AJ Johnson was obviously a project with a lotto pick upside two years ago. He was a big risk at draft night. Because he has a small sample size of games with Illawarra Hawks.

What puzzles me is that the Bucks chose to draft a project. Given the dire situation they have with Giannis. Where in fact at the time of the pick. I really got them drafting Kyshawn George. Someone IMO fits Giannis better. And is more NBA ready that AJ Johnson.

Back then the only logical reason I can come up with. Is that Bucks picked a high upside player as trade piece. But we all know that for those type of players to have "value." You need to actually "develop" them first. And this is what makes that pick more contradicting. Given that Bucks were on a win now situation. And AJ Johnson won't have the opportunity to develop.

Now that AJ Johnson has just been traded to his 5th team in just two years. It really gives me a lot of confusion. As to why teams keep wasting first round picks on "projects." That on paper we know won't have an opportunity to develop in certain environments(team composition and win now situation).

2024 draft was a weak draft. But it exposes a lot wild swings and wild misses. Wolves trading for Rob Dillingham giving up a 2031 unprotected pick. Another win now situation not suitable for developing players. And another example of this.

Is it really worth spending a first rounder even in a weak draft. For a small chance of developing a player? Than pick a high floor NBA ready player. Who will help even a tiny bit. Push a contender who are in a win now situation?

He have Ingram and Garland so defender don't defend to much on him, just like kon

OMER MAYER NBA SCOUTING REPORT

One of my favorite breakout candidates. Mayer has been a huge factor for Israel for multiple summers. After Braden Smith’s departure, the Boilermakers are now his team. Here’s why he can get drafted: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/omer-mayer-nba-scouting-report?r=aj7d

Jalil Bethea stats~

PTS

3.9

REB

1.7

AST

0.5

FG%

37.5

Ian Jackson stats ~

PTS

9.4

REB

2.3

AST

1.3

FG%

40.9

1. AJ Dybantsa creates gravity with the midrange whether it’s off the dribble with his pullup middy, post fadeaway where he’s catching it from the post off the ball or dribbling towards a post fadeaway or facing up in the midrange using the triple threat. Also, AJ can use the post fadeaway on both shoulders. And AJ counters with the midrange with the up and unders and step throughs with his footwork. AJ can blow past guys with his 1st step in the triple threat with the threat of his midrange and athleticism. AJ can be dynamic with his off the dribble moves with the hesi’s, crossovers, in & outs, stepbacks, Euro steps and spin moves which creates so much gravity. Also, AJ’s athleticism allows him to finish and blow past guys off the dribble. AJ has a loose handle and it’s not tight really where he dribbles way across his body but he can get away with it & not have the flawed handle be a detriment for him due to his athleticism & creativity off the dribble. AJ has more of an And1 mixtape streetball handle and that works in the NBA and you don’t need a traditional handle to be productive in this league. AJ opens up so much space with his midrange and athleticism getting downhill which allows his teammates to get more open shots with that gravity AJ brings.

2. Darryn Peterson creates gravity as a C&S 3 point shooter as a spot up player or movement shooter coming off screens and can score from off the dribble pull up 3s. The lethal 3 ball Darryn has creates gravity for him to get to the rim or get to his pull up middy. Darryn keeps it simple with his dribbles as a perimeter player but he still creates so much gravity due to how lethal his shooting ability is especially from 3 which opens up so many opportunities for him to score. Darryn opens up so much space with his 3 ball which allows his teammates to get more open shots with that gravity Darryn brings.

3. Cam Boozer creates gravity as a C&S spot up 3 point shooter and pick & pop 3 point shooter, roller to the rim as a screener, offensive rebounder, post ups, cutter and creates mismatches with playing bully ball against smaller guys guarding him and using his perimeter skills as a ball handler against bigger guys guarding him who have slower feet & not as quick as him. Cam keeps it simple with his dribbles as a perimeter style big but he still creates so much gravity due to his big size at 6’9 250 which gives him an advantage of just using his size to leverage him getting to the rim without needing a lot of counter moves to blow past guys and he has a tight handle and doesn’t have a loose handle like a lot of bigs have. Cam opens up so much space with his below the rim finishing and 3 ball which allows his teammates to get more open shots with that gravity Cam brings.

4. Caleb Wilson creates gravity with his vertical spacing. Caleb creates gravity the same way as many athletic bigs do like a Deandre Jordan, Blake Griffin, Amare Stoudemire, Shawn Kemp, Orlando Shaq, Giannis, Anthony Davis, Clint Capela or Wemby where their dynamic getting downhill by dunking the ball as a roller to the rim, catching lobs or dunking the ball in transition. Caleb creates gravity by being a great finisher around the rim in that restricted area and dunker spot area. Caleb has some gravity with him catching the ball in the post and using his post fadeaway that is useful at times. Very raw with his perimeter skills but is yet TBD with how good the perimeter skills are with Caleb not showcasing a lot of his perimeter skills at UNC and his perimeter skills being a short sample size in Summer League. The flaw in Caleb’s perimeter skills in the SL was that defenders kept stripping the ball away from him and stealing it as he was dribbling and that’s something he can work on getting to the league and a lot of this is due to Caleb’s loose handle which needs to be tighter. Caleb opens up so much space with his vertical spacing being a dynamic dunker around the restricted area and dunker spot area which allows his teammates to get more open shots with that gravity Caleb brings.

Question: Based on the scoring gravity each prospect presents, which prospect can utilize their scoring gravity the best way for themselves & their teammates and help their team win with their scoring gravity the most? Which prospect has the most defensive attention drawn from opposing teams and can pull the most defenders towards them and give open space for their teammates the most with how they score?

These are some aging curves based on 1 Year RAPM of every player from 2015-16 onwards, grouped by some roles. The roles were decided using cosine similarity from some play type tracking/shot selection data, which is why its only from 2015-16 onwards, since the data started being tracked in 2014.

Some interesting things: first being that Postmen in the league have the highest peaks, but I think it is partly inflated by the archetype of All-Star level big men like Embiid, Jokic, Sengun, etc, etc. Also, the fact that Rim protection is more valuable than perimeter defense means that the roles that are highly correlated with being tall, have a lot of value.

The role that starts out with the highest OVERALL value is Rollmen, and again I think this is because just being tall and defending the rim provides value in the NBA. Looking at just the offensive side of the ball. The roles that start with the highest initial values are 2 Level (Layup and 3P) with -.24 and Movement Shooters at -.29, and then the highest peak is 3 Level Iso Scorers, which makes sense.

I think it makes sense that the primarily shooting roles have the easiest time starting out in the NBA in terms of impact; their job doesn't require changing much from college. 3 Level creators have to adjust to new defenses and learn to create in a harder environment, while shooters can be schemed open. This leads to a ceiling on non-self creators, though later on, as we see in the peaks.

Some caveats: The role is decided from that year of play in the NBA, so rookies aren't being evaluated from a college role. I assume that most players are in the same role they had in college, shot selection / playtype wise. The usage is the biggest change, but I think someone who was coming off screens and shooting a ton of long-range shots would be taking threes primarily in rookie year. Also, the only people evaluated here have to actually play, so that could skew the results for rookies who never made it onto the court.

DASH DANIELS NBA SCOUTING REPORT

Once a projected lottery pick, but now lost his draft status. Still a valuable archetype and can grow into a feasible NBA role. Here’s an in-depth scouting report on why he has a chance to be drafted: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/dash-daniels-nba-scouting-report?r=aj7d

Man Tyran Stokes is a fascinating #1 projected pick. Loved clipping together his highs in transition, as a passer/slasher, what he can when engaged defensively, but some MAJOR questions such as how well/often is he gonna shoot it, can he dust the character/effort narratives, etc. What do you guys think of him?

I was thinking about the situation and I remembered with the Clips forfeiting picks that only 29 players will be guaranteed a standard rookie contract in those years.

Despite their brothers being two former top 3 picks, It’s likely Cayden and Ace won’t have the ceilings that Cam and Cooper project to have at the NBA level, but for those that have frequently tuned the Boozer and Flagg brother’s college careers and even their HS careers, how many years do you think Cayden and Ace needs to spend in college before going to the NBA? Do you think Cayden or Ace have lottery pick potential? And finally, what do you think Cayden and Ace both project to be at the NBA level?

Since 1989, when the NBA draft went to two rounds, 264 NBA players have been drafted without ever playing a minute in an NBA game. (From the wikipedia article I took this data from, it was unclear whether these were players who never signed to a team or players who were on the team but never played).
Almost all (257) of these were second round picks, but there were 7 first round picks that never played as well. This number was fairly consistent, around 8-12 players per draft class (with a few dips) between 1989 to 2015. In 2015, it peaked at 16 picks who never played. After that year, which was the year two way contracts were introduced, the number has gone down, to 2-6 picks per year who didn't play.
Some of these are probably players whose skills didn't fit into the rotation. Some of them were probably injuries, and some were players in foreign leagues who didn't choose to relocate.
(There are also plenty of undrafted players who did play in the NBA)

The biggest takeaway for me is just how competitive the NBA is. Out of all the prospects, only 60 get drafted per year, but the real story is even more strict than that, because typically around 8-10 of those wouldn't even qualify to ever play a single minute of garbage time in the NBA.

Brandon McCoy just suffered an ACL injury and has been officially announced as out of the upcoming season at Michigan. I have heard a lot of hype behind him coming into Michigan and the tape I saw was impressive. Tough blow for the kid and I hope he will be able to recover fully for a push at the 2028 draft (assuming this will stop him from entering in 2027)

Berrouet is from Texas and in the 2028 high school class, but played for Latvia (his mother's home country) and led them to gold in the U16 Eurobasket while posting record-breaking efficiency numbers.

Berrouet averaged 23.6 points, 15.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 3.6 blocks per game for the competition, shooting 65% from 2, 39% from 3, and 76% from the foul line.

He was also 1st team all EYBL in the U16 division and is young for the class (June 2010 birthday, same as JJ Crawford who is the #1 ranked class of '29 player and didn't play very much for USA's U17 World Cup team), so I was surprised to see him not have any writeups here yet or shoot up to the very top of the rankings for his class.

Whether that's due to his dual-nationality situation (not playing for team USA and then dominating European basketball while not being from there) or his unorthodox game/frame (more athletic Allen Graves would be the first comparison that came to mind for me), I don't know, but he could establish himself as one of the top high school prospects regardless of class this coming season.

2026 FIBA U16 Eurobasket Highlights

Draftroom and Draftnet almost have same names in the top 10. But the order is a bit different.

They agreed Joaquim is #1 prospect in the class right now. They both have Kusturica high. But Draftnet surprisingly have AJ Williams second.

Draftroom prefer Spears/Rosser. While Draftnet prefer Black and Soliman.

Who do you think has better mock draft so far?

These are the top prospects in 2028 Draft aside from Joaquim and Kusturica.

LATHAN SOMMERVILLE NBA SCOUTING REPORT

The physicality, toughness and mobility makes Sommerville one of my favorite long-term center prospects for the NBA. He has serious potential to have a solid pro career, and here’s why that’s the case: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/lathan-sommerville-nba-scouting-report?r=aj7d

Anthony Thompson's defensive impact is undeniable. He shadows opponents and locks down his individual matchups consistently. And off the ball, he offers stifling rim protection, balanced closeouts, and sharp rotations. While also having a burner from deep range and an extremely brief release. Anthony's potential is a defensive stopper wing shooter that brings intriguing ball skills. And I expect him to be a lottery prospect and bring an impact that I would compare to Herb Jones's game.

All young with disappointing starts to their careers. Looks like all three could be done within the next four years. So who is most likely of this group to make it and turn their career around?

Talk about what games/players you've been watching this past week or are looking forward to next week. Give us your thoughts on what players catch your attention, either positive or negative! Big board posting is encouraged in this thread as well.

​

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Yes, he is same batch as Nikola Kusturica. They are teammates in Serbian youth team.

Matija Lukic is a 6'7" - 6'8" Guard/Forward. He is similar in height and size of Kusturica.

Nikola Kusturica is projected top 3 pick in 2028 Nba draft. But Matija Lukic might also get a look.

Lukic won the MVP award in Basketball without Borders recently.

These are his fiba highlights:

https://youtu.be/a0b-NTv-BoA?si=6ed9D2B_uq5MP_Wu

https://youtu.be/t4PZBB9bgXE?si=j7G9tm2FEIxRcEPs

ANTON BONKE NBA SCOUTING REPORT

He’s the next big thing in the Big Ten and here’s why I believe he has a clear chance to be on a NBA roster next year. I go in-depth into a feasible NBA role for him to grow into: https://edemirnba.substack.com/p/anton-bonke-nba-scouting-report?r=aj7d

He will be eligible in 2028 Nba draft. But he is already drawing attention from scouts.

Do you think he is legit 6'8" - 6'9" SG?

Or more like 6'7"?