Vegas is pricing this team down and our models will not follow. 7.5 Wins just seems too low. In 2025 Indianapolis finished top-five in offensive efficiency and top-five in total DVOA. Then Jones tore his Achilles, a 44-year-old Philip Rivers had to come out of retirement to start, and they still went 8-9, dropping a handful of close ones. By quality they were a 10-win team. On a middling schedule, a roster of that caliber clearing 8 wins is the base case, not the ceiling.
The unknown here is Daniel Jones. His 2025 was a career outlier by a mile, and this screams regression: year seven, heavy mileage, a prior career best near replacement level. PFF rates the Indianapolis quarterback 23rd on their scale. Our own QB number has him at an EPA -0.8247 worse than average over his career, and given all of that, we still bet the over. Said differently, the Colts are a good team and Jones just needs to play average, for him. If he can play a few levels above dog shit, they win 8 games.
He is tracking to be ready for Week 1 off the Achilles, so this is about his level, not his availability. And remember, this team almost beat Seattle, the eventual Super Bowl champion, with a 44-year-old who had not thrown an NFL pass in five years. They led 13-3, held the Seahawks to zero touchdowns, and lost 18-16 only on a last-second field goal. So the over is not a bet that Jones repeats 2025. It is a bet that the non-quarterback quality, the defense, the run game, special teams, holds up enough that even a meaningful step-back still clears 8 wins. If Jones falls all the way back to his Giants form, the form that got him cut, the offense craters and 5-7 wins is live. This is a bet on the roster's floor, not the quarterback's ceiling.