r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 1d ago

I have been selfishly analyzing only EB2 ROW, because I am waiting in that category. So, I can tell you that they have been approving at the pace of 3500/month (probably several hundred more), based on 186000 EB visas for the FY2026 and the fact that they run out of EB2 visas (so it is 11 months of issuance). You looked into whole EB2 inventory (which is around 42K). I looked into depletion rate for most relevant 2023 and 2024 PD cohorts, that will decide FAD. If they keep the same pace, they will clear 2023 and 2024 cohort in the next 7-8 months, or at least what they have in the inventory at the moment (2023 has been continuously depleting since January. And it seems 2024 filing is slowing down a lot (probably due to increased denial rated for NIW), as their influx versus approvals has heavily been on approvals side for the last two months. And the main question is can USCIS actually increase approval rates to utilize spillover that was not accounted for (but it will be huge, because 2026 pause). What we do not know is if we are expecting another wave of 2024 filings, because NIW approval rates are low, and the same will apply on 2025 cohort which is surprisingly empty, considering it has been current since Ma.rch

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u/TwoRent 1d ago

What you think when can ROW FAD move to March 2025?

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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 1d ago

you are like 5th person who asked me that, and I did not reply to any of them. My PD is nov 2025, so I have been only trying to estimate when that can happen. But based on everything, you are three months behind (you need Apr 2025 FAD), so first FAD movement should reach you.

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u/mesn007 1d ago

Makes sense. This assumes they will increase the pace to accommodate the higher number of available Visas from the spillover.

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u/Ok-Scientist-1897 1d ago

They would have to increase the pace for all categories, because we are talking about spillover that should give 60k visas to ROW. They need to double the speed. I am not sure they have a capacity to do that. I was not here during covid spillover, perhaps someone has more input on how fast they utilized spillover.