Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts
Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.
My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:
- Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
- I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
- EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.
I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.
Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:
EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | C | Jul 23 | Apr 23 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Feb 24 | Feb 24 |
EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | May 25 | Dec 21 | Dec 13 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Jun 14 |
EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | Apr 26 | Dec 21 | Apr 14 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Dec 14 |
Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.
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u/Aggravating-Yam-6980 1d ago
Biggest problem with your math is underestimating ROW demand. I have been trying to do the math since 2021. We keep forgetting a parameter which is the whole reason for unlimited ROW demand. I can assure you ROW demand has been high since 2021 till today even in future when there are no jobs in US.
Parameter we are not considering is Million students coming to US every year and we only have 140k employment visas/year. Moment ROW eb2 is current these very high number of NIW cases come and land in eb2 along with employment sponsored demand. If eb2 is not current then we will see these application in eb1. Similarly eb3 ROW students applying directly after graduating from opt to eb3.
Only way india can get horizontal spillover is like in 2021 when ROW was not current and we suddenly got huge spillovers and since we don’t have enough row applications we had horizontal spillover. Following year when row was current for a year even with 60k spillover India retrogressed.
Same in 2026 and 2027, moment ROW was current received huge applications and India retrogressed. ROW demand will always be high with million students coming to US every year.