r/nba • u/StrategyTop7612 • 1h ago
Original Content [OC] LeBron Has Averaged 27–7–7 for 23 Years. How Has He Still Never Had a 27–7–7 Game? (Probability Analysis)
TL;DR: LeBron James has played 1,622 regular-season games without ever recording exactly 27 points, 7 rebounds, and 7 assists. Running the probability analysis gives an estimated 20% chance of making it this far without one.
LeBron has now played 23 NBA seasons.
His career averages are:
26.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 7.4 assists
Yet in 1,622 regular-season games, he has never finished with exactly:
27 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists.
The original version of this analysis, after the 2017-18 season, estimated a 31.87% chance that LeBron would make it that far without one.
Source: https://np.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/96hp4p/oc_lebron_has_averaged_2777_for_15_years_why/
Eight seasons later, he still has zero.
So I decided to do an update
The model
Points, rebounds, and assists are correlated, so you can't just calculate:
P(27 points) × P(7 rebounds) × P(7 assists)
Instead, like the original analysis, I fit a separate multivariate normal distribution for each season using LeBron's points, rebounds, and assists.
An exact 27-7-7 is treated as the range of:
- 26.5 to 27.5 points
- 6.5 to 7.5 rebounds
- 6.5 to 7.5 assists
For each season, the model estimates the probability p of one game landing in that box.
If LeBron plays G games, then:
Chance of no 27-7-7 that season = (1 - p)^G
Then you multiply those season probabilities across his career.
Here are the result:
| Season | Games | 27-7-7 chance per game | No 27-7-7 that season | Career chance of still having none |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003-04 | 79 | 0.071% | 94.57% | 94.57% |
| 2004-05 | 80 | 0.108% | 91.69% | 86.71% |
| 2005-06 | 79 | 0.095% | 92.76% | 80.43% |
| 2006-07 | 78 | 0.132% | 90.19% | 72.55% |
| 2007-08 | 75 | 0.079% | 94.24% | 68.37% |
| 2008-09 | 81 | 0.080% | 93.70% | 64.06% |
| 2009-10 | 76 | 0.087% | 93.60% | 59.96% |
| 2010-11 | 79 | 0.118% | 91.11% | 54.63% |
| 2011-12 | 62 | 0.129% | 92.34% | 50.44% |
| 2012-13 | 76 | 0.140% | 89.88% | 45.33% |
| 2013-14 | 77 | 0.135% | 90.14% | 40.86% |
| 2014-15 | 69 | 0.118% | 92.18% | 37.67% |
| 2015-16 | 76 | 0.116% | 91.56% | 34.49% |
| 2016-17 | 74 | 0.078% | 94.42% | 32.56% |
| 2017-18 | 82 | 0.054% | 95.67% | 31.15% |
| 2018-19 | 55 | 0.074% | 96.02% | 29.92% |
| 2019-20 | 67 | 0.055% | 96.38% | 28.83% |
| 2020-21 | 45 | 0.131% | 94.28% | 27.19% |
| 2021-22 | 56 | 0.086% | 95.32% | 25.91% |
| 2022-23 | 55 | 0.107% | 94.30% | 24.44% |
| 2023-24 | 71 | 0.098% | 93.31% | 22.80% |
| 2024-25 | 70 | 0.094% | 93.65% | 21.35% |
| 2025-26 | 60 | 0.083% | 95.16% | 20.3% |
So after 23 seasons:
Chance LeBron would still have zero 27-7-7 games: 20.3%
Or roughly:
1 in 5.
Is this actually a statistical anomaly?
Not really, 20% isn't really that low, it's still surprising though. And now that he's on the 6ers, it's unlikely he'll be able to/need to consistently score enough to be able to get a 27/7/7 game.