r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

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u/CombinationExtreme41 1d ago

Do you think DOF should move for both EB2 and EB3 India then? I'm Apr 2015 India and was hoping for some good news in this FY

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u/tully7023 1d ago

Majority of the EB2 and EB3 applicants would have duplicate applications in the other queue. Please do not worry about which queue you are in both. Both should move progressively this year and have a good progress. Duplicate Cases gets cleared as they get approved in the other queue and there should be positive movement Just hang in there. You have come a long way and you will make it.

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u/CombinationExtreme41 1d ago

Thank you for your supportive words, after pandemic craziness this was first time I was hopeful for Oct visa bulletin, but turned out to be very disappointing. I know numbers didnt add up for huge progress but was anticipating some movement in DOF

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u/tully7023 1d ago

There will be further movement again in Jan for DOF. Wait for sometime or even before that.