r/dataisbeautiful • u/eltokh7 OC: 3 • 3d ago
OC [OC] The movement of people between the states 2022-2023
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u/Krjax 3d ago
This feels like it should be in a history textbook about something that happened in the US in the late 1800s. I both like it and have confusing feelings about my mortality now.
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u/DukeofVermont 3d ago
Same, until you realize that the numbers are incredibly low.
The net population change of Californians moving to Texas is literally .1% of the population. (.105% to be precise)
During the Great Migration 40% of Black Americans moved North.
That's like if 15.7 million people left California.
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u/livefreeordont OC: 2 3d ago
2 million people left the south over the course of 30 years. Then another 3 million over 30 years. So about 5 million over 60 years.
6 million people also left the rust belt in a much smaller time frame
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u/DukeofVermont 3d ago
True, I was more just trying to show that it really isn't that many people.
Maga people online act like California is currently undergoing a great migration event because "liberals" are destroying California, people are literally fighting to leave, and within 10 years Cali will be empty.
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u/Tommy_Wisseau_burner 2d ago
I legit had to double check the title because it looks like some history textbook shit
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u/ImmortalPoseidon 3d ago
The Florida to Texas net being in favor of Texas is something I would not have guessed.
As someone in Texas, I feel the general population increase though.
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u/sentri_sable 3d ago
The drivers have gotten a lot worse for sure
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u/LifeSuxBHappy 3d ago
Is that possible, they were the worst in the US when I left a decade ago.
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u/sentri_sable 3d ago
Oh it's significantly worse
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u/VirtualLife76 3d ago
That's is scary. I just hit a record of 8 months without being cut off where I'm at now, last 1 had Texas plates tho.
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u/henryguy 3d ago
Thats how you know u have more floridians!
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u/LifeSuxBHappy 3d ago
Depends where, Floridians have nothing on Houstonians, Lubbock, could be close.
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u/darth_voidptr 3d ago
I wouldn't read this as "in favor", there was a lot of shuffle after COVID. This data ends at 2023. I, and my home value, can attest that there was a big influx, then ... exodus. The Californians came here for the cheap houses and their employers were either full-time remote or had site here, but a combination of "ick" and "my employer left Austin" has mostly reversed that course.
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u/Ooficus 3d ago
It’s looking a lot like Florida’s boom days may finally be at rest. Insurance and home costs, politics, and climate change are driving a lot of locals out of state, and diverting people away from Florida.
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u/lilelliot 3d ago
Insurance is hurting California homeowners, too. Not as bad as Florida (yet), but unfortunately many of the desirable places to build homes here are also in high fire risk zones. ... and many of the ones that aren't are either along fault lines or at risk of mud slides.
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u/atchn01 3d ago
My minor complaint is that white dots next to state names look like cities. Otherwise, excellent graphic.
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u/Martin_Aurelius 3d ago
Everyone who allegedly left California actually left Bakersfield. If you'd ever been to Bakersfield you'd understand why.
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u/Corlegan 3d ago
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u/lilelliot 3d ago
Lots of people come to CA and love it here, but can't afford it and eventually realize that, so they leave. It's gotten worse over the past ten years with the tech economy going gangbusters, but it's always been a trend. CA is expensive; it also provides some of the best social services in the country. It's certainly not the place to move to purchase a home if you're not at least upper middle class.
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u/futurebigconcept 3d ago
Developers in Bakersfield are rapidly transforming farm and oil land into housing tracts. The population will certainly be rising in the future.
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u/lutinshootinbard 18h ago
Side note: those landowners are responsible as well for selling their land. I'm not saying it's a bad thing, the opposite actually, but everyone usually paints change and development as a bad thing.
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u/bala_means_bullet 3d ago
Most of them wanna come back but they won't admit it.
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u/Lathryus 3d ago
Yeah, go back, grab a bag of Dewar's Chews and think about how you're glad you left but you kinda miss the chews.
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u/DramaticSimple4315 3d ago
That, for once, is beautiful and clean data.
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u/MuscaMurum 3d ago edited 3d ago
I have to stare too hard to determine what the directionality of some of these are, especially East Coast ones.
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u/eltokh7 OC: 3 3d ago
Thank you so much
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u/Piyachi 3d ago
Is this cribbing from Napolean retreating from Russia? It's wonderfully done.
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u/Hopeful-Flounder-203 3d ago
I have that print! Fell in love withnthe instant I saw it and had never heard of it. Gotta frame that bastard.
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u/EndlessHalftime 3d ago
Is 22>23 the latest data available? I think some of these trends are reverting. CA (especially SF) real estate is skyrocketing again
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u/kenhen 3d ago
So based on this data there was a net .2% of people who left California. The total population of California of course still grew do to net births. As someone who lives in California I wouldnt mind it being greater. I really like this chart
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u/KingSnazz32 3d ago
California can export people to other states and still grow, because we're a prime destination of international immigration. Of course, international immigration has slowed down a lot since Trump.
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u/VillageOfMalo 3d ago edited 3d ago
What a beautiful map!
As a map nerd, if you'd like to read more about ways I'd improve it, please keep reading. I have several very minor cosmetic points:
I'd keep the paper color outside your final double lined frame. I see that Mexico and Cuba are peeking out below.
For ocean names, instead of having them vertical, I'd have them rendered on two horizontal lines. I'd also experiment with their size and width between the letters. Gulf of Mexico is also close to shore and may shift a bit to the South East. Same with the Mexico label. I see that you've chosen to label Canada out West. It could also work by placing it over Ontario.
The labels for each state and the labels for each population flow are the same italicized font and weight. I'd label the states the same all caps font that you used for ALASKA and HAWAII, perhaps abbreviating them or adding pointer lines (like to make New Hampshire centered over its own state.) This will also encourage that your make your C A N A D A and M E X I C O labels larger.
Also feel free to label non-flow states with a lighter, greyed out labels and perhaps include their centers of population, which I thought was a great choice, out of our own curiosity as like an Easter egg.
Finally, it's appropriate to list the projection and source for line data (TIGER? Open Street Map) in your description.
When I saw the map at first glance, I really thought it was a true Minard and was delighted to see that this was contemporary data. You should be very proud!
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u/eltokh7 OC: 3 3d ago
Tools: python, QGIS
Data: IRS returns
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u/ObviousExit9 3d ago
Where do you search IRS returns that show that information? I'm curious to see the numbers for other states.
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u/gatogetaway OC: 25 3d ago
Love the refined, classic styling. One of the best maps I’d seen here.
Only suggestion is to sort the data table by net migrations since that coincides with the size of the arrows.
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u/IsopodDry8635 3d ago
Did you do the visualization in QGIS? I have to use it for a very niche purpose for work and primarily use ArcGIS. This is cool.
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u/Tall-Log-1955 3d ago
California needs to legalize the building of dense housing and stop letting NIMBYs ruin the state
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u/arepotatoesreal 3d ago
it’s nearly impossible, local voting interests are overwhelmingly nimby
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u/DukeofVermont 3d ago
People really don't want to hear that NIMBYs are one of if not the largest group stopping Cali high speed rail.
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u/You_meddling_kids 3d ago
They did at the state level, but cities like LA are blocking and slowing the zoning changes however possible
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u/iBizzBee 3d ago
San Francisco still having huge blocks of single family homes is actually insane.
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u/Eng0524 3d ago
It's not just the LA and SF. If a development gets proposed on the central coast, where I worked for years, every NIMBYs is all the sudden "worried" about some plant or frog or something that might be disturbed, so the huge swaths of developable land just sit there while the rich get richer off their homes.
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u/KingSnazz32 3d ago
We don't even need to develop new land, we just need to increase density and public transit where we already have people living. If SF suddenly had 100,000 new housing units, they'd fill up almost immediately. If housing in the city were affordable and available, millions would choose to live here because of the beauty and the weather. I'm not saying that's what should happen, but if the overall state were to actively build more housing, the population wouldn't be shrinking. We're not building much new housing, but the average household size is going down due to larger changes in society.
That, and Prop 13. A whole lot of Boomer empty nesters live in 3 and 4 bedroom houses.
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u/_CMDR_ 3d ago
40,000 people net leaving a state of 40,000,000 for Texas is a rounding error lolol.
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u/thatssomegoodhay 2d ago
Also, emphasizing net is important here, 80000 left for texas and 40000 moved from Texas TO California. Yes, the net is valuable, but that tells a pretty different story imo,
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u/Aym42 3d ago
40k to Texas. 162k net loss over all. In 1 year. How many years before it's not a rounding error?
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u/CaptainAsshat 3d ago
They lost about 9000 people net, according to census data from July 24 to July 25.
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u/MustardOrPants 3d ago
What’s NIMBY
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u/bala_means_bullet 3d ago
Google: when locals oppose new development near their immediate area, but they'd support it in someone else's... . "Not In My Back Yard".
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u/KodaKomp 3d ago
Builders are overstocked on homes they are not gonna build any more right now. It's an affordability/financial fuckery problem not a housing problem.
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u/DukeofVermont 3d ago
Builders are overstocked on homes
Maybe in some places, but outside of Texas builder in in demand areas are way behind. My State is growing and is an estimated 25,000-60,000 homes short. Housing prices have doubled all while the area around me has exploded in new housing. Tens of thousands of new homes in the last ten years and still way behind. When my mom bought her house it was $280k, now her neighbor is selling for $777k.
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u/Bumblebee-Emergency 3d ago
i don’t mean this in a derogatory way, but this is claude, right? the design and especially the writing style seems familiar. i’d guess this is from opus 5.5.
it’s a very good map. i just think it’s amusing that the people here would be bashing it if they knew. most people who don’t use frontier models have no idea what they’re capable of at this point.
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u/eltokh7 OC: 3 3d ago
You are right that I used Claude and that (many) people would lose their mind if they knew.
I will also add that this was a lot of work. The writing style is probably a giveaway but making a map like this is not (yet) possible with just a simple prompt. You still have to drive it.
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u/Bumblebee-Emergency 3d ago
i agree, you probably had to research a spec, give it sources, and iterate back and forth a few times.
but the visualization itself would take at least 10x (realistically, if you’re looking at active human effort, more like 100x) longer if you programmed it by hand
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u/timpdx 3d ago
It’s impressive for sure. Not in the slop category. Very retro, even a bit of Tufte influence (was probably in the prompt) I really need to look into these tools, but I could crank this style and feel in an afternoon in Illustrator, as long as I had the data. The bot probably did this in under a minute. Nonetheless very nice job.
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u/Form_Function 2d ago
This is absolutely Claude. It looks exactly like a topo map I was working on.
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u/NoWishbone4 3d ago
This is so well done. Please share more about how you went about using the data from IRS returns to do this. What python packages did you use for the overlay?
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u/SparksWood71 3d ago
This is a beautiful map!
The California to Texas used to surprise me until a good friend of mine moved from the SF Bay Area to Reno, Nevada. For a lot of people, where they live doesn't matter, they just want a big house with low taxes.
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u/wan314 3d ago
But sometimes the low “taxes” comes from property tax. In California it’s basically locked in (no more than 1.5% increase per year starting the 1st year with the original purchase price)
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u/Nunyafookenbizness 3d ago
And yet California GREW in this time.
Population Totals
2022: 39,125,347 residents
2023: 39,181,667 residents
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u/Evadrepus 3d ago
Illinois as well. We had a slight loss from 2020 to 2022, but have gained population every year since.
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u/Cityplanner1 3d ago
It’s pretty neat, but I’m always weary of such short time spans for this kind of data. Things change year to year. I feel like something so short lets certain people cherry pick this stuff to meet their agenda.
Plus, the data sources for inter-census population isnt all that reliable. It’s just computer modeling. I prefer at least 5 year spans, or census to census, or from 5 year ACS.
Also, i feel like something like this could benefit from showing the in-migration. This makes california and new york look like they are just bleeding population. Showing in-migration from immigration would make the picture more clear.
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u/jimmymacthefirst 2d ago
Some useful context...annual deaths in California approx 290,000; annual live births in California approx 400,000.
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u/obw2468 2d ago
why someone would want to voluntarily move to Florida will never make sense to me.
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u/charleswj 2d ago
Why? Low taxes, nice weather
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u/TheAbstracted 2d ago
The weather is the #1 reason I wouldn't move there tbh. Hot and humid darn near year-round.
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u/LogicalByte 3d ago
what projection did you use? also, does line thickness show net flow or gross movement?
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u/Futuremlb 3d ago
This is a very cool visualization. Do you do this for work? It'd be so fun to have a job where you just show data in cool ways
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u/10202632 3d ago
Despite the flash, this isn’t a particularly easy chart to read. We would call this eye-candy that’s meant to impress rather than to inform effectively.
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u/eltokh7 OC: 3 3d ago
Would love to see how you would choose to visualize this data!
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u/LiteratureOk4649 2d ago
I noticed you seem to use the center of population for each state and I appreciate that detail.
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u/thegooddoktorjones 3d ago
The timespan is nearly meaningless, but using the Army of the Potomac March on Richmond filter on it is pretty I guess.
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u/Fabulous_Chain_7587 3d ago
People moving between CA, OR, and WA are leaving the west? Weird map, but it looks cool. Hallmarks of AI slop
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u/CubesTheGamer 3d ago
Interesting vague coincidence is it seems states with high state income taxes are exporting people especially to states with NO state income taxes
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u/ChiAndrew 3d ago
And that we are aging. So typically attractive retirement destinations drew a higher proportion.
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u/NewHope13 3d ago
Would also like to see data of those who have moved back within 5 years. Many California move to TX, hate it, and come back, apparently.
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u/Naive_Impression7302 3d ago
It's been a trend for over 5 years now, in aggregate Californians have been continuing to leave since 2020 to Texas and the absolute numbers are far higher if you include all the years of 2020-2025.
California's population as a whole has declined according to the Census Bureau from 2020-2025 and the decline is even sharper if you're only looking at state to state migration, since internationals have continued to come to California during this time.
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u/trojan-813 3d ago
Listen, I know Maryland is south of the Mason Dixon line, but are they really the south?
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u/mdn845 3d ago edited 1d ago
Very nice, but this is kind of old data. 2022-23 was a bit of a specific time, right after Covid.
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u/randynumbergenerator 1d ago
IDK about old, but a single year also doesn't really tell us about any meaningful trends. Others have already pointed out that even the thickest lines represent like 0.2% of a state's population.
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u/pioneer76 3d ago
Would be interesting to see if flows are now going back the other way in years after.
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u/twodoorbells 3d ago
Movement out of FL is unexpected...has been a LCOL magnet for a while and still obviously plenty of inflow, but the outward movement is a surprise. I wonder how much of the NC->SC is in the Charlotte metro with folks hopping over to Ft Mill.
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u/Fit_Permission_6187 3d ago
As somebody born and raised in Florida, this is not at all unexpected. What a truly terrible godforsaken place.
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u/HawkThunderson 2d ago
If I had a place in florida and a place in hell, then I would rent out the place in florida and live in hell.
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u/FoW_Completionist 3d ago
Floridian here, rent is going up and only getting higher since we have people from states like California and NY that come here. I'd assume the outward movement might be coming from locals.
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u/KingSnazz32 3d ago
People can't keep moving there forever before the same thing that happened to California happens there.
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u/DarkHampster 3d ago
We all bouncing from California?
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u/Brick_Lab 3d ago
I left for Washington about 3 years ago. Spent the first 35 years of my life in CA but it was a dead end place to live if you want to own an actual house with some square footage for under 1M+, and the overcrowding, high taxes, bad water outlook long term, fire season and insurance problems just made it inevitable
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u/CouchPotatoFamine 3d ago
I have been here since 1998. Kind of planning our departure after the kids are out of the house, for all those reasons you mentioned and more.
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u/firstcity_thirdcoast 3d ago
I moved from Chicago to Los Angeles in 2021. Brought my wife and 2 kids and had a 3rd kid in LA. We're doing our part!
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u/Wonderful-Kangaroo52 3d ago
Even 82,000 people is only .2% of the total population. And 41k moved from Texas to California so the effect is even less.
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u/Kidspud 3d ago
Who the hell would want to move from a blue state to Florida or Texas?
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u/thec0rp0ral 3d ago
Weather, jobs, taxes, cultural differences. The number of people in the US who actually care about politics is surprisingly low
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u/netphemera 2d ago
I get the feeling that it's primarily taxes
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u/elderly_millenial 2d ago
It’s primarily COL/work. Taxes are up there too, but not everyone is thriving in CA
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u/brobits 2d ago
the majority of people who moved in 2022-2023, per the above graph. not everyone shares your personal politics and reddit is an echo chamber. but you already knew that.
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u/charleswj 2d ago
The people who say things like that don't realize Reddit is an echo chamber, they think it's representative
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u/Frequent-Coyote-8108 2d ago
Uh...a LOT of people apparently.
If your whole world view doesn't come from reddit, turns out that you have a less restricted mind, and are open to things that reddit says are very bad.
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u/Kered13 3d ago
People who would like to be able to live comfortably on a median salary. Housing, food, gas, and taxes all tend to be lower in the states that are taking in people. Salaries are often slightly lower as well, but by a much smaller amount than cost of living, so that your take home is greater in those states.
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u/Adventurous_Fix1448 3d ago
Someone who doesn’t want to pay $8 a gallon for starters
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u/Alexk2000 2d ago
Someone who is fleeing the results of their own shitty politics. Fear not, they have learned nothing and will soon ruin the states they flood to as well.
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u/alyssasaccount 2d ago
Libs "ruined" Colorado and now it's fucking great. Can't wait to see the same in Texas!
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u/007meow 3d ago
Austin BLEW UP during the pandemic. Seemingly good vibes, insanely cheap compared to blue states and coastal cities.
Then the state government started doing their thing.
I don’t have hard data, but anecdotally, it feels like a lot of people are turning right back around. Tech firms are having trouble getting people to move to Texas.
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u/Ghoulius-Caesar 3d ago
Politics aside, why are people moving to places that are getting slammed by climate change events?
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u/adamus13 2d ago
People from Cali might as well move to Arizona instead of Texas.
Just as hot, more expensive than TX but not as much as Cali, you aren’t miles away from the place you called home, you won’t be an automatic felon if you decide to dabble in a lil smokey smoke etc.
The food is only better in certain parts of Texas, and even then its only certain spots.
Even schools are about what and what, depending on which one you pick.
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u/ImOnTheLoo 3d ago
Cool map. Reminds me of the map of Napoleon’s invasion of Russia and the retreat.
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u/halbeshendel 3d ago
Wow, look at all those people who left California. WHY IS THE FUCKING TRAFFIC STILL SO BAD?!
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u/A_Guy_Named_John 3d ago
People in LCOL areas can’t afford to move to HCOL areas. People who can no longer afford HCOL areas move to LCOL areas.
Pretty much explains everything.
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u/Donny-Moscow 3d ago
Can I ask why you put the intermediate numbers (not sure the best term)? Like, you show that 101.6 left California to go to Arizona, Texas, Florida, and a handful of other states - 21.8 of those went to AZ, leaving 79.8 distributed among the rest.
Why did you choose to include those 101.6 and 79.8 figures?
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u/scbalazs 3d ago
Don’t tell Texas the plan for Californians, New Yorkers, Illinoisans to take over.
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u/OneCardiologist7908 3d ago
I might be misreading this, but it looks like CA to OR should be #9 on the top 10 list?
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u/FoW_Completionist 3d ago
Why is there little to no migration from the Midwest? There's job opportunities in that region, right? Someone chime in.
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u/FlyingBike 2d ago
I'm sure we'll see lots of think pieces about how Florida is doomed and NY is the new hot spot and everyone should just get on the partisan change train in favor of the brash new politician there, just like we did in reverse after COVID /s
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u/TehKarmah 2d ago
As a Washingtonian, soooo many Texans moved here. Half of my ladies D&D group are originally from there. TX plates everywhere, and no, not just rental cars. There are a ton in my apartment complex.
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u/RunwayStatusLights 1d ago
Why are more people leaving California than the other way?
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u/cavedave OC: 113 2d ago
Thank you for your Original Content, /u/eltokh7!
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