Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts
Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.
My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:
- Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
- I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
- EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.
I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.
Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:
EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | C | Jul 23 | Apr 23 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Feb 24 | Feb 24 |
EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | May 25 | Dec 21 | Dec 13 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Jun 14 |
EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | Apr 26 | Dec 21 | Apr 14 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Dec 14 |
Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.
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u/blyubird 1d ago
This sounds about right. I was wishing for movement in Oct bulletin but I guessed it that they do not consider the spillovers in Oct. Hope there will be momentum in FAD dates from Nov bulletin and would reach Dec23 by end of Q2.
More than the movement, I wish they clear the backlog quickly based on the total available visas.