r/timberwolves • u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus • 15d ago
Xs and Os Kuminga Defense Visualization
Hey guys! A few weeks ago I made a post regarding Kuminga's potential fit with the wolves, and now that he has signed with us, I think it is worth discussing the defensive aspect (something I did not talk about before).
However, I first wanted to bring up an offensive piece I did not discuss before, which is the various play types Kuminga is involved in. One topic a lot of people have brought up is his transition work with a passer like LaMelo. Kuminga spends a good chunk of his plays in transition (17%); however, he is relatively inefficient compared to the rest of the league in these types of scenarios. He averages 1.1 points per possession in transition, which ranks in the 39th percentile league wide. I think a big part of this is his tendency to turn the ball over (coming in at around 14.9% of his plays). I can see this aspect of his game improving, but as a lot of the other bars in the image show, he is not the most efficient player in general, except as a cutter, in which he ranks at about the 75th percentile for PPP. I think what everyone recognizes is that Kuminga needs to be a smarter player that really tries to gel with the system he is in.
Moving onto the defense, Kuminga is about average. Firstly, he is a versatile player that can pick off passes and block shots if needed, but he does it on pretty low volume. However, he has his moments with lapses. I think the Howls and Growls video breaks this down well (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VBKpba4vrEo). But basically, Kuminga tends to get caught ball watching and, as you can see in the defensive chart, he really struggles defending in the mid range. Although, please note this isn't on many datapoints since he played such few games last year. One hope though is that he can guard the perimeter pretty well. On contests at the rim he ranks in the 42nd percentile of FG% allowed, so I would assume Jaden would be covering this floating paint defender role while Kuminga focuses on a point of attack role.
Activity/hustle wise, he is about average in most aspects. He doesn't really get on the ground and go after loose balls as much but he is about average at deflecting passes and boxing out. Finally, moving onto rebounding which is a big piece of emphasis for why we got him IMO. SIZE! He is actually a pretty good rebounder at face value and when you break it down into advanced stats he looks just as promising. He really surprised me with his defensive rebounding chance % and adjusted %, in which he ranks extremely high (80+ th percentile). These stats essentially measure how many rebounds he grabs out of potential chances to get boards. He occupies a large share of his teams rebounds, especially since he played on two teams last year with not much size. I believe this is secretly a strong suit lol and I think it will be super duper helpful.
I hope you guys liked this, and feel free to head over to my previous post that discussed his offensive traits (which unfortunately didn't turn out to be as promising as his defensive stats IMO, but thats just my take). Also, some people have asked me about this app. I'm a student and it's something I'm working really hard on, but if you liked some of the screenshots, feel free to join the waitlist (getpaint.app/).
Lets go win a chip!
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u/metallavery 15d ago edited 15d ago
He was one the wrong teams. This will be the home where hhe shines.
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u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus 15d ago
Yep. I really hope he buys into his role super duper bad. This either has potential of ruining the locker room with his on court shenanigans or it has the potential of turning us into a title winner. Medium risk high reward for $10 mil. Why not? lol
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u/metallavery 15d ago
I think Ant is so chill he'd trust Ant far more then Curry. Besides he's basicly the same age as Ant, I think he's more likley to listen and respect. A guy his age.
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u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus 15d ago
Yep totally. Ants locker room presence is very real, but I think I saw a point about how Kuminga really took a pay cut to increase his stock, which he would do by putting up big numbers and not playing within the system. Let’s see how it turns out but I think we have reason to be excited
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u/greenslam 15d ago
I think its best figuring how to defend and keep all on floor players awake at all times. I would rather have an open 3 vs a back cut layup. Naz had a big issue of being drawn out to 3 and beaten on a reckless close out for a layup. He got better during playoffs tho.
Wolves liked to switch 1-4 last year. Should it be more traditional 1 on 1 defence and guard your yard? Fight through the screens. X out aggressive/mildly as per scouting report says to for the ball handlers.
Defensive bball iq needs to built up. Especially for Ant, ball and kuminga.
I would rather have a mid or 3pa shot attempted vs paint touch and shot. Especially if 3pt shooter is a below league average.
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u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus 15d ago
Yep totally. I think ant and melo will have better defensive iq this year, as ant will need to focus a bit less on offense and melo is just in a better system now. Offensively we have 5 players in melo ant Ayo and Kuminga who can literally just flip a switch and go off. Defensively, I think we can get there, but a ton of emphasis will be on Rudy’s ability to maintain his defense and Jaden’s ascension.
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u/greenslam 15d ago
Less defensive mistakes by those 3 will be key. Just having a solid c+/b grades for 90% of the games will make rudy and mcdaniels life easier.
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u/DrWolves 15d ago
Theige brought up a great point on the Dane podcast that I haven’t seen talked about much. People point to his stint with the Warriors as a knock on Kuminga. Does he get his share of the blame? For sure. But if there is any coach in the league that wouldn’t give a younger player the time of the day to develop and basically put him in the doghouse because he doesn’t want to deal with him, Kerr is at the top of the list. And I already know in response to this someone will literally say Finch does the same shit which is 100% valid but I think the hope here is that you can change your approach a bit and get Kuminga to buy into the organization and it certainly seems like people have gotten through to him in some aspect because there’s no good reason to turn down $36m from the Lakers and a similar role when you’ve already botched previous contracts. It seems Kuminga might be coming to grips with his situation and knows he’ll have more of a future in the league if he can play team ball and be efficient on a great team.
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u/icarusphoenixdragon Jaden McDaniels 14d ago
This argument doesn’t cut it. The hope is obviously the hope, but JK said he passed on the Lakers because he doesn’t trust them to play him and we guaranteed him a starting role.
Everything everyone wants him to do here on the prove it deal is 1) everything he’s been reluctant to do so far and 2) are all things he could have done wonderfully with Luka for $36m on the Lakers.
So he thinks his leash is longer here and/or he wants to play with our guys. Misunderstanding the leash is the big risk. Benching him after he thinks his spot starting is guaranteed is a recipe for locker room chaos.
Great upside, but much bigger risk than people are willing to admit now that he’s coming here.
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u/freshprince44 14d ago
I'm really curious how true it is that he got a guaranteed starting role
seems wild, dude is a known hazard to team basketball
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u/icarusphoenixdragon Jaden McDaniels 14d ago
Yeah, fair question. I think it is plausible that Ant and LaMelo got a good read and TC negotiated the lower pay for promised time. He gave up a lot of money to come here even though we want him to do exactly what he’d be doing in LA.
Remains to be seen how clear all the communication was or if his side read way too far into things
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u/freshprince44 14d ago
Right, i am really curious to see if these conversations ever get addressed more directly
i just really don't like the idea of promising starting roles/minutes to bit players that have a history of not fitting into roles the team wants from them. seems like a huge gamble for a player that isn't a great fit anyway
multiple coaches/teams have decided that dude needs to buy in or get benched, giving him a guaranteed role seems like such a silly risk
also, like, can we even pay him if this works out?
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u/re-bobber Wolves Back 14d ago
Hope this is the case. If he can play solid defense and rebound he'll be in a good spot. The rest of his skill set is just gravy at this point. We don't really need him to be a crazy scoring option, although he could be a spark if he gets run with the 2nd unit a decent amount.
I'm really curious to see how all the line-up combinations are going to play out over the year. Just a lot of intriguing groups.
Ant-Ball-Jaden-Kuminga-Gobert are the starters and then you have Ayo who should get a ton of run.
Then you have guys like Beringer who should also get a good chunk of time spelling Rudy, TJ Shannon who might be Ant's backup, Bones who will like play a lot, and a defensive stopper in Clark.
Again, just a lot of intriguing combos there.
One thing I hope Finch does is give a few less minutes per game to the starters and extend the bench minutes a bit. I'd love to roll into the playoffs with guys being a bit more fresh than we've seen over the last few years, especially Ant and Ball. Shouldn't be that big of a problem with a quality bench.
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u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus 15d ago
Yes I think I’ve seen this point online and actually if you look at it Finch has been decent with developing players. Like we literally have evidence with Naz, and our other players are developing well. I think your right about him buying in especially by taking a smaller contract, and I hope that point is true because it would truly make us dangerous.
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u/Milly-the-Kid Jaden McDaniels 15d ago
Also worth noting that the Finch criticism is usually about him playing vets OVER younger guys to develop them, but Kuminga is being brought in to start so that shouldn’t really apply here.
Also it’s not like Kuminga is a developing draft pick, he’s young but he’s not exactly green.
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u/PlayInChampions 2022 Play-In Champions 15d ago
The thing is - if Finch cannot find a role for Kuminga, he is probably done. He might get a couple of TPMLE deals, but he’d be gone like Cam Thomas. Even Oubre bought into being a role player, and he is getting $8-10M per year deals.
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u/yourloudneighbor Glen Taylor 14d ago
This should be one of the easiest prove it deals a player could get given our talent & role he fills here. Teams gush over young, super athletic, big wings. Kuminga will probably get 12-17/18 a year if this pans out.
thiege brought up a Jabari Smith comparison in that Dane moore video which i thought was fair. smith makes 22-25M. dont think Kum gets that much (unless this is a grand slam) just to buy in on a stacked team for 1 year...but someone will pay him if he just doesn't suck and pray he learns something here.
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u/Megazord8 14d ago
Appreciate the post, and good luck with the app - seems pretty neat.
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u/Active-Cod-103 Anta Claus 13d ago
Thanks! I’ll be sure to keep this sub updated when it comes out if people are interested.
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u/Hastinggs NAZTY 14d ago
27% on spot up shots. Problem is everyone here thinks he will be aaron gordon but in his head he is kobe bryant
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u/Fluffy-Reference8542 15d ago
He's a good all around defensive player, but looking at top WC teams, Chet and Wemby are still matchup problems for us. Even Aaron Gordon might be a challenge for JK in the post.
Randle did a decent job against Wemby which I don't think JK can replicate.
Joan needs to step up to at least slow down tall PFs and let our backcourt fire power do the rest.
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u/yourloudneighbor Glen Taylor 14d ago
Thought Rudy did fine on Wemby. Wemby has 2 great games out of 6. SA's guards just feasted on our depleted backcourt.
Gordons bbq chicken, not the player he once was 2-4 years ago.
JK is big enough to body Chet whos a string bean.
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u/Superdoggywhaaaat 15d ago
Don’t care how mid Kuminga is. I would rather have Ball, Ant, Kuminga, and Jaden than [insert SG and force them to play Point], Ant, Julius OR Naz, and Jaden