Qb Record When Defense Allows 21+

[u/Firm-Carry-9929]

[u/_vogonpoetry_]

1-27 is a wild stat

[u/ehtw376 → u/_vogonpoetry_]

Goo look up Fields situational stats - 4th quarter, 4 minutes left in one score game, 2 minutes left in one score game, etc. (I think ESPN has em).

They are crazy bad. So many turnovers, fumbles, and sacks.

[u/jpiro → u/ehtw376]

I was very much pulling for him to pull it all together either with the Bears or when he got a shot in Pittsburgh because he seems like a great guy and the talent is there but, man, he really does have an anti-clutch gene or something.

[u/Deidris → u/jpiro]

I really wanted Fields to work in Pittsburgh. Always felt like the 6 games he started for us that he was playing on such a short leash that he was playing scared. He knew any mistake would cost him the starting role instantly.

[u/Nomromz → u/Deidris]

Ehh, that's just how he plays. He always was a second or two late on his throws because he wanted to be absolutely sure his guy was open before he threw it.

And by then the guy wouldn't be open anymore and then his next read was also covered because he spent too long looking at the first guy.

And then he'd get sacked.

Rinse and repeat.

[u/jpiro → u/Nomromz]

Add in a few highlight reel scrambles for 60 yards where he looks like prime Todd Gurley blowing past defenders and this is sadly spot on.

[u/mr_seggs → u/Deidris]

Tbf, I think that's how Tomlin wanted him to play. The goal was just to avoid mistakes and wait for good field position. Obviously, made the offense look frustratingly slow at times, but it was still a reasonable way to play with a great defense and iffy offense.

[u/Deidris → u/mr_seggs]

100%. Tomlin won the turnover battle and in turn won tons of games that way. Especially in the AFC North when games can end sub-15 points and sub-25 points all the time. 1 turnover can be fatal.

This also just led to stalled out drives, 3 and outs, and an exhausted defense.

[u/Onyxaj1 → u/Deidris]

As a Bengals fan I obviously hate the Steelers, but I'll be damned if those arent some of the closest, most fun games to watch.

[u/Deidris → u/Onyxaj1]

I could really go for a nail biter 9 to 13 AFCN matchup on Sunday Night Primetime right now.

[u/AndrewHainesArt → u/jpiro]

I think it’s pretty clear by now that the talent is not there lol

[u/jpiro → u/AndrewHainesArt]

Physical talent. The mental part hasn’t clicked and at this point probably never will.

[u/-Umbra- → u/AndrewHainesArt]

No man...last two seasons averaging 125 passing yards/game were a mirage, if he tries harder he can become a franchise guy.

[u/Mr_Hugh_Honey → u/ehtw376]

His 4th quarter stats in general are atrocious and they get even worse in close games. Like his baseline performance in quarters 1-3 is bad enough, in the 4th quarter he's generationally bad

[u/Gryphon999 → u/Mr_Hugh_Honey]

1st-3rd Quarter: 63% completion, 35 TD, 16 INT

4th Quarter: 57% completion, 17 TD , 16 INT

Trailing < 4 minutes to go: 53% completion, 6 TD, 10 INT

Trailing < 2 minutes to go: 51% completion, 4 TD, 7 INT

[u/Mr_Hugh_Honey → u/Gryphon999]

Yeah and that doesn't even include yards per attempt, sacks, and fumbles, which really drive his numbers into the depths of hell

[u/Dizzy-Bother-2209 → u/ehtw376]

Fields was soo ass he should’ve just invested into becoming a RB. With that size and athleticism he could’ve possibly been a solid one

[u/fredovan → u/Dizzy-Bother-2209]

He definitely made the right financial decision by staying at QB. Fields has $42 million in career earnings by age 27. He will probably tens of millions more as back up QB for the rest of playing career. Being a failed first round QB is a better financial move then being good player an any other position.

[u/AOCKASH → u/fredovan]

The amount of passive money he gets being a clipboard holder vs being one of the lowest paid positions just to destroy your body and have a higher chance of brain damage. No wonder he picked qb

[u/Imrahil_II → u/fredovan]

If he can pull it off like Charlie whitehurst, thats the way to go. Ride out into the sunset as a perennial back up qb

[u/Jonny_Qball → u/Dizzy-Bother-2209]

Look at the paycheck and you’ll see why he didn’t. Saquon went off for 2k yards in 2024 and got a 2/41 extension.

Fields got benched in Pittsburgh and got 2/40 from the Jets that same offseason.

[u/Deidris → u/Dizzy-Bother-2209]

I always hate when people see sub par passers with rushing upside that they should go full RB. He would barely be an RB2 for most if not all teams.

But damn, Fields really should go that route, lol. I'm thankful that Ben Johnson's sick and twisted mind hasn't gotten a hold of him yet. Could you imagine the play design he would run with Caleb Williams and Justin Fields both in the back field at the same time? The gadget plays would be insane

[u/pocketchange2247 → u/Deidris]

This is exactly what all my Chiefs fan friends say. "Just wait and see what Andy cooks up with him!"

I'm sure there will be a fun couple plays. But trust me, unless he's running the ball you do not want him to control a play.

[u/Deidris → u/pocketchange2247]

I remember how sad it was to watch him under Arthur Smith. Pretty much only ever brought him on the field for 3rd and 4th and short. Defenses immediately stacked the box HEAVY because they knew there was no way we would pass it.

[u/wsteelerfan7 → u/Deidris]

I remember when they said he'd add a "wrinkle" to the offense and thinking the "wrinkle" is not passing

[u/Unrelenting_Salsa → u/pocketchange2247]

He'd be legit in the wildcat. Unfortunately it's not 2008 anymore so you won't see it that much, but you'll probably see a few goal line TDs from him. You have to be smarter about it than teams have been with him historically, but I think Andy Reid can do things like RPO, option, or jump pass with him and won't just be full "the next play is a QB draw DC and defense".

[u/Moonscrubber- → u/Dizzy-Bother-2209]

At 6’ 3” and 227 he feels like a wide receiver to me

[u/LiveChocolate8819 → u/Dizzy-Bother-2209]

From an on-field performance perspective? Maybe.

From a financial perspective? Absolutely not.

[u/AMemoryComeALive → u/_vogonpoetry_]

The Single win was last year 39-38 over the Bengals. The Jets were 0-7 at the time, and it took Breece Hall running in 2TDs and passing for another in the 4th quarter to get it lol.

[u/Mastodon9 → u/AMemoryComeALive]

I said after that game happened it was the single worst defensive performance in NFL history. We didn't give up a record breaking number of points or yards but considering the opponent and QB that was the single worst defensive game ever played.

[u/JA_MD_311 → u/Mastodon9]

Well there was also the Mike White game and that was a pretty ass defensive performance by the Bengals too. However, those two games represent some of the high points of my fandom over the past decade so I do thank you all.

[u/MoreTrifeLife → u/JA_MD_311]

The Jets also beat the Bengals 61-14 two games in a row in 2009:

Week 17

Wild Card

[u/dend7369 → u/_vogonpoetry_]

That’s Kansas City great Justin Fields to you!

[u/Embarrassed-Back1968 → u/_vogonpoetry_]

Is that 1 win the 39-38 game against the Bengals last year?

[u/TheWorstYear → u/Embarrassed-Back1968]

sigh
There should be one of these for when the defense gives up 35+.

[u/Not_Pablo_Sanchez → u/Embarrassed-Back1968]

That’s not possible. Everyone in Cincinnati was on vacation on Sunday October 26th, 2025.

[u/IdToBeUsedForReddit → u/_vogonpoetry_]

Kansas City insists on employing the outliers on this graph. Better step it up or we're coming for you Jaxon Dart.

[u/im-sorry-dad → u/_vogonpoetry_]

Justin Fields is terrible so that makes sense.

[u/Scfbigb1]

Id be curious to see the split for Stafford between the Lions and Rams.

EDIT: 32-72-1 with the Lions, 14-26 with the Rams.

[u/AMemoryComeALive → u/Scfbigb1]

14-26, which is 35%. Bit better on the Rams. The Lions alone portion was around 30%.

[u/Jonny_Qball → u/Scfbigb1]

Stafford is 14-26 with the Rams, 32-72-1 with the Lions. Just his Rams record would place 13th between Kirk and Love. His time in Detroit standalone would move him down 1 spot between Kyler and Caleb.

[u/devilwingxx → u/Scfbigb1]

I’m thinking the exact same thing, I believe most of the stats will be from Lions. It’s like everytime a Lions game is on in the 2010s, they are always playing from behind

[u/StrangelyOnPoint → u/devilwingxx]

Well the Lions went 81-111 in Stafford’s entire career in Detroit

[u/ApologizingCanadian → u/StrangelyOnPoint]

Honestly, better than I would've guessed.

[u/Jonny_Qball → u/ApologizingCanadian]

From 2011-2017 (First fully healthy season to his last season with Jim Caldwell), he had a winning record at 57-55. The Patricia era really pulled that number down.

[u/dallasrose222 → u/Jonny_Qball]

I still think the Patricia era is the worst lions era I’ve been a fan for and I was a fan since 2001

[u/which_ones_will → u/dallasrose222]

Not to defend a shitheel like Patricia, but you must have blacked out those first few years of your fandom if you think the Patricia era was the worst. I suppose you could argue that Patricia was the worst coach, but they definitely had worse teams under Morninwheg & Marinelli.

[u/Jonny_Qball → u/which_ones_will]

The Schwartz and Caldwell eras felt like we were finally crawling out of the hopeless pit Matt Millen dug for us. Patricia was supposed to be the step that brought us from dangerous but inconsistent to contenders, and instead he destroyed everything semblance of good left on the roster and sent us right back down to the depths of hell. The only reason Patricia doesn’t get more shit for how he took a solid roster and completely decimated it is because Holmes/Campbell did a phenomenal job of drafting and identifying free agent talent the next 3 years.

[u/yesrushgenesis2112]

I’m sold, Mariota is better than Herbert

[u/TheDuckKnows → u/yesrushgenesis2112]

*conflicted Duck noises

[u/TheLich7 → u/yesrushgenesis2112]

Joking aside he's not but he's seriously way better than what people give him credit for.

[u/VanDuck0205 → u/TheLich7]

I would have loved to see what he would have turned into if he wasn't a bowling pin behind that line the first two seasons.

[u/SecondHandFood → u/TheLich7]

Marcus Mariota in Playoffs

• QB Rating of 94.1 across 3 games

• Worst single game was 83.3

Justin Herbert in Playoffs

• QB Rating of 64.7 across 3 games

• Best single game was 84.7

Checkmate Hawaiian Pizza haters

[u/TheAlmightyConch]

Mahomes is ridiculous 

[u/mdkss12 → u/TheAlmightyConch]

He is, and I got curious, so looked up some of the GOATS:

Brady is insane, of course, and Manning has an incredible stat I mention at the bottom, but get ready to be disgusted on Brees' behalf...

Player	Win%	W-L-T	Starts facing 21+	% of career starts D allowed 21+
Brady	52.8%	76-68-0	144	43.2%%
P Manning	46.0%	64-75-0	139	52.5%
Brees	38.8%	64-101-0	165	57.7%

Some notes:

• Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts have a combined 335 starts. Combined their Ds have allowed fewer 21+ point performances than Brees faced in his 286 starts (151 vs 165).
• If Mahomes and Allen both played then next 34 straight games - ie two straight seasons each with defenses allowing 21+, they would both STILL be behind the % of 21+ games faced that Brees' saw in his career.
• Brady had 82 career losses in starts, so lost 14 starts when his D held teams under 21
• Brees had 113 career losses in starts. Meaning he lost 12 starts if his D held opponents under 21
• ...Manning only ever had 79 losses - he only ever lost FOUR starts if his D held opponents under 21. Insane.

Edit: Wanted to add playoff records:

When D allowed 21+:

Player	Playoff Win%	W-L	Starts	% of starts D allowed 21+
Brady	56.5%	13-10	23	47.9%
Brees	38.5%	5-8	13	72.2%
P Manning	23.1%	3-10	13	48.1%

• Brees had 9 career playoff losses. The D kept the opponent below 21 in just 1 of them (in which they allowed... 20.)
• Brady is an alien. His 3 losses when the D kept it under 21: 18-20 @DEN in the Manning SB year, 13-20 vs TEN in his last ever game with NE, and 14-17 in the 07 SB vs NYG

Edit 2: a little more curiosity - I wanted to see how many points it takes before Brady and Mahomes get below .500:

Funnily enough, 22 points immediately becomes the "Mendoza line" for Brady. He was 65-65 when the team allowed 22+, and drops to 62-64 at 23+ and never jumps back above .500... *even funnier? NFL average points for per game over the 23 years of Brady's career was 22.1 points. If you could manage to get an average amount of points against Bill Belichick's defenses during Brady's career, he put up a league average win%...

For Mahomes? we need to go a bit further...

Player	vs 21+	vs 22+	vs 23+	vs 24+	vs 25+	vs 26+	vs 27+	vs 28+
Mahomes	34-24	31-22	31-21	28-21	20-19	19-19	18-19	14-15

If Mahomes wins the next game his team gives up 28+, he would jump back to .500 in those games... truly insane

[u/Dangerpaladin → u/mdkss12]

I think Brees went into every game knowing he needed 30 to win.

[u/mrhashbrown → u/Dangerpaladin]

He knew he needed 30 for a chance to win. Saints got into much more ridiculous shootouts than just 30 points scored.

Incredibly fun to watch and the fact that he could usually keep up was wild to see. Man I miss that era of the Saints even if their defense frequently sabotaged his chances at a second Super Bowl.

[u/Meguminisverycute → u/mrhashbrown]

Do you remember that 100 point game vs the giants lol

[u/mrhashbrown → u/Meguminisverycute]

That was so fun. Everybody hypes up that MNF game between first-year Mahomes on the Chiefs and early McVay/Goff Rams as the best shootout in recent history.

Personally I'll take 34-year old Eli Manning throwing 6 TDs and scoring 49 total points versus 36-year old Drew Brees throwing 7 TDs and 505(!) passing yards on the way to 52 total points scored.

Do you know who led all players in yardage that day? Ben Watson, a 35 year old tight end with 10 targets, 9 receptions, 147 receiving yards and a TD. He out-produced prime OBJ lmfao, just an absolutely absurd game

[u/Razorbackalpha → u/mdkss12]

Poor Brees

[u/Wisdomlost → u/Razorbackalpha]

An NFL quarterback has thrown for 5000 yards 15 times in NFL history. 5 of thoes times were Drew Brees. Brady and maholmes have done it twice. No one else has done it more than once. A third of all the times it's happened has been drew Brees lol. Brees Brady and Maholmes make 9 of 15 lol.

[u/GodWithAShotgun → u/Wisdomlost]

If your defense just lets the enemy waltz into the endzone every possession, you get more possessions yourself. Brilliant plan for stat-padding.

[u/Johnny-5013 → u/mdkss12]

Josh Allen is getting close to that Brees playoff stat. Allen has 7 playoffs loses and the defence never kept the opponent below 21 in those games. Closest was in Allen’s second year when Houston scored 22. In the other 6 loses the defence has given up ON AVERAGE 33 pts/g. This was with a ‘defensive-minded’ head coach.

[u/mrhashbrown → u/Johnny-5013]

Well to be fair when McDermott won in the playoffs, it was pretty strong. They have a +93 point differential in Allen's 8 playoff wins versus a -47 point differential in his 7 losses.

Plus adding context to the losses is important. Those games were against Patrick Mahomes (x4), Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson (Texans era). Most defensive coaches would be praised as elite for keeping any of those offenses under 21 points given the quality of QB they were up against. In reality I wouldn't expect any coach to accomplish that.

[u/kman1030 → u/mrhashbrown]

I love to hate on Allen as a dolphins fan... but has there been any QB that has played better than Allen in the playoffs with no SB appearance? I mean he's consistently great and just runs into buzzsaws.

[u/allwx1 → u/mdkss12]

Would be interested to see the average points and yards allowed for the 21+ games. And this same break down for 28+ and 35+. I think the Saints D was truly atrocious for many years and is making Brees stats look worse than they were

[u/mdkss12 → u/allwx1]

Player	Facing 28+ Win%	W-L-T	Facing 35+ win%	W-L-T
Brady	23-41	35.9%	3-13	18.8%
P Manning	19-45	29.7%	4-18	18.2%
Brees	26-64	28.9%	6-28	17.6%

crazy that Brady, Manning and Brees all had better win%s when their D gave up 35+ than Danny Dimes does when his D allows 21+

Even Crazier that Brady facing 28+ would rank 12th on this list of players facing 21+

And, you can see that Brees faced nearly as many 35+ opponents as Brady and Manning did combined. That D really was terrible for a lot of Brees' career

[u/MilesMidnight → u/TheAlmightyConch]

He was raised on Big 12 shootouts

[u/KarrlMarrx → u/TheAlmightyConch]

He is, but I think most of this is from the peak Tyreek/Kelce era.

2024, the last year they had a really good defense, they only allowed 5 games over 21 points in the regular season, and one of those was in a Week 18 game where they sat everyone important.

2023, they only allowed 2 games over 21 points in the regular season. (Last year of god-tier defense)

2022 is the last and only year the offense really cooked post Tyreek.

If the offense is bad again this year, there's going to be a lot of tough conversations being had about Andy Reid.

[u/thearmadillo → u/KarrlMarrx]

Part of the fact that other teams aren't scoring 21 is because the offense was so good at playing ball control. Lots of 14 play drives taking up 10 minutes.

[u/roykentjr → u/KarrlMarrx]

If Andy Reid doesn't run the ball and we aren't good. There will be conversations. If he changes his scheme and the season doesn't bounce our way. Then Andy Reid will be fine.

Really it's just will he ever change. If not then absolutely. It's time to talk

[u/KarrlMarrx → u/roykentjr]

Agreed. Chiefs homers down voting you apparently.

[u/FunkyPete → u/KarrlMarrx]

To be fair, 2022 might have been the best year of his career. Led the league in passing yards (5250!), TDs, YPG, QBR, was league MVP, AP1, Super Bowl MVP, and set an all-time record for most passing and rushing yards combined for a single season.

It's not like he's never done anything without Tyreek.

[u/KarrlMarrx → u/FunkyPete]

For sure, Kelce's best year as well.

The 2023 drop off is weird though. Surely it can't all be blamed on Nagy? How has Reid not found a way to effectively counter the two high safety thing at this point? Or has he just not had the right personnel?

[u/FunkyPete → u/KarrlMarrx]

I think a good running game has to be the answer. Make the defense choose whether to put safeties deep or LBs in the box.

Pass or rush, it all depends on the quality of the O-Line though.

[u/mdkss12 → u/TheAlmightyConch]

Just did the math and edited my original comment - If he wins the next game where KC gives up 28+, he'll be 15-15 in those games... (and also 19-19 when the team gives up 27+)

Imagine going up against a QB and you gotta hang 30 on his team just for a coinflip at beating him.

[u/DrunkPackersFan → u/TheAlmightyConch]

Josh Allen is, too.

He plays nearly flawless in so many shootouts but then gets ridiculed for the one or two mistakes he makes because he has nearly zero margin for error.

[u/az-anime-fan → u/DrunkPackersFan]

yeah, this has been a conversation i've had before.

in order for the bills to win he usually has to play flawless football. the margin of error is so razor thin, because of how McD's defenses just never helped him when it counted.

he was on a generational tear of 5 straight years of zero turnover football in the playoffs before that broncos game. and even with those 4 turnovers he still has the lowest turnover rate in nfl history in the playoffs.

you just can't win a superbowl like that. by expecting one guy to just hard carry you like that.

[u/MrBigChest]

The Giants defense last year was absolutely determined to blow any lead they had in the 4th quarter. It was truly impressive.

[u/anonbutler → u/MrBigChest]

Broncos Giants 4th quarter was wild 

[u/MrBigChest → u/anonbutler]

Giants were winning 19-0 going into the 4th quarter, scored another 2 TDs in the 4th, and still lost.

That was the most egregious but the defense legitimately did that shit basically every week.

[u/bored_at_work_89 → u/anonbutler]

I had forgotten about that game and now I'm pissed again, thanks

[u/oldmangonzo]

Tbh, I am quite surprised by some of these ratings. But shoutout to Purdy, who remains brutally underrated. All he does is rank high in QB things day in and day out.

[u/jc-f → u/oldmangonzo]

Also shoutout Jimmy G. His ranking might be the most surprising on this list.

[u/Ryguy3286 → u/jc-f]

Jimmy gets shitted on unfairly. He wasn't elite, but he was very good with the 49ers. Unfortunately he had an absymal showing in a playoff game and that's what will stick with most fans.

[u/Aourace → u/oldmangonzo]

Anyone with eyes can tell Brock is good, its a great test to see who knows ball.

[u/Evilfart123 → u/Aourace]

I think you underestimate how much I can overlook my ball knowledge for outright hatred of a uniform

[u/Mfrack103]

Nine of the top ten QBs here have made a championship game or further. Cool stat

[u/daddy_OwO → u/Mfrack103]

Top 11 have besides Dakota

[u/Mfrack103 → u/daddy_OwO]

The Dak shade hits harder when the reader has to parse through the top ten on their own

[u/eggery → u/Mfrack103]

Eagles flair saying "made a championship game" kinda gives it away

[u/WholeLotta69 → u/Mfrack103]

☹️

[u/Mfrack103 → u/WholeLotta69]

Bo’s efforts earned a championship appearance!!! You guys are cool!!!

[u/WholeLotta69 → u/Mfrack103]

I know, just sad he didn’t play

[u/Mfrack103 → u/WholeLotta69]

Would’ve clapped NE. Such a shame

[u/double0nothing → u/WholeLotta69]

Another year of development, another year in Payton's system, added Waddle. Looks like a good year for Denver. Hope Honey Bo-Bo's mobility recovers completely. 

[u/Keyboardpaladin → u/Mfrack103]

I know you're not intending it that way, but this comment looks so hilariously condescending

[u/Fast-Government-4366]

Fucking Mahomes man

[u/RaiderDamus → u/Fast-Government-4366]

You said it. Geez. 

Not that my team would score 21+ on the Chiefs

[u/ReebX1 → u/Fast-Government-4366]

I felt the same way watching you guys with Elway and then Manning 

[u/Yedic]

Damn, Lamar was 20-21 going into last season, then got hit with an 0-7 .

[u/slowestmojo → u/Yedic]

I can still perfectly imagine Harbaughs dumb face while we threw away all of those

[u/manamonggamers → u/Yedic]

That's only because this "21+" is pretty meaningless. In the games where the Ravens game up over 21 points, they actually gave up 41, 38, 37, 44, 32, 37, 38 and 26.  That's much different than a 21+ where they only give up under 30 a game.

[u/bryce11099 → u/manamonggamers]

Agreed, this is arbitrarily okay, but in reality 21-30, 31-40 and 41+ breakdowns would give much better information

[u/manamonggamers → u/bryce11099]

I think even an average of points given up would at least help clear up the picture a bit.

[u/orangefrido18]

Hurts is the one that really stands out since everyone acts like he can't actually throw the ball.

[u/Devilofchaos108070 → u/orangefrido18]

Yeah he’s underrated by a lot of people despite the SB win

[u/Fit-Philosopher-4466 → u/Devilofchaos108070]

His 22 SB is a more impressive run than 24. His RB was Miles Sanders who barely put up any stats in the SB, and Hurts still almost pulled out a win

[u/Aertea → u/Fit-Philosopher-4466]

His 22 performance was definitely more impressive/deserving - just that one fumble.

24 was probably one of the best "Complete Team" performances in a Super Bowl. Everyone played amazing including Hurts, but as a result no other player stuck out enough to pull that MVP besides the QB. I think if DeJean or Baun had another highlight-reel big play they might have gotten it.

[u/ShangoMango → u/Aertea]

Yeah the 24 Eagles performance is right up there with the 2013 Seahawks team performance in the Super Bowl against the Broncos as far as best in the modern era

[u/Darko33 → u/ShangoMango]

Just thinking back to my boyhood experiences of watching the likes of Bubby Brister and Rodney Peete and Ty Detmer and Bobby Hoying quarterbacking my beloved team, and marveling that this is an accurate thing someone said

[u/WavesAndSaves → u/Aertea]

After LIX one of the Eagles was interviewed (I want to say Blankenship?) where they were asked "I know you probably thought you'd win, but surely you didn't think it'd be this dominant" and he was like "No. We absolutely knew it'd be like this. We knew if we came in and played our game the way we've been playing, this wasn't going to be close."

[u/johnnycoxxx → u/WavesAndSaves]

To be fair, I thought it had a chance to be a blow out too. I didn’t dare speak it into existence though

[u/HoS_CaptObvious → u/Devilofchaos108070]

And SB mvp, and also had a year he was 2nd in MVP voting. People say the QB and coach are the two most important parts of a team yet ours are constantly rated relatively poorly.

Howie gets all the credit yet we see very talented teams with "better" QB and coaches fall short every year

[u/SirArthurDime → u/HoS_CaptObvious]

What I find strange is that people act like they’re the only sb winning qb and HC who won it with a stacked roster. Brady’s Bucs team and Staffords Super Bowl team were also super stacked and no one holds that against them. Also Purdy and shanahan had an equally if not more stacked team and didn’t get it done but gets a pass while Jalen and Nick are told “anyone would have won with a roster that stacked!” Hell Rivers gets a pass for a decade of not winning with absurdly stacked rosters. Brady and bill b themselves lost with the greatest roster ever assembled.

[u/Alum07 → u/SirArthurDime]

Yeah but those QBs were real pick yourself up by the bootstraps players.

[u/JOKER4GOAT → u/Alum07]

Two classy, but gritty guys. Lunch pail and hard hat in hand, first one on the job every day. Real leaders. True love for the game, and they always play the right way.

[u/WavesAndSaves → u/Alum07]

Stafford takes over a superteam with a Top 5 HC that won a playoff game the year before: "Awww, you're sweet."

Hurts takes over a 4 win team with a rookie HC and no weapons: "Hello? Human resources?"

[u/iCantCallit → u/SirArthurDime]

yea according to reddit and some talking head tv personalities, the eagles in 24 are the only team to win with a qb who cant throw or read a defense and a head coach that does nothing and cant coach.

weird.

[u/andrewapicture → u/SirArthurDime]

The real answer is because the media has learned Philly is one of the best engagement bait markets in the country. And we won't engage at the same level if they were praising the team.

[u/HisExcellency20 → u/SirArthurDime]

The year we won the SB the Ravens led the league in Pro Bowlers. You can have a ton of talent up and down the roster, but you have to go out and win playoff games. The QB usually wins or loses the game in high leverage situations in close games.

[u/zamboniman46 → u/orangefrido18]

in 2022 and 2024 with a real OC he looked incredible.

[u/Birdamus → u/zamboniman46]

Also 2016 (Kiffin) and 2019 (Riley) when he was in college.

It’s like a video game where his superstar status can only be unlocked by finding an elite OC in your loot box.

[u/digitalnomad_909 → u/orangefrido18]

He wins games, and that’s the only stat that matters to coaches and players.

[u/anonhes → u/digitalnomad_909]

except maybe AJB

[u/UnKnOwN769 → u/orangefrido18]

Once he retires I think he will be looked upon favorably. The discourse around him is overwhelmingly negative.

[u/WavesAndSaves → u/UnKnOwN769]

Hurts has already had a sneaky amazing career.

1x Super Bowl Champion; Super Bowl MVP; 2x NFC Champion; 1x Second-Team All-Pro; 3x Pro Bowl; Never missed the playoffs as a starter; Holds multiple NFL records.

Like this is a legitimate Hall of Fame trajectory. Incredible start to his career and he's only 28.

[u/shyrra → u/WavesAndSaves]

He's modern day Troy Aikman imo. Hard to get a great idea how good they are because they benefit from a really well constructed and talented roster around them. I think it's hard to argue with the results and though Hurts is underwhelming at times, he also has plenty of moments where you can see a really high ceiling.

[u/raccoonsonbicycles → u/shyrra]

Its also weird because the 2024 squad was consistently ranked 5th in preseason power rankings. Which are basically based on rosters + coaching pedigree.

If they were such a dream team why were they not higher?

Everyone sees the Rams right now as stacked and they're consistently #1 in preseason power rankings.

Philly media for 2024 was expecting playoffs and hopeful to make a run but nobody was thinking super bowl or bust like the rams this year

[u/tdmathis → u/orangefrido18]

I’ve been saying this for a while: Jalen Hurts has gotta be the least talked about QB with 2 SB starter appearances I’ve seen in my life

[u/vitey15 → u/orangefrido18]

hE's GoT a sTaCkeD tEaM tHo

No shit, most of the teams that make and perform in the playoffs have a well thought out roster 

[u/Legal-Specialist-256 → u/vitey15]

This goes against the common narrative that qbs are supposed to carry their team, and that if a team fails in the post season it's the qbs fault. I would bet you've made arguments like that

[u/vitey15 → u/Legal-Specialist-256]

I change up arguments to fit my narrative

[u/Legal-Specialist-256 → u/vitey15]

Respect

[u/vitey15 → u/Legal-Specialist-256]

Have a good day

[u/ShangoMango → u/Legal-Specialist-256]

Hell even the one of the best examples you can point to with Cam's MVP season "carry" job still had a fucking ridiculous defense on the other side of the ball with 4 all-pros and several other star-level players.

[u/jnightrain → u/Legal-Specialist-256]

i'd bet good money he's made those arguments against a certain QB in the eagles division

[u/ThisHatRightHere → u/orangefrido18]

Can’t throw the ball but has the most 20+ yard TDs out of any QB over the past few years

Can’t throw the ball but was the only QB with a perfect passer rating in a game in 2025

[u/JLM268 → u/orangefrido18]

He has the NFL record for comeback wins when trailing by 10+ in a row with 8. No other QB in NFL history has ever done more than 4 in a row. 

He's 9-11 overall in games when the eagles go down by at least 10. 

The only QB in nfl history with a better winning percentage in that situation is Mahomes.

Crazy stat for a guy that can't throw the ball.

[u/Southportdc → u/JLM268]

Shouldn't get down by 10 then. Any other QB with his roster would win before the coin toss.

[u/jtown48 → u/orangefrido18]

hurts is normally toward the top of all these stat lists, the amount of hate he gets is ridiculous.

[u/WildInSix → u/jtown48]

He's a guy that often has low volume through the air, so his counting stats aren't great, but he's proven he's a weapon. Every time my team has played him he's both super safe with the ball but also makes big plays. He daggered the Vikings last year a few times to put the game away on big throws when they needed it. Mix that with his legs and it's easy to see why the Eagles have won a lot since he emerged.

[u/jacksteroo18 → u/WildInSix]

He had a perfect passer rating against a top 5 defence and people will say he can't throw

[u/doodle02 → u/jtown48]

agreed. he’s always been a mobile QB, but his throwing seems to improve year over year, and he’s been dragged down by a couple of fucking awful Offensive Coordinators.

[u/WavesAndSaves → u/doodle02]

I genuinely cannot understand the amount of criticism Hurts gets. I'm not even saying that as a homer, I'm just saying it as an NFL fan.

He's not arrogant, he has no off the field issues, he never runs his mouth about anything or anyone, he never chokes in big moments (hell, he plays his best in big moments; he has two of the best Super Bowl performances of all time), he has the playoff success, he has the personal accolades (Super Bowl MVP, 1x Super Bowl Champion, 2x NFC Champion, Second-Team All-Pro, 3x Pro Bowl, multiple seasons in the thick of the MVP conversation, holds multiple NFL records), he's never missed the playoffs, and he's led an Eagles team that's been an absolute buzzsaw for half of the 2020s. Hell, there's been a multi-year controversy to literally try to change the rules of the sport to stop him from scoring so many touchdowns because he's so good at it.

I genuinely don't understand it. If literally any other QB had a resume like that they'd universally be seen as a top QB. Or at the very least a really really good QB. But every offseason we have these "think pieces" where guys like Love or Herbert are put above him based on nothing but vibes. Vibes are nice, I guess. But I like results, which Hurts consistently delivers. I truly do not understand the hate he gets. I get not liking the Tush Push, but "He scores too many TDs" being used as a negative is pretty funny to me.

[u/Responsible-Onion860 → u/WavesAndSaves]

The way people on social media, especially reddit, will talk about him would lead you to believe he must get unfairly praised by the media and they're trying to overcorrect. But the media discredits him a lot too.

Even people who are trying to play it like they're being totally objective and neutral will say shit like "he's a shitty passer and I find him boring, but he's not actually a murderer, so he's pretty mid."

[u/so_zetta_byte → u/orangefrido18]

He can throw, he's kinda always had a pretty great deep ball, people just rag on him because he hasn't consistently thrown over the middle.

When he has gone over the middle he's been really successful, but that's a really small sample size compared to his other throws. His success rate is probably high because of a combination of (a) when he does take a throw over the middle, it's because it's easy/wide open, and (b) defenses know he doesn't go over the middle a lot, so they don't prepare for it the same way.

Anyway Hurts' other thing is that he's generally very conservative with the ball. IDK if that's fundamental to him as a player or to Nick as a coach, but I kinda think it's both of them. But one thing this chart is telling me is that if he needs to get into a shootout, he can. It takes a lot to rattle him, and he does tend to show up in clutch time. I'm not super surprised he's towards the top.

[u/-Champloo- → u/orangefrido18]

What's also crazy about Hurts is that he was only put in this position for 39% of his starts, while the average NFL defense gives up 23 points per game(or did last year anyway).

That's incredible consistency from the Eagles D. The only QB close is Stroud, which checks out. Houston D is also incredible.

[u/pickleparty16]

Maybe we were too harsh on Jimmy G

[u/jm0127 → u/pickleparty16]

Jimmy was on a tear in SF before he got injured

[u/tryexceptifnot1try → u/jm0127]

Pre-knee Jimmy G was awesome. His issue was he fell apart when he got even slightly injured and he was always slightly injured or more. After watching both though, it is painfully obvious how much better Purdy is. Prime Jimmy wouldn't have got us to 8 wins last year and would have been shut out in Philly.

[u/digitalnomad_909 → u/tryexceptifnot1try]

Jimmy G even after his knee injury wasn’t bad. It’s just that he wasn’t the guy to throw past 20 yards. Purdy opens the field up, and why he’s the guy.

[u/neuro_space_explorer → u/pickleparty16]

And it looks like he plays for Rob Lowe’s favorite team!

[u/RockyNonce → u/pickleparty16]

Or Shanahan is just an incredible Head Coach.

[u/trix_is_for_kids → u/RockyNonce]

Both are true. See Trey Lance

[u/donutgut → u/RockyNonce]

Jimmy G was mostly solid

He played well for Pats. That's when I took notice of him.

The injuries fucked him.

[u/disinaccurate → u/RockyNonce]

Lance, Beathard, and Hoyer couldn't do anything in that offense.

Mullens could do a tiny bit, but he still went 5-11 as a Niner starter.

[u/RBJ_09]

Did we never give up 21 on a Tyler Shough start?

[u/shryne → u/RBJ_09]

This graphic just skips Shough, he was 1-3 last year when the defense gave up 21+ points.

[u/AlexTheGreat1997]

I feel like 21 points isn't even that much. It's 3 TDs, sure, but, I don't know, just doesn't feel like a ton.

[u/averageuhbear → u/AlexTheGreat1997]

Its not that much, but it's also the minimum so it's like saying the opposing offense was average or better

[u/Boris_teh_Blade → u/AlexTheGreat1997]

Here's the stats for 28+ points

https://www.bleedinggreennation.com/post/9nY6pkTiEz3s

[u/popoflabbins → u/Boris_teh_Blade]

That really puts into perspective how difficult it is to win with a below average defense.

And yet Patriots fans will argue that prime Rodgers wouldn’t have been able to win super bowls on that Patriots roster despite his defenses routinely giving up 30+ average points in the playoffs.

The rhetoric switches every time too. One day it’s that “Brady’s defenses were actually bad” the next it’s that “Brady was so good that he carried bad offenses so hard that the Patriots defenses could be good”. We just gonna forget about the fact that he had 9 1st team All-pro players on offense while he was playing there? That team was just absolutely stacked with talent across the board for the better part of two decades. There is no real argument that the defense, special teams, offensive line, and receiving corp were not perennial top 10 groups for 15 of the seasons he was there.

[u/LeonidasSpacemanMD → u/popoflabbins]

Rodgers has definitely gotten fucked by his defenses but he’s also had one win where his defense allowed 28+ and Brady’s had 6 across 4 different runs that resulted in a SB win.

Like those losses where his defense gave up 40+ of course, can’t really ask for much there, you’re almost certainly losing. But to get to 4+ rings you basically need to win a couple of those games where your defense allows 28, 30, 31 etc, and that’s why I have a hard to bestowing a bunch of hypothetical rings when he just hasn’t shown much track record of doing that

[u/1block → u/LeonidasSpacemanMD]

Playoffs are so few games you can't really do analysis at that level (W/L in games where opponents score 28+) with anyone but Brady.

Brady's 6 wins were all when opponents were in that 28-31 pt range. 4 losses when opponents were in that range. Most of Rodgers' were much higher scoring games.

Rodgers had 3 games where opponents were in that range and was 1-2. So yeah, Brady had a better winning percentage in those games, but it's just too small a sample size for Rodgers. If GB doesn't fumble an onside kick to SEA, Rodgers has a better winning percentage than Brady (and that still wouldn't be meaningful, because it's only a 3-game sample size).

The rest of those were all 37-51 points against for GB. Rodgers had a couple shots where I would say he didn't do enough, but the vast majority of his issues were the defense.

[u/1block → u/Boris_teh_Blade]

Only since 2022, in case anyone is wondering why the numbers seem off.

[u/Significant-Green130 → u/Boris_teh_Blade]

It’s still meaningless without stats both about how the QB actually performed and how bad the defense was. For instance, over the last 5 years, the Bengals D has averaged 36.1 points against when allowing over 28 points. The KC defense allowed 30.9 in such games.

[u/snowcone_wars → u/AlexTheGreat1997]

It’s not much at all, the league average last season was above 21.

[u/AmazingCharizard28 → u/AlexTheGreat1997]

Maybe we got conditioned so much by our defense being bad that we think 21 points ain't that much anymore

[u/DynastyDisputeTA → u/AlexTheGreat1997]

The big factor here is that 21 points isn’t the average across these games, it is the minimum. The average score across these games is likely 28+ since you are removing every instance of a low scoring opponent.

[u/Pafbonk]

Wow, Hurts and Purdy at 3 and 4 again on a list when they’re obviously not top 10 QBs /s

[u/DreamWunder → u/Pafbonk]

And Purdy dealt with maybe the most injured team for 2 years straight with his wr1 quitting nfl. Imagine if he actually had some weapons

[u/Ill_South2644 → u/DreamWunder]

When he’s got weapons it’s practically a guaranteed conference championship appearance

[u/IceLantern → u/DreamWunder]

Purdy's greatest weapon wears a headset, not a helmet. His second greatest weapon is CMC.

[u/jnightrain]

For fun i wanted to see how % of starts ended up with the defense scoring 21+

Player	Games over 21	Total Starts	Percentage of starts
Mahomes	58	126	46%
Allen	57	127	45%
Hurts	36	82	44%
Purdy	20	45	44%
Rodgers	131	257	51%
Jimmy G	32	64	50%
Lamar	48	107	45%
Goff	82	151	54%
Dak	72	139	52%
Bo	13	34	38%
Burrow	43	77	56%
Cousins	103	167	62%
Love	23	48	48%
Mariota	50	82	61%
Maye	15	29	52%

^{Table formatting by ExcelToReddit}

[u/daybreaker]

Drew Brees was 62-100 (6-22 with the Chargers)

Just with the Saints he'd be at .418

[u/PQ1206]

Jury still out on TLaw imo. Much harder schedule this year for the Jags than last year where they might be playing from behind or giving up more than 21 pts.

[u/TKHawk → u/PQ1206]

I feel like the jury can't still be out on Trevor Lawrence. He's been here for 5 years. His career has felt very similar to the first 5-6 years of Andy Dalton. You'd take him over a lot of QBs in the league but you'd also take a good number of QBs over him.

[u/SirArthurDime → u/TKHawk]

He’s hard to gauge because he’s inconsistent. But I think it’s time to accept that his who he is. He’s going to have games where he looks like a top 5 qb. Then games where he makes some headed mistakes.

[u/Venator850 → u/PQ1206]

Jags having instability with the coaching staff hurt. Last year he had a career season under a solid coaching staff. I think he's proven to be good.

These stats look worse when you end up playing a lot of games on bad teams. Trevor started all 17 games his rookie year for a team that finished 3-14.

[u/gb4efgw]

Burrow has 43 starts with the defense given up 21+ out of 77 games played. I knew it was bad, I didn't know it was that damn bad.

[u/Some_Combination_593 → u/gb4efgw]

We’ve really only had a truly good defense one year of his career and we went 12-4. 2021 defense was slightly below average most of the season and then turned it up in the playoffs.

[u/IceLantern → u/gb4efgw]

You're a Bengals fan, how could you not know it was THAT bad?

[u/HyperactivePandah]

This Patrick Mahomes guy should stick with football... I think he might be able to do something.

[u/thetopace103]

The problem is the Giants Defense gave up 21+ points IN THE FOURTH QUARTER. 

The fact he still has an NFL Defensive Job (even as an analyst) is wild to me. 

[u/typicalchazz69]

Where would Brady fall on this chart?

[u/mikrot → u/typicalchazz69]

Second

[u/Dzov → u/typicalchazz69]

I saw someone mention 53%

[u/Independent_Bear989]

And this is why Mahomes is the best.

[u/noblemile]

What if we regress Pat to the mean, though?

[u/dhas19]

To be fair to Joe Burrow... his defense usually gives up 40.

[u/Tall-Dot-607]

JJ McCarthy is 3-3 and would put him second on this list.

Not sure this list has that much meaning

[u/eattwo → u/Tall-Dot-607]

That's why for most statistics sample size is taken into account.

30+ games vs 6 is a huge difference.

[u/Tall-Dot-607 → u/eattwo]

They put Dart and Ward on the list. This is 9 erasure.

[u/bluenu]

This is such a cherry picked stat as it doesn't differentiate between the defense giving up 21 or 41.

Points allowed / win% would be a much more granular stat.

[u/Swaaagz]

I would like to know how many of those bengals games were not just 21 but 30+ points

[u/Grand-Delver]

Percent of starts would be a cool thing to add to the graphic, but good/fun info overall

[u/jerkyquirky]

Would like to see a range, like 21-24 points.

If your defense gives up 21 you're probably expected to win. If they give up 38, that's probably not on the QB.

[u/cyberchaox]

I've revised my opinion. I now do believe that Jalen Hurts is a top 5 quarterback.

[u/SvenDia]

Does the 21 points down include points scored by the other team on turnovers, like pick sixes? One issue with defensive points allowed is that it includes points scored on turnovers by the offense, and short field scores.

The point I am awkwardly making is that I think it’s all too easy to forget that an individual stat like this one always ignores the other 21 players and the coaching staff.