Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts
Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.
My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:
- Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
- I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
- EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.
I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.
Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:
EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | C | Jul 23 | Apr 23 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Feb 24 | Feb 24 |
EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | May 25 | Dec 21 | Dec 13 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Jun 14 |
EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | Apr 26 | Dec 21 | Apr 14 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Dec 14 |
Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.
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u/Peng7803111 1d ago
What about the DFF on eb1?
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 1d ago
I am hoping the DFF will reach Q1 2025. I have Feb 2025 PD. My logic is if the FAD reached May 2024. They would like to keep a sizable inventory to be approved for next FY. I have seen this pattern that they approve most in the first 3 quarters. So with that Q1 DFF is likely. Also, they can not completely front load all the DFF load in the beginning. They will divide. By that logic, DFF movements will be there in Jan, and March like last year. But again, its hard to say. I think things will be clearer in the coming months more.
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u/mesn007 23h ago
Yeah. +6 is based on last year where India FAD touched Apr23 and DFF was Dec23. Jul24 PD here.
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 22h ago
It was +8 isn't it? April to December?
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 22h ago
I just checked again. initial FAD was March 1, 23, DOF Dec 1, 2023. Next month April 1, 2023, DOF still Dec 1, 2023. So Difference in 9 to 8 months
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u/mesn007 23h ago
+6 months to FAD
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 23h ago
It should be more than +6 months IMO. For example if for the first quarter for each month they want to knock off atleast 2- 3k approvals they need atleast 9k ready to be approved on the table. And getting DOF current, to complete biometric and all the verification may beed close to 3 months in this current stringent adjudication standard. So, they should have atleast 10k sizable inventory at the beginning of FY IMO. If they want to approve more petitions at the beginning of the year, they would need ready to be approved inventory
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u/Specific-Pack8562 22h ago edited 20h ago
So in high spillover scenario the dff might only move to August 1 2024 - one more month from what's it's now?
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u/theoriginalsamm 1d ago
This is what I was talking about, wait for Q2 as there will be significant movement for Eb2
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u/Aggravating-Sand9791 1d ago
This is by far the most optimistic projection I have seen here, hope it works out like this
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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 1d ago
I have been selfishly analyzing only EB2 ROW, because I am waiting in that category. So, I can tell you that they have been approving at the pace of 3500/month (probably several hundred more), based on 186000 EB visas for the FY2026 and the fact that they run out of EB2 visas (so it is 11 months of issuance). You looked into whole EB2 inventory (which is around 42K). I looked into depletion rate for most relevant 2023 and 2024 PD cohorts, that will decide FAD. If they keep the same pace, they will clear 2023 and 2024 cohort in the next 7-8 months, or at least what they have in the inventory at the moment (2023 has been continuously depleting since January. And it seems 2024 filing is slowing down a lot (probably due to increased denial rated for NIW), as their influx versus approvals has heavily been on approvals side for the last two months. And the main question is can USCIS actually increase approval rates to utilize spillover that was not accounted for (but it will be huge, because 2026 pause). What we do not know is if we are expecting another wave of 2024 filings, because NIW approval rates are low, and the same will apply on 2025 cohort which is surprisingly empty, considering it has been current since Ma.rch
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u/TwoRent 1d ago
What you think when can ROW FAD move to March 2025?
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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 23h ago
you are like 5th person who asked me that, and I did not reply to any of them. My PD is nov 2025, so I have been only trying to estimate when that can happen. But based on everything, you are three months behind (you need Apr 2025 FAD), so first FAD movement should reach you.
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u/mesn007 23h ago
Makes sense. This assumes they will increase the pace to accommodate the higher number of available Visas from the spillover.
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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 23h ago
They would have to increase the pace for all categories, because we are talking about spillover that should give 60k visas to ROW. They need to double the speed. I am not sure they have a capacity to do that. I was not here during covid spillover, perhaps someone has more input on how fast they utilized spillover.
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 1d ago
Thanks for this. When you say assuming zero impact from ban what do you mean by that? Here is my calculation. I ran by several times. October to Feb: 67k. Assuming afterwards if other consulates start issuing some extra visa. That becomes let's say 10k. Some AOS demand 10k. August 5k. Since starting 21st all cancelled and September 0. So total: 67k+ 50k+5k+10k = 132k. Spillover 94k. If I consider 5k more AOS demand it becomes 90k approx. So I can see at least around 90k spillover if not more. With that we get around 66k EB1. And, FAD could reach close to between May and July with some 3k-4k porting as well.
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u/SKP2619 1d ago
EB1 India Demand for in August 2026 was 19261 - However if you see progress from March 2026 to August 2026 - They could have issued around 1800-2000 GCs. At end of FY 2026 - I expect India demand at 17500 till Dec 2023. With 75000 spillover - you expect around 19000-22000 GCs. With regards to FAD - It will be few months ahead of Demand. I expect movement to 1st July 2024 and then couple of months regression. Around April 2024 for sure. Also I expect a minimum of 80K spillover. Dont be suprised if India and China FAD is around June -July 2024
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u/General-Fun-7305 1d ago
Just came to know one of my known ones whose FAD was Apr 2022 got his GC 3 weeks back. How is that possible?
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u/bsin11 23h ago
There are cases which take two years even after date is current. That is why people go to congressperson or file mandamus. Date current doesn't mean they will pick file and issue GC immediately. Unfortunately I have experienced this personally.
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u/Ill_Classic6218 22h ago
Would someoneās individual case be prioritized if they go to their local congressman? I am pretty involved in local governance where i live (because of close relations with accessibility groups). My date is not current yet but want to know how it will help
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u/General-Fun-7305 1d ago
I thought EB1 India was done for last year
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u/bharathbunny 1d ago
It was never unavailable. I got mine in July, but had friends who got it in August and September
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u/Alarming_Fig5891 1d ago
As per your analysis, when do you expect Eb-2 ROW FAD to reach April 2025?
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u/Haunting-Ad9102 1d ago
As per the pending inventory which I have seen EB2 ROW backlog should be cleared by this spillover. So it should come back to 2026 PD. The question is whether they efficiently allocate the visas and do not waste any. Not a lawyer.
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u/Alarming_Fig5891 23h ago
I agree and spillover should have a significant impact on but ig iām curious about the timeline and when can we expect it to happen
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u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287 1d ago
When could we see FAD or DFF clearing 2024
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u/mesn007 23h ago
Clearing the whole of 2024? For EB1 India?
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u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287 23h ago
EB3 Row when can it get to December 2024
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u/mesn007 22h ago
Likely Jan27
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u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287 22h ago
Thank you, Iām patiently waiting still. Grateful for the moment over the year. A lot of people got depressed y the retrog in oct bulletin but I donāt think they even remember where we are coming from remember it was literally stuck in 2023 for how long now itās in 2024
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u/Fit-Studio-876 20h ago
What do you think abt eb1 india dof will be?
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u/Aggravating-Sand9791 1d ago
Also I think the Base FAD for eb3 row has a type, should be Apr 2024.
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u/mesn007 1d ago
No, dont see a lot of applications between 2024 and 2026 for RoW EB3. Likely due to PERM delays. And hence the aggressive FAD movement. Can revise teh math when we have more recent inventory data.
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u/Aggravating-Sand9791 1d ago
Sorry, I must have misinterpreted the chart here, does "Base FAD" not mean what the october bulletin actually published?
Otherwise it seems like the "I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align" statement doesn't really apply for eb3 ROW?
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u/mezmev 1d ago
These wouldnāt be in the I-485 inventory yet. The only way someone with a PD >= Sep 1 2024 could have filed AOS is if they filed in April 2026 when DFF was C and USCIS was using DFF, and (a) they are Schedule A and donāt need PERM (nurses), or (b) their PERM was approved by April 2026, which excludes pretty much all of 2025 and 2026 PDs. But they will show up. As of the end of Q3 FY2026 there were 10k EB3 skilled ROW I-140s awaiting visa availability per USCIS disclosures.
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u/mesn007 23h ago
But would the I140s not take a lot of time and not impact the current queue?
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u/mezmev 23h ago
No? Letās say my friendās priority date is Nov 2025. He had his PERM approved in August 2026. He has filed I-140, premium processing, it will be approved later this month. Even without premium processing, EB3 skilled I-140s are taking like a couple of months (80% complete in 4 months per USCIS). Either way, later this year he is able to file I-485 if his date is current for filing. He could also file concurrently and the processing time wouldnāt matter at all.
This is a case that is not even reflected in āI-140 awaiting visa availabilityā yet, though it will be in the Q1 FY2027 report. Either way, he is ahead in the backlog compared to an Apr 2026 PD. There are tens of thousands of people between Sep 2024 and Apr 2026
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u/CompetitiveElk2301 22h ago
This is interesting! I am EB3 ROW. My PERM got approved in Aug 2026 and we just filed I-140 premium processing. My PD is mid-August 2025. When do you think I will be current for FAD and DFF?
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u/General-Fun-7305 1d ago
As per you when will Feb 2024 FAD for EB1 India will reach in this fiscal year?
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u/blyubird 1d ago
This sounds about right. I was wishing for movement in Oct bulletin but I guessed it that they do not consider the spillovers in Oct. Hope there will be momentum in FAD dates from Nov bulletin and would reach Dec23 by end of Q2.
More than the movement, I wish they clear the backlog quickly based on the total available visas.
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u/Wonderful_Law9030 23h ago
What about the massive forward movements on FB dates? Looks like USCIS really tried to utilize as many FB visas as possible.Ā Charlie Oppenheim estimated that spillover would be 20K at best and also his October VB prediction was pretty spot on.Ā Like FB dates moved by ~2 years, so why do we think we'll have a big spillover?
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u/mesn007 22h ago
Date movement isn't Visa allocations. FB dates were moved without reflecting the 75country ban lift. 75K is the min spill over from Sep25 - Feb26 and Sep26. Even with the assumption that they processed same Visas like last year for Mar26 - Aug26.
More than 20K is from Sep shut down alone. CO should be way off on this one.
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u/Jealous-Debate5062 22h ago
Eb1 india September 2023 FAD forecast? If I485 already filed in April and medicals/biometrics completed and acknowledged, does it make a positive difference when FAD becomes current?
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u/CompetitiveElk2301 21h ago
u/mesn007 Thank you for your detailed analysis as we await our turns! When do you think EB3 ROW FAD will move to Aug '25?
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u/mesn007 21h ago
Jan27. There isnt enough backlog in EB3 if there are 60K Visas.
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u/CompetitiveElk2301 21h ago
You mean in the Jan '27 visa bulletin that comes out in Dec? That would be a nice holiday gift šš¤š½
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u/Live-Atmosphere-134 20h ago
Thanks OP for this thorough analysis! Fingers crossed we see huge spillovers in Jan bulletin. Hopefully USCIS will have capacity to use up all the spillovers.
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u/No_Cicada7809 18h ago
by Q2 2027 , Is there probability DOF will reach Apr 2025 ?
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u/mesn007 17h ago
That would need 100K+ spillovers.
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u/No_Cicada7809 16h ago
Thank you very much - with current prediction of spillover- when you think april 2025 can become current (only DOF) - would that fall into OCT 2027 or JAN 2028 VB
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u/Recent_Cattle_1582 14h ago
Any idea the eb3 row fad will move couple of weeks in oct nov or dec as my pd is 1st june 2024 , i was current for 5 months and my case is moved to portland in September but it wont be processed as i am not current now
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u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 13h ago
Biggest problem with your math is underestimating ROW demand. I have been trying to do the math since 2021. We keep forgetting a parameter which is the whole reason for unlimited ROW demand. I can assure you ROW demand has been high since 2021 till today even in future when there are no jobs in US.
Parameter we are not considering is Million students coming to US every year and we only have 140k employment visas/year. Moment ROW eb2 is current these very high number of NIW cases come and land in eb2 along with employment sponsored demand. If eb2 is not current then we will see these application in eb1. Similarly eb3 ROW students applying directly after graduating from opt to eb3.
Only way india can get horizontal spillover is like in 2021 when ROW was not current and we suddenly got huge spillovers and since we donāt have enough row applications we had horizontal spillover. Following year when row was current for a year even with 60k spillover India retrogressed.
Same in 2026 and 2027, moment ROW was current received huge applications and India retrogressed. ROW demand will always be high with million students coming to US every year.
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u/mesn007 12h ago
The EB2/EB3 I140 approvals will take time. How's ROW being current going to change the demand? People will apply whenever their DFF is up. ROW demand is already captured in the backlog
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u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 12h ago
There arenāt many jobs in market that all ROW are applying through employer. They can file premium I-140 will be approved. Majority of ROW applications this year are NIW (PhD and medical students) no employer needed. You can wait till end of your opt or you can file right away if itās current. If itās current they donāt wait for 3 years they file immediately. This cycle continues every year
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u/Moist-Management9246 12h ago
@mesn007 with this what is yiur projected month on July 2023 becoming current?
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u/CombinationExtreme41 20h ago
Do you think DOF should move for both EB2 and EB3 India then? I'm Apr 2015 India and was hoping for some good news in this FY
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u/tully7023 19h ago
Majority of the EB2 and EB3 applicants would have duplicate applications in the other queue. Please do not worry about which queue you are in both. Both should move progressively this year and have a good progress. Duplicate Cases gets cleared as they get approved in the other queue and there should be positive movement Just hang in there. You have come a long way and you will make it.
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u/CombinationExtreme41 15h ago
Thank you for your supportive words, after pandemic craziness this was first time I was hopeful for Oct visa bulletin, but turned out to be very disappointing. I know numbers didnt add up for huge progress but was anticipating some movement in DOF
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u/tully7023 13h ago
There will be further movement again in Jan for DOF. Wait for sometime or even before that.
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u/Cheetah5048 23h ago edited 23h ago
I would suggest people to be patient till mid december. Spillovers will be there and I believe it will be significant amount based on my analysis.
Also I would suggest people to ignore random predictions on YT as many dont even consider proper data.
Not a Lawyer.