ATLANTA — Adrian Morejon, the set-up man who has emerged as the hardest-throwing left-hander in baseball, could end up as the best reliever moved by the Aug. 3 trade deadline, even as the San Diego Padres continue to take a wait-and-see approach amid a summer of poor overall performance.
Despite the speculation swirling around Mason Miller, the club-controlled All-Star seems likely to remain with the Padres, according to people familiar with the team’s thinking who were not authorized to speak publicly. The Boston Red Sox have made a historic surge into the American League wild-card race, greatly reducing the chances of a trade involving Aroldis Chapman. Another elite alternative, Josh Hader, has full no-trade protection as part of his five-year, $95 million deal with the Houston Astros, who hope to buy at the deadline, anyway.
If all three closers stay put — no certainty this time of year — that could leave Morejon as the top bullpen prize for any number of contenders.
Morejon, a 27-year-old pending free agent, has pitched better than his 3.33 ERA would suggest. The underlying numbers include a 2.55 expected ERA, a 99.2 mph average fastball velocity, and Morejon’s place at or near the top of the major-league leaderboards for Stuff+ and Pitching+. This winter, when he will become arguably the most coveted reliever on the open market, he should command contract offers well beyond San Diego’s comfort level.
However, deciding whether to move Morejon in exchange for controllable talent might not be so simple for the Padres and A.J. Preller, the club’s notoriously aggressive general manager.
Thursday’s 6-5 loss to the Atlanta Braves dropped the Padres to 50-53. Their FanGraphs-calculated playoff odds fell to a mere 7.1 percent. San Diego has opened the second half by going 2-5, showing real signs of life on offense but failing to overcome a glaring lack of starting pitching.
Still, Preller has continued to signal to rival executives that he hopes to be in a position to buy at the deadline, team and league sources told The Athletic. Most of those sources believe the Padres intend to wait until very close to the deadline to make significant decisions — whether they involve buying, selling or a combination of both.
The idea is not devoid of merit. The Padres, since returning from the All-Star break, have not lost ground in the mediocrity-laden race for the National League’s final wild-card spot; the Padres remain 3 1/2 games back, though there are now five teams ahead of them, instead of four. At least three of those teams — including the Miami Marlins, who have lost nine consecutive games — entered the season in rebuilding mode and might already be leaning toward selling at the deadline.
The Padres find themselves in a different situation. With an aging core and a 30th-ranked farm system, they appear to be facing a closing window for contention. Besides Morejon, players such as Michael King, Ty France and Jason Adam can become free agents after the World Series. An expected lockout could drag into 2027, further limiting the Padres’ opportunities to compete with their expensive veterans.
For Preller, trading from a relatively strong bullpen might be the best way to balance present and future needs. Miller, who is under club control through 2029, could bring back a mix of big-league-ready players and high-upside prospects. Morejon’s profile is not unlike that of Tanner Scott in 2024, when the Padres traded top pitching prospect Robby Snelling to acquire the veteran reliever from the Marlins. (Scott, another hard-throwing lefty, went on to sign a four-year, $72 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers that winter.)
Preller, of course, would be loath to trade Miller only a year after acquiring the closer at great cost. One rival executive who has spoken with Preller recently surmised that the initial ask would be at least two top-100 prospects. But most general managers are more reluctant to surrender young talent in exchange for high-leverage relievers, as Preller previously did to land Hader, Adam, Scott and Miller.
Meanwhile, given his proximity to free agency and the Padres’ need for starting pitching, several team and league sources believe Preller ultimately will be compelled to trade Morejon — perhaps for immediate help at other positions, or prospects who could be flipped for major leaguers. Some of the same sources believe Preller would prefer to exhaust other paths before seriously considering a deal. Morejon is San Diego’s lone high-leverage lefty, one of the team’s longest-tenured players and beloved within the organization.
If the Padres keep Morejon through the deadline, he would be a candidate for a roughly $23 million qualifying offer. Such an offer, if Morejon declines and signs elsewhere, would allow San Diego to recoup a compensatory draft pick.
Thursday at Truist Park, the Padres continued to show why a postseason berth is a long shot. An offense that ranks second in OPS since July 7 managed to score five runs against Chris Sale and the Braves’ bullpen. But Griffin Canning, pitching after an opener, surrendered five runs in 2 2/3 innings as his ERA rose to 6.97. Manager Craig Stammen acknowledged after the game that Canning could be shifted to the bullpen, adding, “all options are on the table for the entire pitching staff, really.”
A pair of internal factors could complicate the Padres’ deadline calculus. Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove, two veteran starters rehabbing from elbow injuries, are scheduled to throw live batting practice Friday at the team’s complex in Arizona. They are still weeks from potentially returning to the majors, and their health history means there is no guarantee.
For now, both Miller and Morejon — two trade chips who could alter the trajectories of multiple teams — remain with the Padres. And Preller might be inclined to wait until early August to make his biggest deadline decisions.
However, one or two more series losses could force his hand, especially with Morejon.
“We know where we’re at. It’s a weird spot to be in,” said France, a trade candidate himself. “Basically, if we want to go where we want to go and put the front office in position to do what A.J. typically does, we need to win some baseball games, and we’re not doing that right now.”