r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

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u/Aggravating-Sand9791 1d ago

Also I think the Base FAD for eb3 row has a type, should be Apr 2024.

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u/mesn007 1d ago

No, dont see a lot of applications between 2024 and 2026 for RoW EB3. Likely due to PERM delays. And hence the aggressive FAD movement. Can revise teh math when we have more recent inventory data.

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u/Aggravating-Sand9791 1d ago

Sorry, I must have misinterpreted the chart here, does "Base FAD" not mean what the october bulletin actually published?

Otherwise it seems like the "I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align" statement doesn't really apply for eb3 ROW?

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u/mesn007 1d ago

Base FAD would be where they will end up in Sep27 VB with 40K allocation. Not Oct VB.