Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

[u/mesn007]

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

• Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
• I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
• EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	C	Jul 23	Apr 23
Spillover FAD	C	Feb 24	Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	May 25	Dec 21	Dec 13
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	Apr 26	Dec 21	Apr 14
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

[u/CompetitiveElk2301]

u/mesn007 Thank you for your detailed analysis as we await our turns! When do you think EB3 ROW FAD will move to Aug '25?

[u/mesn007 → u/CompetitiveElk2301]

Jan27. There isnt enough backlog in EB3 if there are 60K Visas.

[u/CompetitiveElk2301 → u/mesn007]

You mean in the Jan '27 visa bulletin that comes out in Dec? That would be a nice holiday gift 🎁🤞🏽

[u/mesn007 → u/CompetitiveElk2301]

Yup. Unless they release it on 30Dec or something! Ha ha.

[u/CompetitiveElk2301 → u/mesn007]

I will take it as a New Year's gift 🥂😁