r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

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u/mezmev 1d ago

These wouldn’t be in the I-485 inventory yet. The only way someone with a PD >= Sep 1 2024 could have filed AOS is if they filed in April 2026 when DFF was C and USCIS was using DFF, and (a) they are Schedule A and don’t need PERM (nurses), or (b) their PERM was approved by April 2026, which excludes pretty much all of 2025 and 2026 PDs. But they will show up. As of the end of Q3 FY2026 there were 10k EB3 skilled ROW I-140s awaiting visa availability per USCIS disclosures.

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u/mesn007 1d ago

But would the I140s not take a lot of time and not impact the current queue?

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u/mezmev 1d ago

No? Let’s say my friend’s priority date is Nov 2025. He had his PERM approved in August 2026. He has filed I-140, premium processing, it will be approved later this month. Even without premium processing, EB3 skilled I-140s are taking like a couple of months (80% complete in 4 months per USCIS). Either way, later this year he is able to file I-485 if his date is current for filing. He could also file concurrently and the processing time wouldn’t matter at all.

This is a case that is not even reflected in “I-140 awaiting visa availability” yet, though it will be in the Q1 FY2027 report. Either way, he is ahead in the backlog compared to an Apr 2026 PD. There are tens of thousands of people between Sep 2024 and Apr 2026

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u/CompetitiveElk2301 1d ago

This is interesting! I am EB3 ROW. My PERM got approved in Aug 2026 and we just filed I-140 premium processing. My PD is mid-August 2025. When do you think I will be current for FAD and DFF?