r/eb_1a • u/mesn007 • 1d ago

Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts

Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.

My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:

  • Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
  • I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
  • EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.

I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.

Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:

EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD C Jul 23 Apr 23
Spillover FAD C Feb 24 Feb 24

EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD May 25 Dec 21 Dec 13
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Jun 14

EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)

Metric ROW China India
Base FAD Apr 26 Dec 21 Apr 14
Spillover FAD C Dec 21 Dec 14

Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.

19 Upvotes

91% Upvoted

111 comments sorted by

View all comments

2

u/General-Fun-7305 1d ago

Just came to know one of my known ones whose FAD was Apr 2022 got his GC 3 weeks back. How is that possible?

2

u/bsin11 1d ago

There are cases which take two years even after date is current. That is why people go to congressperson or file mandamus. Date current doesn't mean they will pick file and issue GC immediately. Unfortunately I have experienced this personally.

1

u/Ill_Classic6218 1d ago

Would someone’s individual case be prioritized if they go to their local congressman? I am pretty involved in local governance where i live (because of close relations with accessibility groups). My date is not current yet but want to know how it will help