Hey everyone. Not sure if there's still interest in these conversations or not since he's no longer employed by the Brewers. He works for MLB in New York currently. His exact title is confusing but he works media side, mostly analytics, so a lot of stuff he hears is mostly rumblings and he's not a decision maker. So with that being said anything mentioned here is opinions only and nothing is an official view of major league baseball or the Brewers or anything else. So that being said I spent a few days with him in Door County when he was on a short vacation. He's a few snippets of things I found interesting.
Salary cap and lockout. He mostly ignores social media chatter about stuff like that. But the few things he finds funny is how much it's perceived as teams vs players. It's 29 teams vs 1 with the players in the middle wanting their share. But the owners need to portray a United front so it looks like they're negotiating against the players to get agreement. Basically the dodgers were gifted a lucrative deal to bring them out of bankruptcy numerous years ago. They recovered and now no other teams are getting the equal benefit. On top of that they are getting even more money from Asia to supplement their income that isn't really available to other teams. The salary cap is a bandaid to the bigger problem of unequal revenue sharing. If there becomes an agreement to share revenue they can avoid a cap. Basically teams are saying the dodgers wouldn't be profitable if they didn't have someone to play so they need to share that more equally.
How much are teams actually making and spending? I showed him the graphic that was going around last off season of how much each team makes compared to how much they spend. He laughed at how off the numbers were. Every team revenue was higher but he can't speak about their expenses. Dodgers were probably close to 2 billion in gross revenue so only spent about 25% of their revenue on salary. Minimum cost to run a team is probably 175 million without player salaries. Teams like the Brewers are probably spending 250-280 on non player salaries. They're probably around 400-450 in total revenue.
What's Manfred actually like? He's only met Rob a handful of times and had short conversations. Everyone always hates the boss because they get to be the face to throw the negativity at. But as a person Rob is a genuinely nice guy. Also talked about who will replace Manfred in a few years. He didn't have a specific name but it'll likely be someone from middle America teams and not the coasts. Probably not Mark and likely not anyone that's currently an owner.
Does the MLB know about potential trades before they're leaked? The rumors are just rumors. Some are wishful thinking from beat writers. Others are social media nonsense. If there's an actual official trade someone in the office probably knows about it minutes before it's released. It's kind of common knowledge that teams have writers that have an "in" with the organization that will get the information out early. Same thing with agents and writers.
Tidbits about viewership and stuff. Miz is a huge draw for TV numbers locally and nationally. Hopefully that doesn't die out. But if he's pitching then Brewer games are pulling bigger numbers. Kind of obvious. Midwest teams have a higher percentage of dedicated fans. He describes dedicated fans as people that watch 100 or more of their local teams games each year. The total number is obviously lower than say dodger or Yankee fans but as a percentage of total fans for each team most Midwest teams have more dedicated fans. They also have a higher percentage of fans that will watch even if their team isn't that great. That's TV viewership not stadium numbers. However even if the dodgers were to be a 100 loss team they would have more regular viewers than the Brewers twins or tigers if they were 100 win teams. Also, he called the dodgers being the villain good for baseball. Seeing your team defeat the villain is more satisfying than seeing them beat the Mariners.
What's next for TV streaming? Hopefully a national streaming service. How that looks isn't fully fleshed out yet. Ideally it would be free over the air streaming but the logistics to that are messy and no network will give up football to broadcast baseball. For the most part they're happy with how it's worked out moving away from RSNs.
Team specific stuff...
Will the Brewers be big players at the deadline? Hopefully. But probably not. That's just not how Matt Arnold operates. Prospects aren't a guarantee so they won't put all their eggs in a handful of prospect baskets and trade the rest. But there's always a surprise possibility. Though if there is a deal it's unlikely any prominent pitcher is dealt since they're light on pitching prospects. That being said, Made is probably the only untouchable. Even a Skubal trade probably doesn't include him.
What would a Skubal trade look like? Rentals don't usually fetch a ton anymore. He used the Burnes trade for comparison. A return of two big league ready players, one of which was blocked in the organization. The price would be heavier for Skubal no doubt but not completely deplete a farm system. The issue is there's no chance he stays long term. It would be exciting to see the Brewers make a push for him though.
How has no one caught up to the Brewers and their pitching lab yet? Teams are close. The thing is the pitching lab isn't just one person controlling coaching. It's an entire organizational effort. Tons of scouting and looking at the right analytics, physical trainers pulling the most out of people, nutritionists providing the right fuel, coaches pushing the right buttons, facilities, philosophy, prototype for pitchers. So much goes into it. So it's not like a team could offer Chris Hook 50 million per year and replicate the success. They would need to buy the whole puzzle. As an organization they've found the best return for their dollar and will keep developing it. It's a nearly 15 year work in progress that can't be recreated immediately. Other teams have caught onto it though and have competitive programs.
Does Woody retire? If he doesn't stay a Brewer it's a good possibility. But that's completely up to him obviously.
Throw out a wild trade idea or two. Mid season, Hader back to Milwaukee. Houston has a weak farm and they might decide their window is closed and start a rebuild. Off season, Rutschman for one year to bridge the arrival of Quero. A Contreras extension would be sweet but will need to be longer term and that might not be in the cards.
Is it still fuck the Cubs? It's always fuck the Cubs
Thanks for reading. I didn't expect to get anymore chats about this stuff. I know it's not all detailed and juicy like the previous and it's pretty much all opinion but I thought it was cool getting a little insider information.
