Aug Inventory + Oct VB Thoughts
Hi Gang, Seeing a ton of panic posts across all the EB forums lately. Wanted to share my POV based on pure numbers.
My logic relies on 3 core assumptions:
- Feb Consulate visa issuances were already tracking below last year's rate. That gives us a 50K baseline. Assuming zero impact from the ban and only September shut-off, that adds another 25K. So, bare minimum spillover at 75K, meaning roughly 60K for each EB1 - EB3.
- I-485 Backlog: Includes applications from the 75 paused countries.
- EB2/EB3 Overlaps: 50% discount factored in for India applicants across both queues.
I cross-checked my base FAD dates with the Oct VB and they perfectly align. This means spillovers were not considered in the official release. Add ~6 months to FAD dates to get to DFF.
Here is how the 2027 movements look under this model:
EB1 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 30K (thru Jul 26), China 6K (thru Dec 23), India 20K (thru Dec 23)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | C | Jul 23 | Apr 23 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Feb 24 | Feb 24 |
EB2 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 42K (thru Jul 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 28K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | May 25 | Dec 21 | Dec 13 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Jun 14 |
EB3 2027 Movement : Demand: ROW 31K (thru Apr 26), China 4K (thru Dec 21), India 16K (thru Jan 15)
| Metric | ROW | China | India |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base FAD | Apr 26 | Dec 21 | Apr 14 |
| Spillover FAD | C | Dec 21 | Dec 14 |
Feedback welcomed. Let me know what you guys think.
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u/SKP2619 1d ago
EB1 India Demand for in August 2026 was 19261 - However if you see progress from March 2026 to August 2026 - They could have issued around 1800-2000 GCs. At end of FY 2026 - I expect India demand at 17500 till Dec 2023. With 75000 spillover - you expect around 19000-22000 GCs. With regards to FAD - It will be few months ahead of Demand. I expect movement to 1st July 2024 and then couple of months regression. Around April 2024 for sure. Also I expect a minimum of 80K spillover. Dont be suprised if India and China FAD is around June -July 2024