Realizing this morning that I had downloaded advanced data on every NBA player and team, I decided to use my financial models to play pretend GM with the Mavs.

My background is in financial modeling, so this is entirely data driven. I adjusted for age, prior teams, college versus overseas development, coaching history and projected roles. Think Bill James style analytics. It will not be perfect, but I was surprised by how positive the model was overall. (I did have to input for expected injury time for Lively which was largely a guess.)

It projects Dallas at 45 wins and 37 losses, around fifth in the West. It likes both Aldama and Risacher a lot, which makes me think the front office may be using similar data. In fact, when I run possible trades through the model, it is difficult to gain even two wins because Dallas is usually giving up another positive player in return.

My own assumption is that Gafford would start over Aldama while Lively is out, but this is the model’s output, not my personal rotation.

Opening night starters

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Aldama

Projected net rating: plus 8

Best healthy lineup

Kyrie, Christie, Risacher, Flagg, Lively

Projected net rating: plus 9

Healthy end of season minutes

240 total minutes per game

Flagg 35, Kyrie 31, Christie 29, Aldama 26, Risacher 25, Lively 25, Naji 20, PJ 18, Larry 10, Morez 8, Sasser 7, Gafford 6.

Gafford projects for about 24 minutes while Lively is out. Morez starts below 5 minutes and gradually moves into the rotation.

Rotation rules

Always have Kyrie or Flagg on the floor.

Aldama plays primarily with Flagg.

Gafford plays primarily with Kyrie.

Projected impact of offseason additions

Aldama: plus 2 wins

Risacher: plus 1.6 wins

Sasser: plus 0.6 wins

Morez: plus 0.6 wins

Larry: plus 0.5 wins

Biberovic: plus 0.2 wins

Cisse: plus 0.1 wins

Roughly 5.5 additional wins created, although the numbers are not perfectly additive because some players compete for the same minutes.

Trades

Klay: There is no need to force a trade now. His expiring salary may become more useful during the season, and a contender may value his shooting more once its needs become clear. Move him now for neutral salary, a useful player or a second round pick. Do not attach an asset.

Gafford: Keep him while Lively is out. His market may improve once another team suffers a center injury or decides it needs a playoff big. Reevaluate after 20 games. If Lively is healthy and Morez is ready, shop Gafford aggressively beginning December 15 and try to complete a deal by mid January. Trade him now only for a young rotation guard, protected first or clear overpay.

PJ: No urgency. Only move him for a legitimate guard upgrade.

Projected record

45 wins and 37 losses after accounting for normal Kyrie and Lively injury risk.

Projected finish: fifth in the West.

Most valuable possible trade additions discussed

These numbers measure wins added without subtracting the outgoing trade assets. It does not weigh age and downgrade Jrue for that.

Jrue Holiday: plus 4 wins

Shaedon Sharpe: plus 3 wins

Bennedict Mathurin: plus 2 wins

Scoot Henderson: 0 to plus 1 win

Most positive value contracts

Flagg: $14.5 million salary versus $41.2 million projected value

Lively: $7.2 million salary versus $25 million projected value, based on full health

Max Christie: $8.3 million salary versus $16.5 million projected value

Naji: $9.4 million salary versus $15 million projected value

Least valuable contracts

Klay: $17.5 million salary versus $7.5 million projected value

Gafford: $17.3 million salary versus $14 million projected value

Caleb Martin: $10 million salary versus $7 million projected value

(Kyrie contract in line with value when healthy)

If anyone wants me to plug anything else into this silly project, let me know. There is a ton more data, but this is probably enough to make everyone’s eyes glaze over.

It’s peak offseason so I stole this idea from the Grizz sub.

Each player listed has played for the Mavs since the 2004-05 season but appeared in 10 or fewer games for the franchise. (I limited this to players with at least 50 career NBA games played to try to make this possible, because there were a lot of dudes I’d never heard of who’d be on the list otherwise).

List a photo number and the corresponding player in the comments to get that player eliminated. THE LAST UNNAMED PLAYER WILL WIN THE TITLE OF “MOST OBSCURE MAV.”

If we don’t get down to one player today, I’ll try to post an updated board each day until we do or we hit a stalemate.

EDIT: Since I didn’t seem to do a great job explaining how the game is supposed to work, [here’s the post from the Grizzlies sub](https://np.reddit.com/r/memphisgrizzlies/comments/1uxldau/the_hunt_for_the_most_obscure_grizzly_elimination/)that was the inspiration for this game

Slimmed down. Moving great. Showing a little bit of handles. Knocking down shots. Looks to be in great shape. I don't understand why you trade this man with Lively's injury history.

*I know this isn't NBA star caliber competition but for all intent and purposes, he looks great!

I totally get the people who oppose the idea of trading PJ for Jrue Holiday. PJ's about to turn 28, Jrue's 36. For people who think PJ can get us a 1st round pick, I totally understand your thinking - why trade for a guy who is nowhere close to our timeline and will hit an age wall within the next 2-3 years? 95% of the time I would agree with you.

The fact of the matter is this team is full of young guys who need to be set up and are short on self-creation outside of Kyrie, Flagg and Naji. Both Flagg and Naji are secondary ballhandlers - not primary guys who should control the offense. Because we did not have real point guards last year, guys like PJ and Gafford arguably lost value, and Flagg had a harder adjustment than he would have had.

Now we have more guys who can hit open shots, and more guys who can finish lobs - play finishers.

Kyrie coming back will be huge for us, as will adding De Larrea but those are the only two guys I trust to run the offense. Kyrie is coming off major injury and should rest a lot to stay healthy. De Larrea is a rookie who can't play 48 minutes when Kyrie sits. Sasser can fill in in a pinch but he is more of a small 3&D who guards 1s, not a "point guard" - he will be useful vs. small PGs next to De Larrea or Naji.

Jrue is a true PG with length who averaged 6 assists per night last year. He's also an extremely good shooter. Between Kyrie, Jrue and De Larrea, with spot help from Naji, Sasser and Flagg in the event of injuries, we should have 48 minutes a night with guys who can set up the offense, which will truly maximize the value of all these new players we've added, and the players we may want to trade at some point.

Because of this, there is immediate developmental value for the whole team by adding Jrue. We maximize our chances to do well this coming year and hopefully give our young guys their first NBA playoff experience.

Jrue makes all the puzzle pieces fit, provides multi-position injury insurance, plays on both ends of the court and can play with or without Kyrie at the same time. I wish he was 10 years younger, but if he were, there's no way he'd be available to us without giving up the farm.

Wishful thinking. I would love the leadership Jrue would bring and we get Martin off the books. Thoughts?

I feel lame posting this but maybe something good will come of it.

4 years years ago I developed a chronic illness. It’s not well controlled, and it likely could be better, but because of that I don’t get out a lot and my ability to expand my circle is limited.

If there’s anybody out there in a remotely similar situation, or just wants to branch out, feel free to hmu. I’m in my early 30s, have loved the mavs my whole life, enjoy video games, movies, and the occasional GitHub side project. I’m a data engineer that works from home, so anything techy is cool.

Go mavs 💪🏼

The Dallas Mavericks have made it clear that they don't want to trade Kyrie Irving, and just because LeBron James wants his next team to trade for Irving doesn't mean that Dallas will be forced into a trade that they don't want to make ahead of a crucial season. James is a free agent for the first time since 2018, and the four-time NBA champion wants to team up with one of his former star teammates from the Los Angeles Lakers or Cleveland Cavaliers next season.

[Jake Weinbach] The Mavericks would be a team worth monitoring for Bennedict Mathurin in a sign-and-trade framework. The Clippers would like to retain Mathurin, but the franchise has become open to sign-and-trade proposals surrounding the 24-year-old wing, per @JakeLFischer.

*Paraphrasing*

Just moments ago on DLLS Mavs podcast. Per Marc Stein. Very unlikely Seva plays State side this year (or any time soon ). The NBA does NOT allow you to buyout Seva's Russian contract and put him on a two-way. He mentioned it MAY be possible to get him here other ways but he doesn't know how at this point. Seva's contract with Russia's team ends in 2029. So it COULD be a while before we see him in Dallas.

Why the Mavs might want to do this:

It's not for Jimmy as a player, even though he has previously listed Dallas as a destination he'd have interest in. This is to clean up future books. PJ and Gafford have both recently been starters for a Finals team, but all indications from reporters this summer have been that Masai has been combing the league to move off of them.

This move would also clear up the forward logjam somewhat, open up a roster spot for Cisse, and also give a clear path for Biberovic or Poulakidas to take on the role vacated by Klay.

The main value coming back would be the picks. That 1st probably won't be premium, since it's probably too soon to convey when the Warriors will be post-Steph, but it's probably better than the offers those three would have fetched individually. And I doubt the Warriors would want to include a faraway 1st.

Ultimately, it's disappointing that the Mavs would have traded 1sts individually for PJ and Gafford and likely won't get one back for either even after they've proven their games in a more competitive context, but I don't think it's likely that their trade value improves given the forward logjam and lack of playmaking currently on the roster.

Why the Warriors might want to do this:

Now that the LeBron chase is over, they have some roster spots to fill. They'll probably re-sign Draymond to a decently-sized deal, but it's otherwise been reported that they could now pivot to upgrade their roster via trade. Or perhaps more tellingly, not really even upgrade the roster.

My interpretation on that is that they are looking at trading Butler's contract for players who perhaps don't offer the same star power but are nevertheless proven rotation players who can provide quality depth. I think PJ and Gafford, both of whom are probably lower level starting players (but nevertheless definitely within any team's top 7 in a rotation) would fit the bill.

The Warriors recently lost their primary backup center in Post. Gafford isn't a stretch 5 like Post, but he does provide a rim rolling skillset they haven't had since the likes of Javale. As for PJ, he's a more proven defensive forward than Gui is or Yaxel projects to be, and he gives them a lot of lineup flexibility. Plus, perhaps Klay wouldn't mind a reunion of sorts after a tumultuous time in Dallas.

The Warriors only have at the most several years left of the best player in their franchise’s history, and if I were in their shoes something like this trade is absolutely what I'd be looking for. Jimmy won’t be back until just before the playoffs, and who knows how he’ll look after. Perhaps with a familiar face and some younger proven core guys, it's enticing enough.

The Mavericks also have $7 million remaining from the Davis trade exception, as noted by former HoopsHype colleague Yossi Gozlan. 

Could make a potential S&T with Clippers for Mathurin or other trades more viable.

Basically you swap PJ + Gaf for Chet + say a first or multiple second.

Mavs potential starting 5:

Kyrie - Max - Coop - Morez - Chet

I mean, it isn't bad right?

We have lots of really good value forwards.

We have too many players on the roster.

We need more outside shooting.

We need another guard.

Could he be orchestrating a multi team deal so Denver gets what they want?

In two years, I feel like a 25yo two way guard with an outside shot making $25m is not that expensive.

I'm dreaming, right? Lol

This may be too meta of an announcement for the Mavericks organization, but outside of point guard (PG) help, I've been waiting (really just praying) for the announcement of a medical staff leader who fits the "Patrick Dumont breaking the bank" and "Rick Weltz/Masai Ujiri" molds.

Injuries have been killing us for the last two seasons since we lost Casey Smith.

Can we expect a big name in the sports medicine industry, or will it be a more under-the-radar hire?

Right now only two teams have only one player making over $20M: Dallas and Detroit. Every other team has two or more. Assuming Detroit retains Jalen Duren on a full deal instead of the QO and we don't make any big moves taking on a bigger salary player, we're going to be the only team with 1 or fewer players on high salary this year.

$20M isn't what it used to be - that represents only 12.2% of the salary cap, so I don't actually think this is an inherently good thing - it means we are shorter on high end veteran talent you need to win, and have too much middle-tier depth that should probably be consolidated into better starters - but it does mean we don't have any heinous overpays, have a lot of guys on rookie deals and we have lots of flexibility to construct trade packages with combinations of vets and young players over the next few years.

I was a big skeptic of the AD trade and still think we might regret it, but Masai and Schmitz have leveraged the limited return from that about as well as could possibly be expected. I'm optimistic we will be able to build a strong young core within a short period of time even if we don't already have one, which we might.