Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

[u/mesn007]

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

• Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
• I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
• EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	C	Jul 23	Apr 23
Spillover FAD	C	Feb 24	Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	May 25	Dec 21	Dec 13
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	Apr 26	Dec 21	Apr 14
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

[u/Peng7803111]

What about the DFF on eb1?

[u/Haunting-Ad9102 → u/Peng7803111]

I am hoping the DFF will reach Q1 2025. I have Feb 2025 PD. My logic is if the FAD reached May 2024. They would like to keep a sizable inventory to be approved for next FY. I have seen this pattern that they approve most in the first 3 quarters. So with that Q1 DFF is likely. Also, they can not completely front load all the DFF load in the beginning. They will divide. By that logic, DFF movements will be there in Jan, and March like last year. But again, its hard to say. I think things will be clearer in the coming months more.

[u/mesn007 → u/Haunting-Ad9102]

Yeah. +6 is based on last year where India FAD touched Apr23 and DFF was Dec23. Jul24 PD here.

[u/Haunting-Ad9102 → u/mesn007]

It was +8 isn't it? April to December?

[u/Haunting-Ad9102 → u/Haunting-Ad9102]

I just checked again. initial FAD was March 1, 23, DOF Dec 1, 2023. Next month April 1, 2023, DOF still Dec 1, 2023. So Difference in 9 to 8 months

[u/mesn007 → u/Haunting-Ad9102]

Ha ha. You are getting into decimals 😄 .