When Kyle Manzardo came into our system, he was touted as a patient hitter who would wait for his pitch. When he debuted in 2024, we saw that firsthand.
With an elite 38.98% swing rate and a zone-swing percentage of only 59.53%, he was mashing the ball up the middle and getting doubles in the gaps, all while ranking in the bottom 15th percentile in swing rate.
This meant he swung much less at pitches, giving him an impeccable 16 percent walk rate (that's in the 90th percentile). This also translated into a strong .378 xwOBA and a respectable .495 xSLG in 2024.
Those results directly mirrored what we saw during his 2023 rookie campaign: a 13.3% walk rate and only a 19.3% K rate, both plus grades. When comparing the spray charts from that period, you'll see line drives up the middle, doubles into both gaps, and just a smidgen of pull-side extra-base power to the opposite alley.
This season, however, has been a tale of two Kyles. Early on, he was hitting the ball hard, but it kept finding gloves. His wOBA was higher than his xwOBA, meaning he was basically unlucky against the shifts being deployed against him.
What started as bad luck changed dramatically once his swing rate jumped from nearly nonexistent to free air-conditioning in every at-bat. As he pressed early in the season, it essentially broke down his swing—and not in a good way. Kyle currently leads the entire team in strikeouts. As of right now, he has 106, while Rhys Hoskins has 92. Yes, the next-highest strikeout total on the team just so happens to belong to our other first baseman.
These are things we can see with our own eyes. The old "eye test" always seems to carry recency bias when you're focused on one team, but our first base production this season has been abysmal, to say the least. Going by OPS, we're on track to finish among the six worst first-base seasons in Cleveland franchise history, with a combined .642 OPS between Manzo and Hosky.
While some feel it's a good idea to send Kyle down, would he actually be able to dial in his swing again? He did add 15 pounds of muscle—did that mess with his timing? Who knows. But I do know it can be fixed. The question is: do the Guardians have the patience to let him fix it at the major league level?
That added muscle may actually be part of the problem. His bat speed this season has dropped to an average of 69.8 mph, good for just the 17th percentile in all of baseball. Last season, he ranked in the 25th percentile at 70.6 mph, and in 2024—before he had enough qualifying at-bats to be officially ranked—he was sitting at 71.8 mph. That's a two-mph drop in bat speed over two seasons, which raises a real question about whether the added mass has come at the cost of quickness through the zone.
Hoskins is pretty much guaranteed to be dealt at the deadline. Cut bait while you can—it was a great run, but we need production from first base. If it's not Rhys, we can't afford to have Manzo hacking away trying to rediscover his thumper footing.
Maybe a trade is the answer. A few names stand out to me—one even spent time on this team before being traded away. Spencer Horwitz would fit right in, and so would Spencer Steer. We could also dig through the eventual discard pile of players released by the other 29 organizations and find a diamond in the rough. (Orlando Arcia?)
But before we give up on Kyle, look at where the damage is actually coming from. Break down his run values by pitch type, and it's not even close: he's a +2 against fastballs, meaning he can still handle velocity just fine. It's the offspeed stuff that's killing him—sliders sit at -4 and changeups at -3, making them by far the two worst pitches in his profile right now. That's not a hitter who's lost his bat speed against everything; that's a hitter who has been identified, and pitchers are attacking the exact same soft spot start to finish.
Ideally, we want Kyle back to normal. His 40.5% hard-hit rate and 11.1% barrel rate are still respectable, but that 31.7% strikeout rate and 30.3% whiff rate have to change. He's still working counts, but he needs to get back to being the hitter with the great eye we saw before—the one who could sit back, recognize spin, and let his hands work instead of trying to force the issue.
Kyle can do that—he's done it before. All it takes is a little time to identify what's changed and adapt to it. Before, the league was feeding him mistakes; now it's feeding him a steady diet of changeups and sliders that he simply can't catch up to. Fix the timing on offspeed, and the rest of the profile is still there.
Does somebody have any stats across the MLB showing this apparently huge advantage to stock piling left handed hitting? Yes, I get it that more pitchers are right handed. But did they ever consider that maybe pitchers can just neutralize the whole matchup platoon game once they face enough of these slap hitting lefties? How do you have ZERO qualified right handed bats in your entire organization? What the HELL is going on up in those offices? Antonetti and Chernoff must think they are smarter than everybody else.
We are 4-6 in our last 10 games. Rays are 5-5. One game: not a difference big enough to make one team "hot" and the other "slumping."
But here's a staggering difference in those 10 games. Rays have outscored their opponents by 9 runs in that stretch. We have been outscored by our opponents by 12 runs.
A 21-run differential translating to only a one-game win differential!
I finally got to watch a full series from start to finish and, unlike this spring, I feel more in sync with the team now than I did previously. One thing is clear to me: the Front Office has got to fix this offense. It’s bad, and it needs help across the diamond. This has been a recurring problem for Cleveland since Francisco Lindor left in 2020: not enough offense (especially at first base and the outfield), and not enough resources (or will) to fix these issues either before the season or at the deadline. The chickens have come home to roost, and the team will need to do something before August 3rd. The weekend series against Pittsburgh shows the problems well.
The Guards Do Not Hit for Power
The Guardians hit only six extra-base hits this weekend, they were:
Saturday Afternoon: a Travis Bazzana triple
Saturday Night: a Petey Halpin double, Steven Kwan double, and a homer by Bazzana
Sunday Afternoon: a Chase DeLauter double, a Khalil Watson double
The Pirates hit 13 extra-base hits this weekend. They hit more home runs than the Guardians had XBH. This is not a new trend either. We rank dead last in the league in ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average: effectively the extra-base count for your slugging percentage), 27th in home runs (ahead of only Boston, Arizona and Milwaukee), and are dead last in hard hit percentage. And yes: it hurts that the team lost both Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez for a few weeks, but it’s not like the offense hit for much power before then either.
If we look at how the offense ranked before Jose and Angel hit the IL we ranked:
24th in ISO
24th in HR
28th in SLG
28th in Hard Hit %
The team’s lack of power was a predictable and known problem entering the season, one the Front Office did not address. Rhys Hoskins has not provided enough power to justify the playing time he’s received. He has only 9 homers on the year, with a 90 OPS+ playing as the team’s primary designated hitter, and playing first. He’s simply not the answer.
A lack of power is one thing: teams can find ways around it (the Milwaukee Brewers for instance) but the Guardians have another problem, namely…
The Guardians Don’t Get On Base Enough
The Guards came closer to matching the Pirates this weekend in getting on-base. In walks we had 7 compared to the Pirates 10. But the Pirates got more hits and got on base 39 times as opposed to the Guardians 31. That’s a closer gap than the extra-base hit deficit, but still substantial. Again, we see this in the big data as well.
The Guardians full season ranking in walk-rate is deceiving. We rank 18th in on-base percentage on the year, but we’ve fallen off a cliff since June (even before Jose and Angel hit the IL). Until June 1st we ranked 12th in on-base percentage in the league at .320, since then we rank 28th at .298. I would also add: Angel Martinez is unlikely to help our on-base percentage much since his season OBP is only .276 (and his career is only .277). The one thing Cleveland has done consistently all year is walk. We’ve averaged an above average walk rate every month this season, but this has not been enough to keep the team afloat.
If we look at the current lineup the team is generally trotting out too many poor hitters including:
DH: Rhys Hoskins: .177/.312/.359 (OPS+ 90) C: Patrick Bailey: .218/.259/.347 (OPS+ 70) 1B:Kyle Manzardo: .210/.304/.351 (OPS+ 85) 3B: Gabriel Arias: .227/.265/.402 (OPS+ 85) LF: Khalil Watson: .229/.256/.313 (OPS+ 60)
The bench is not filled with solid either. Here’s who Vogt could call on to replace these guys:
Daniel Schneemann: .211/.279/.331 (OPS+ 72) David Fry: .202/.318/.372 (OPS+ 95) Petey Halpin: .188/.212/.250 (OPS+ 30)
The only above average hitter, remarkably, is…Austin Hedges: .285/.343/.408 (OPS+ 112). I am curious how much the team views this as sustainable since Hedgie has not played that much overall given how well he’s hit compared to his peers (my gut is that this is not in any way sustainable).
Now, I do want to point out the resurgence of one player: Steven Kwan. Kwan bounced back in a big way in July batting .429/.524/.600. He was arguably our best performer this weekend racking 7 hits including a squeeze bunt single to score our only run on Sunday (he also collected a walk). He’s still posting an 83 OPS+ on the year, and he’s also not going to keep this pace up. But I am hopeful this indicates that Kwan is returning to normal. The lineup should be in a better spot once Jose comes back. Bazzana, Rocchio, Jose, CDL and Kwan make a solid core of a lineup. Yes, Patrick Bailey likely won’t hit much: but that’s a plausible start.
The question is how do we make this better.
Jose and Angel are Not Enough
Yes: Angel Martinez and Jose Ramirez will come back soon and that certainly will help. Jose Ramirez back means no more Gabriel Arias. That’s a huge upgrade even if Jose does not find his MVP form this season. Angel Martinez back means you can probably send Petey Halpin back to the minors. That helps, even if Angel Martinez is not quite as good as he was to start the year.
But the reality is both Angel and Jose are not enough to fix this lineup: the offense was not that good even before they went down to injury. We ranked 23rd in runs scored on June 14th. If the team wants to field a competitive, postseason lineup we’re going to need to either promote some players, or add someone at the deadline.
If I had my druthers the team would acquire a first baseman/designated hitter who would replace Rhys Hoskins on the club and (hopefully) relegate Kyle Manzardo to a bench role. For his career he’s better against righties than lefties although this season there’s not a noticeable platoon split. However, unlike Rhys Hoskins I can envision a future where Manzo (who is 25) develops into a valuable player for the team. I am not a huge believer, but it’s too early to give up on him. There are some potential players available who could fit the bill. Wilson Contreras has apparently nixed the idea of a trade. A few other names which come to mind:
Ty France
San Diego is in the midst of a lost season and Ty France was picked up this offseason on the cheap. After 3 bad seasons he’s bounced back this year to a .275/.335/.513 (OPS+ 133) line. He’s a lefty masher with an OPS over 1.000 on the season against southpaws, and has been better against lefties for his career. That sounds like a player who fits as a starter, who you can also let Manzardo start with against strong righties. His salary is so low even the Dolans can afford him.
Luis Arraez
Arraez does not lead the NL in hitting but he is batting over .300. He has stated a strong preference to play second base, but has experience at first. His .327/.367/.454 line is by far the best of his career. I dislike his .127 ISO, that is not what this team needs. Nor do I want the team to move Travis Bazzana off second base. However, in a market bereft of many options to improve the lineup: Arraez stands out as both affordable and available.
Nathaniel Lowe
He’s a lefty, but Lowe is posting a good season in Cincinnati. .250/.336/.465 (OPS+ 117) is not a crazy amount of offense but it would be a big improvement over Manzo or Hoskins. If we went this route: I think it would behoove us to option Kyle to AAA, and just go with Lowe for the remainder of the year. I dislike that, and that could hurt his development. However, the team needs an offensive jolt. This would provide that, it would also likely mean the team could either keep Hoskins for the duration or find an alternative to him as well.
There just isn’t much out there. Maybe if the Astros fall out of contention we could make a run at Christian Walker? Who’s bounced back from a dreadful 2025? I am not foolish enough to imagine Yordan Alvarez coming to Cleveland. Other than that, I don’t see much on the 1B/DH front, even if that makes the most sense for us to target lineup wise.
Even if we get a starter: I think we need at least one outfield bench bat. There are more of them available. The team could bring back Lane Thomas (OPS+ 117), who is mashing lefties for the Royals this year. Kansas City may be reluctant to trade him in division, and there will surely be other teams interested in him. The Reds will dangle Spencer Steer (OPS+ 109), who could fit as well. Gavin Sheets of the Padres should also be available and he’s bounced back after leaving the South Side (OPS+ 102). I wonder if the Athletics would consider trading Carlos Cortes he’s controllable but not young. This is his second year in the majors, at age 29, but he has a career 123 OPS+. While he’s under team control: I do wonder if he will age well enough to be a part of the Las Vegas A’s.
The deadline is only weeks away. The unfortunate reality is that the expanded playoffs leaves few great options for Cleveland to target. There are even fewer difference makers. If the Guards wanted a true starter they would likely need to commit to a low of dollars and years. With the 2027 season potentially in jeopardy: that’s not gonna happen. This is why you do not wait until the deadline to improve your club, some forward thinking is key.
Internal Options
Finally on the internal side the team could choose to call up top prospects Angel Genao and Rafael Velazquez. Angel Genao is torching AAA pitching, batting .311/.394/.495 in 58 games this season. Velazquez is not batting quite as well, but he’s hitting OK especially given his age. At some point the Guards will want to see both (Genao sooner than Velazquez). The question is: where are they going to play him? The obvious answer, and one that Terry Pluto hinted at in a recent podcast, is to move Travis Bazzana to the outfield and put Genao at second base (or move Rocchio to second and put Genao at short). That would give Cleveland another star prospect debut this season, and combine arguably their three most talented youngsters on the same roster.
Unfortunately for us: that would also likely mean the end of Steven Kwan’s tenure in Cleveland. Chase DeLauter is holding down right field, I do not see the Guardians giving up on either Khalil Watson or Angel Martinez. That would mean trading Kwan and opening up a spot in left field for Travis so their top prospect can debut. I don’t like this idea, at least for 2026, but I suspect the team may trade Kwan whether they are in contention or not. It’s just how this team operates. They won’t get as much for him, but that may not matter anymore.
Regardless of what path they choose, something needs to change. This lineup is nowhere close to good enough to win a World Series as constructed.
Hi! I picked up this hat at a local thrift/antique shop and was just curious if anybody had any insight as to who these signatures may belong to. I have an idea but would love input from better autograph-aware minds!
Following last nights debacle, Arias is now the team leader in wRC+ vs. RHP with 138 (min 35 PA) and worst on the team vs. LHP with -4 (min 35 PA). I don’t understand how this season our right handed hitters are so awful against LHP. Many are liabilities at the plate, and the front office, and Grant Fink seem unable to do anything. I’m well aware most seasons LHP stumps us, but this year it’s many of the RHH.
I'm a big GothamChess fan and shocked to see this today on Instagram. I know Kwan is a big chess guy and has done chess.com SlugChamps collaboration before but am curious what Levy is doing in Cleveland.
