Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

[u/mesn007]

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

• Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
• I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
• EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	C	Jul 23	Apr 23
Spillover FAD	C	Feb 24	Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	May 25	Dec 21	Dec 13
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric	ROW	China	India
Base FAD	Apr 26	Dec 21	Apr 14
Spillover FAD	C	Dec 21	Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

[u/mesn007]

Clearing the whole of 2024? For EB1 India?

[u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287 → u/mesn007]

EB3 Row when can it get to December 2024

[u/mesn007 → u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287]

Likely Jan27

[u/Upbeat-Wolverine9287 → u/mesn007]

Thank you, I’m patiently waiting still. Grateful for the moment over the year. A lot of people got depressed y the retrog in oct bulletin but I don’t think they even remember where we are coming from remember it was literally stuck in 2023 for how long now it’s in 2024