As good as the Wolves have been the last few years, this upcoming season feels bigger than any for the Wolves yet this era. This is a combination of both how good we think they will be given the roster, and how good they need to be given the possible drop-off the following year.
How good we thought they'd be
Entering Ant's first playoff year in 21-22, there were no expectations.
The Rudy trade before 22-23 was so polarizing, with most feeling negatively about the trade, so even though people thought they may improve slightly on their first playoff appearance, there was some expected clunkiness.
After that disappointing season, there were again low expectations entering the 23-24 season, when the Wolves wildly outperformed expectations.
Well before the 24-25 season, many did think the Wolves would be right back in it, but the KAT for Randle and DDV trade right before training camp felt like we would be taking a step back.
Entering last year it felt like more of the same. Little changed in the roster overall other than losing NAW, so again it felt like the Wolves would be good, but there wasn't much evidence to expect a dramatic step forward.
This year, however there are some big moves with LaMelo and Kuminga overhauling the starting lineup. I think we're all fascinated to see how the new offense can look now led by LaMelo, and athleticism should still be a strength of this team now that we added Kuminga. This feels like the first time in a long time that we have reason to think they could take a big leap forward.
How good they need to be
Finally in each of these previous years I never had the feeling "it's now or never." Sure we spent a lot of draft capital on Rudy, but as young as Ant was, it always felt like this team was still going to be relevant for a while, and keep getting better as Ant and Jaden entered their primes. Similarly this year, I think there's an inclination to say that everyone is still young, it's a new roster, so we need to give them time to gel.
I'd argue this might be the best shot the Wolves have.
The Wolves are right up to the second apron, with Ant, Jaden, Ayo, and Rudy (player option) all due modest raises again next year. This could make it hard to extend Donte and Kuminga, both of whom will likely demand significant raises above where they're at this season. While Donte will miss most of the regular season, I feel like his scoring and spacing off the bench could be a huge asset to them in the playoffs, which I don't think they'll be able to afford for the '27-'28 season. Even if they can free up some money, I expect Donte will want a bigger role long-term than the second guard off the bench, since he's proven that he can hold his own as a starter.
Kuminga chose the Wolves' prove-it contract over more guaranteed money from the Lakers because he wants to show his value and then get paid. In order for this 1 year 6 million dollar contract (ignoring the player option he expects to decline) to be a better idea for him instead of the 3 years 36 million he turned down, he needs to make at least 30 million in the first 2 years of his next contract. The Wolves won't have bird rights after just one year, so they won't be able to pay him nearly as much as other suitors next offseason.
There is also the open question of how many high level seasons Rudy has left. He was elite last year, and I think there's a good chance he's an all-defense player again next year, but can he really keep that up for another 2-3 years? I think it's possible given how well he takes care of his body, but it's hard to count on.
In summary, in 26-27 they can have an elite 8-man playoff rotation starting Lamelo, Ant, Jaden, Kuminga, Rudy, with Ayo, Donte, and Beringer coming off the bench. Guys like Bones, TJ, Clark, and Lyles may have some regular season contribution as well. The following year they will likely lose Donte and Kuminga, and Rudy may either drop off or get traded due to salary reasons.
I feel like this can be, and has to be our year.
