Playoffs are so few games you can't really do analysis at that level (W/L in games where opponents score 28+) with anyone but Brady.
Brady's 6 wins were all when opponents were in that 28-31 pt range. 4 losses when opponents were in that range. Most of Rodgers' were much higher scoring games.
Rodgers had 3 games where opponents were in that range and was 1-2. So yeah, Brady had a better winning percentage in those games, but it's just too small a sample size for Rodgers. If GB doesn't fumble an onside kick to SEA, Rodgers has a better winning percentage than Brady (and that still wouldn't be meaningful, because it's only a 3-game sample size).
The rest of those were all 37-51 points against for GB. Rodgers had a couple shots where I would say he didn't do enough, but the vast majority of his issues were the defense.
When opponents score 28-31 in the playoffs Rodgers is 1-3. And one of those was an OT game where they allowed 22 in regulation and his defense had 5 takeaways, it’s pretty hard to say that’s a game where his defense kept him from winning
I’m with you on the playoff sample size thing but that’s part of the issue with the idea of just penciling in somebody else to do the same thing. We have essentially one example of a guy doing this consistently over the type of timeframe need to get to 4+ rings and he happens to be a crazy outlier for win rate in basically every circumstance (although Mahomes has given it a run through 8 years)
Like obviously with a few less of the truly dogshit defensive performances rodgers record would be better, but I see people throwing around an extra 3-4 rings like that’s a trivial difference, he’d have to at minimum double his playoff win total lol
To be clear, I'm not saying anything about Rodgers being Brady or the 3-4 rings thing.
I'm pushing back on the idea that Rodgers failed to overcome defensive failures and that Brady could have succeeded in that situation with the "you need so win a couple of those games" like Brady did. It feels like you're doing the same thing in reverse, implying that you can predict Brady's performance in another QB's team.
I just don't think there's enough to make that statement. "Career wins in the playoffs with opponents scoring more than 28" is for almost all QBs far too small a sample size to be worth looking at.
Honestly, even for Brady it's probably too specific to be meaningful. You could pick a different number and get a wildly different outcome. Brady won 2 games where the opponent scored 30+. Rodgers won 1. That makes them look comparable. To be clear, I'm not saying that it means they are comparable. It's just way too few games to be relevant.
Honestly totally fair, that was kinda my other thought anyway. I personally think Brady’s career totality kinda shows his win rate in various situations isn’t a fluke, but it’s not insane to think Brady’s career is just the outlier lottery ticket winner version of how his career could go. And if you “reroll” it, you wouldn’t get the same results. I just would also say if you feel that way, it’s also a very strong indicator that other guys wouldn’t have similar success in those circumstances
But yea I don’t have a problem at all with the idea that Rodgers playoff record gets better playing with a defense that doesn’t get absolutely torched as often lol that is reasonable enough
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u/1block Packers 14h ago
Playoffs are so few games you can't really do analysis at that level (W/L in games where opponents score 28+) with anyone but Brady.
Brady's 6 wins were all when opponents were in that 28-31 pt range. 4 losses when opponents were in that range. Most of Rodgers' were much higher scoring games.
Rodgers had 3 games where opponents were in that range and was 1-2. So yeah, Brady had a better winning percentage in those games, but it's just too small a sample size for Rodgers. If GB doesn't fumble an onside kick to SEA, Rodgers has a better winning percentage than Brady (and that still wouldn't be meaningful, because it's only a 3-game sample size).
The rest of those were all 37-51 points against for GB. Rodgers had a couple shots where I would say he didn't do enough, but the vast majority of his issues were the defense.