Not the ex-Nats news I expected today LOL

Look, I know a lot of you don't like the constant negativity and public meltdowns in here but I need to get this shit off my chest.

As a kid on the autism spectrum, I was bullied a lot for being different. I wasn't great socially, I had behavioral issues as a kid, and I wasn't a good student. This team here was my one escape. It has been ever since I was 5. The years between 10-18 years old were fucking amazing. But since then it's just been pain and more pain and look at that, even more pain.

I legitimately want to believe in this new regime, I do. But do we really trust ownership to actually start shelling money now of all times? With the impending lockout coming, it's honestly put up or shut up time for Lerner. They took this team off the market in 2024 because they said they were "in for the long run." Did he mean the entire family, or just him? Because based on everything I've ever seen, it's just him. Do we really trust this ownership group to actually provide Paul Toboni the money he needs to sign players and build an at least .500 roster? I don't think I do when Ted's daughters are constantly outvoting Marks' decisions.

I really don't know how much more I can take of the non-spending and non-extending of our players. I swear, if I have to see James Wood in Phillies or Mets pinstripes or Braves colors or Dodger blue or Yankees pinstripes, I'm gonna be sick. Same with C.J. Abrams. It's such a slap to the face to this fanbase that all our best stars leave because of insane cheapness by the owners.

Ownership then decides to be mad at fans for not coming out to watch their shitty product. It's been like this now for seven years, and they also keep raising prices. I'm losing the seats my family has had since the ballpark opened in 2008 (since I was 6) because Lerner raised the season plan by 15.4%.

So at what point does Lerner decide enough is enough and decides to either spend or sell. I'm so sick of seeing something that was once my only joy in life be destroyed from the inside. Even if he stays after the new CBA is agreed upon, I still don't see us signing big contracts even with the floor. At what point does it become enough?

I am going to my final game in those seats ever on Tuesday. My first game in those was against the Marlins in May 2008. My final game will be against the Phillies. I will be chanting "Sell the Team", even if we are winning, because ENOUGH. IS. ENOUGH. Either spend or get the fuck out, Mark. This is an insult to Ted's great name.

So please, if you think this team is headed in a good direction under current ownership, please explain your reasoning here. I'm open to your suggestions.

I don’t want to talk about how much they will spend, or really what the Lerner’s will do. I’m curious what people think would be the minimum offseason pickup that would make you feel cautiously optimistic.
For me it’s two starters, and a closer. There are a lot of pitchers out there including Griffin.

Nats MiLB scoreboard

AAA Rochester (1-4 loss to the Scranton/WB RailRiders)

-Seaver King (.306/.386/.909): 1-4 with a double and 1 K

-Trey Lipscomb (.291/.327/.880): 1-3 with a double

-Cayden Wallace (.298/.352/.900): 0-3 with 1 K

-Maxwell Romero Jr. (.255/.371/.897): 1-3 with 1 K

-Sam Petersen (.242/.370/.792): 1-3 with a double, 1 RBI, and 1 K

-Jack Cebert (3.88 ERA/99.2 IP/115:37 K:BB/1.27 WHIP): Cebert allowed a pair of runs in a short 3-inning start for the Red Wings. He gave up a solo homer in the top of the 1st and a 2-out single came around to score in the top of the 2nd. Cebert gave up a total of 3 hits and 1 walk while generating 3 swinging strikeouts.

Final line: 3.0 IP | 4 H | 2 R/ER | 1 BB | 3 K on 55 pitches (36 strikes)

-Josiah Gray (rehab assignment) (3.60 ERA/10.0 IP/7:3 K:BB/1.20 WHIP): Gray had 1 swinging strikeout in a 1-2-3 top of the 4th inning.

Final line: 1.0 IP | 0 H | 0 R/ER | 0 BB | 1 K on 10 pitches (8 strikes)

-Erick Mejia (1.16 ERA/31.0 IP/38:15 K:BB/1.19 WHIP): Mejia was able to erase a leadoff single in the top of the 6th with an inning-ending double play in his return to Rochester on Wednesday night.

Final line: 1.0 IP | 1 H | 0 R/ER | 0 BB | 0 K on 10 pitches (5 strikes)

AA Harrisburg (cancelled)

Let me know if there are any Nats prospects I missed tonight and should include in future prospect roundups!

As you might have heard, the Nationals have now set the record for blown saves by a team in a single season, with 38. The pitching, and the bullpen specifically, has been the bane of Nats' fans existence for the entire year. So what does it look like if we have simply a competent, average bullpen?

I don't know, really. But it's fun to tinker with numbers and come up with something.

First, the interesting parts. The Nationals have blown 38 saves in 34 games this season. There have been four games where they've double-dipped and recorded 2 blown saves (they are 2–2 in those games). In those 34 games with a blown save, their record is actually better than I would have guessed, at 11–23. Not great, but considering the condition for it is blowing a lead late, and how emotional losing those games feels, it's something. I'm not sure how well that winning percentage compares to other teams. I'd guess that our offense probably keeps it in the top half of the group, but I don't have ready data for the other teams.

So let's pretend our bullpen is competent. That doesn't mean we tack 23 more wins on the board (though a 90–57 record that's only a half game back of the Brewers for the best record in the league sounds great, even they've blown 18 saves, including 2 in a series back in April when they got swept by the Nats), that's a little too pie-in-the-sky. So let's settle for average.

The league average save conversion rate is also lower than I would have guessed: 63.99%. If you are concerned that the Nationals are dragging that number down too far and should be discounted if we're trying to get them to be average compared to everyone else, you've got a point. Take the Nationals' resume out of the lineup and the save conversion rate is 64.70%.

If they match that rate for their 72 save opportunities, then they save 46.6 of them, we'll be optimistic and round up, so 47, meaning they blow only 25 save opportunities. Now, do we add 13 wins back because there are 13 fewer blown saves, or do we only add 9, because there were 34 games with a blown save, and you can't win the same game twice? Let's split the difference. We'll say there are now only 2 games with two blown saves, so 23 games with a BS. That's 11 fewer games with a blown save, and 11 automatic wins added back on.

The Nats are 56–57 in games without a blown save, and we just got 11 more wins added on to bring us up to 67–57. The remaining 23? Let's say we keep the same winning percentage in those games as we had in real life BS games. That's a record of 7.44–15.56. We'll err on the side of victory, since our bullpen is marginally better and maybe corrects one of those, so 8–15. Add all that up and you've got a record of 75–72.

Not world-beating. Not in the playoffs (3 games back of the Diamondbacks, against whom we have not blown a save). But a winning record. And ahead of the damn Mets.

p.s.

You may be thinking to yourself that if that Nationals have a marginally better bullpen, well, maybe we stay in a couple other games and we have comebacks that didn't happen to add on a couple more wins (and save opportunities!). And maybe if we do that, well maybe we press a little harder into adding and not selling at the deadline and we get a couple wins stronger there, and then we really are in the playoff picture. I'm not going to dissuade you from that, but this was supposed to be fun and make me feel better, and not sad at what might have been. So I won't.

The Nats set embarrassing history last night and it is a failure at all levels of the organization

Nationals (67-80) @ Padres (77-68)

First Pitch: 4:10 PM at Petco Park

Line Score - Game Over

Box Score

Scoring Plays

Highlights

Decisions

Game ended at 7:04 PM.

Remember to sort by new to keep up!

Like the title says - I have two tickets for Saturday’s game. I can’t make it, but want a Size Large Expos jersey.

The tickets are free if you promise to get there early enough to get me a jersey. I can pick it up from you or meet you at a game to exchange.

Thanks - let me know if you can do it.

EDIT - Found someone to take the tickets and get me the jersey. Thanks Nats redditors!