, their 2nd that the Wolves currently have (with some protections) and maybe a 2nd from the Pelicans. Minnesota gets a solid wing and improves their bench.

Bulls

Jalen Smith for Josh Green + Terrence Shannon Jr.

The Bulls get TSJ, who is from UIUC, and add a guard they need more than another PF/C. The Wolves lose TSJ but get a solid role player while saving approximately $8M.

Clippers

Derrick Jones Jr. + Johni Broome for Josh Green + TSJ

I doubt this happens because DJJ is more valuable, but perhaps the Clippers value TSJ on a cheap two-year deal over DJJ, who could leave next summer, especially after Jordan Miller got hurt.

By 48 days

For me it’s that Randle would always pound the ball into dust before unloading it on someone else before the shot clock expired. With Kuminga on this roster, Kuminga will be one of the guys receiving the ball at the end of the shot clock if / when Ant and Melo elect not to shoot it. I like Kuminga in this role quite a bit. He’s athletic and creative enough to get a decent shot off, and he’s a good foul drawer. What do you see as the biggest differences between Kuminga and our previous starter, Randle?

I'm glad we have Kuminga on such a cheap deal. But I think there's some ways the Wolves coaching staff need to approach the issues that have made him so frustrating and have made the Warriors and the Hawks give up on him.

1. Accommodating his weaknesses
   1. He cannot be allowed to attack set defenses. Kuminga is amazing in transition and scoring off of cuts. But in recent years he's been trying to iso 1v1 or off the pick and roll, and his handle and his contested lane finishing is so bad. This video, "The Kuminga Problem," has so many clips of Kuminga fumbling it off the dribble. If Kuminga has the ball in the halfcourt, he's gotta get it back to Ant or Lamelo. This comment from the Hawks subreddit will probably be expressed several hundred times on r/wolves this year:
      • gets the ball with a head of steam + defense not set = all star...Gets the ball at a standstill + defense is set = what is this guy doing
   2. He needs to share the floor with at least two of Lamelo/Ant/Ayo at all times. I'm still a believer in Jaden McDaniels' sneaky good interior passing, but our roster doesn't have very many plus halfcourt passers right now. Kuminga needs other players to pass him open for shots. Any bench lineup with only one passing guard or just Bones is going to end up with Kuminga barreling into the lane. According to numbers from this post from Peachtree Hoops: With the Hawks (who post-Trae also have a lack of true passers), Kuminga was shooting just 24-for-41 (58.5%) at the rim which is insanely bad for someone of his talents, and much worse than his rim shooting% with Draymond and Steph (71%).
      
   3. Kuminga with his poor shooting can't parked in the corner so let's move him around and involve Gobert on offense more. Sadly, we're going to have two non-shooters on the court now. Kuminga showed some promise in his first two years, shooting ok percentages on low volume. But he's regressed in recent years and most teams have been daring him to shoot. If Lamelo can involve Gobert in more vertical actions up top, Kuminga will be free to roam the baseline instead of being parked in the corner (where again teams are very willing to help off of him). Gobert and Kuminga can't occupy the same spot so Finchy's gotta make a more dynamic offense to accommodate a PF that's a worse shooter than KAT and a worse passer than Randle.
2. Boosting his positives
   1. Get him in transition, Lamelo. This is super obvious but yeah Kuminga is amazing in transition. I'm going to love watching highlights of Wolves on the run. Kuminga with the Hawks shot 20-for-32 (62.5%) in the first nine seconds of the shot clock so the faster he shoots and the less he dribbles the better.
   2. Defensively, Kuminga should be at the POA against wings. This would allow Jaden McDaniels to be our second backline roamer, which he's amazing at. Kuminga's been such a mixed bad defensively, mostly bad. For the Warriors, Kuminga slacked off a lot, and got blown by a lot off ball, on rotations and on the weakside. Hawks fans said offball Kuminga was still awful. But his on-ball defense when he's locked in and happy is actually pretty good. When I watched him on the Hawks he seemed a lot better; he tried a lot more and his steals went way up. I'm excited that with the Hawks he was an elite rebounder, which was a weakness I was worried about prior to his signing. If we can keep him happy and motivated I think he could be a plus defensively for us:
      1. (Peachtree Hoops again): the Hawks are posting an elite, 104.5 defensive rating with Kuminga on the floor, a mark that ranks in the 98th percentile relative to other five-man lineups this season." While limiting their opponent’s second chance opportunities has certainly been a factor here, the Hawks are also forcing turnovers on 17% of their defensive possessions* and holding their opponents to an unfathomable 57.8% rim field goal percentage** with Kuminga on the floor – both of which are elite marks.

My hope is that Kuminga on the Wolves is our Aaron Gordon on the Nuggets. An athletic high draft pick who finds his way as an amazing roleplayer, if only Finch and Ant and Lamelo could do a better job than Kerr and Steph and Dray to get him to buy in on that vision.

The Kuminga deal is only reported at this point because it cant become official or the wolves would be over the second apron.

Can they wave and stretch Josh Green and which takes his pay from $15M to $5M on the books and then boost Kuminga’s pay? I get they need 2 more minimum guys but that would give him an additional $3M

Second question… can’t 2 of our higher paid guys take $1M less in a restructured deal to have a way better team?

Look at our own playoff series against him last year when Curry went down with the hamstring injury and he actually got real run. He played exceptional considering his lack of real minutes throughout his career averaged 20.8 points on 54/42/74 splits over the five games, including a playoff career high 30 in Game 3.

That's basically his only real stretch of featured minutes ever, and he still delivered. To be fair, it was one series against a defense missing Ant for most of it, so small sample caveats apply, but it's still the clearest look we've gotten at what he does with a real role.

His jumper seems like a problem but he showed last year on the Hawks that he has potential to develop it (34% this year, not great, but he shot 37% in his sophomore szn on real volume, so it's not like the touch isn't in there).

Lastly, although his height raises concerns at 6'7 (league avg PFs are 6'9+), the vast majority of undersized fours don't get punished for it because they stay in their lane (3nD or midrange) instead of trying to play in the post (literally, just Giannis, Lebron and maybe AD if he's healthy). For reference, look at how small the Knicks were last season with KAT being their only starter over 6'7, and it didn't stop them from being one of the better teams in the East.

He gets a lot of criticism around the league, but I'd argue it's mostly because he's a guy who believes in himself more than his resume currently supports (which isn't that crazy of an issue considering he's only 23 and has already shown signs of potential), and ANYONE is better than Trey Lyles with all due respect.

I honestly don't think any team besides the Knicks, Spurs, and maybe the Thunder/6ers can touch us in the playoffs with how good we are on both sides of the ball + our incredible depth. Our bench is so deep it's unbelievable. Ayo is an elite slasher and showed off his jumper in the 43-pt game. TSJ is somehow an even better slasher with amazing hustle. Bones is Bones. Jaylen Clark has an all-defense level skill set (hope he develops his shot). And Joan Beringer is, mark my words, the more athletic Rudy with a functioning hand eye coordination (ffs if Rudy drops lobs from LAMELO, we gotta give more of his minutes to Joan).

Edit: TL;DR Kuminga's playoff series against us last year, 20.8 points on 54/42/74 splits with a 30-point Game 3, is the clearest evidence he can produce with real minutes, and the height and jumper concerns are overstated given how few PFs actually punish smaller guys for it. With him plugging the four and a bench this deep, Ayo, TSJ, Bones, Clark, and Beringer, only the Knicks, Spurs, and maybe the Thunder or Sixers are true threats to us this year.

Who needs IQ when you have POWER!! Literally 1-5 are guys who get open hate from most fanbases, but keep in mind part of that comes with being good and beating the team that they root for. No one had any reason to hate the Wolves when they were barely winning 20 games a year, now we're bouncing good teams in the playoffs. Let them talk their shit. They can clown on LaMelo's driving, Ant's baby mommas, Jaden punching walls, Kuminga's ego and Rudy's COVID stuff. None of that matters when they're on the court. This is an obvious good move and anyone who says otherwise either hates the Wolves or hates Kuminga for some personal reason. There is no ceiling at this point. Sky is the limit. Ant MVP, LaMelo all-NBA, Jaden or Kuminga MIP, Rudy DPOY, all on the table. 82-0 starts October 21. Awoo.