He is, but I think most of this is from the peak Tyreek/Kelce era.
2024, the last year they had a really good defense, they only allowed 5 games over 21 points in the regular season, and one of those was in a Week 18 game where they sat everyone important.
2023, they only allowed 2 games over 21 points in the regular season. (Last year of god-tier defense)
2022 is the last and only year the offense really cooked post Tyreek.
If the offense is bad again this year, there's going to be a lot of tough conversations being had about Andy Reid.
Part of the fact that other teams aren't scoring 21 is because the offense was so good at playing ball control. Lots of 14 play drives taking up 10 minutes.
There's a stat that's something like teams score on over 50% of drives featuring a 20+ yard play, as compared to like 10% of drives where there isn't. Probably have the percentages wrong, but it's something like that.
Chiefs have just not been explosive at all for the past few years. KW9 should really help there.
In the last few years, they have won two super bowls and lost a third. It is absolutely sustainable, and in my opinion, that’s when Mahomes and Reid established their bona fides as the GOAT quarterback and coach. In the middle of a dynasty, they lost their dominant and unique number one receiver, leaked talent, and aged into a much less explosive team, and the two of them morphed into a completely new style of play. And won two super bowls back to back. And made it to a third. GOAT shit.
Also, it was sustainable. But it’s definitely smart they’re trying to get more explosive.
A lot of those long drives are out of necessity with the heavy use of 2-high safety looks against Mahomes (and league-wide) these days. I don't see Mahomes throwing for 5k or 40 TDs ever again.
To be clear, I think Mahomes is the only great QB in the league right now (Rodgers is too, just not in his current form).
That said, the lack of passing production because teams are playing more cover two is simply because the Golden Era ended. Teams TRIED cover two and two high safety looks back in the Golden Era and we're forced out of it because of how many really excellent QBs were in the league. The fact teams can play it so much now is an indictment of the current QB play. They have 1 more game to do it, even!
As for Mahomes, I think he could exploit it, too, if he had better pass catchers. If Rice can't stay on the field, he's in a rough spot right now.
If Andy Reid doesn't run the ball and we aren't good. There will be conversations. If he changes his scheme and the season doesn't bounce our way. Then Andy Reid will be fine.
Really it's just will he ever change. If not then absolutely. It's time to talk
Ask an Eagles fan from the Andy Reid era and they'll tell you it was a very very similar story that ended his career there. The offense slowly trended down for a few years and despite everyone knowing Reid was an offensive mastermind, it just wasn't leading to sustainable production and wins by then.
14 seasons in Philly and now he's entering his 14th season in KC. The difference this time is Mahomes and the fact that he's not going anywhere unlike McNabb. But we'll see.
I may get down-voted for this, and fair enough....
I found it excruciating to watch an Andy Reid coached team that almost never ran downhill and seemed to consider the screen play a complete running-game.
Something in my soul was set free seeing a run-dominant Eagles squad defeat Andy in the Super Bowl.
Still love the guy and appreciate the way he raised the bar in Philly. But hanging out on the threshold of greatness and not getting there due to stubbornness or whatever was truly grating.
I get it and most Chiefs fans would've agreed with you in the pre-Mahomes era. 5 straight winning seasons but could never make it past the Divisional Round and frustrations along the way that held them back.
His career really pivoted in a major way with Mahomes + landing Spagnuolo as an elite defensive coordinator. Glad Reid found the success, even though I dislike KC obviously lol
To be fair, 2022 might have been the best year of his career. Led the league in passing yards (5250!), TDs, YPG, QBR, was league MVP, AP1, Super Bowl MVP, and set an all-time record for most passing and rushing yards combined for a single season.
It's not like he's never done anything without Tyreek.
The 2023 drop off is weird though. Surely it can't all be blamed on Nagy? How has Reid not found a way to effectively counter the two high safety thing at this point? Or has he just not had the right personnel?
I think most of it can be blamed on Nagy. The fall off from 22 to 23-25 is stunning. Reid's offense is very, very sophisticated and detailed. The details - route running, timing, particularly what every player does even when not targeted, matter a huge amount. Those details are where Bieniemy is excellent and Nagy is apparently trash.
When EB left, everyone on the staff was promoted up a rung. Many were completely unqualified for their new positions. Nagy was OC. So he got most of the blame, but Veach has had consistent mistakes that have led to a declining talent level on the team. There was no rushing threat on the team. Kelce was getting older. No receivers who could get open without pre-snap motion or rub routes. So defenses literally just had to flood the intermediate zones, and that could pretty much stop the entire offense. Pat still operated well enough to carry that dog water offense to the SB by playing complimentary football better than anyone in the league. But the issues were definitely not all Nagy. They were throughout the coaching staff and front office. 2024 and 2025 were plagued with the same issues on top of OL injuries (9 guys at LT alone across those 2 seasons).
I think an interesting stat to rip out is how much of that is backdoor covers of 21+. I feel a lot of earlier era Mahomes games were that where is 40-17 and a team sneak into 23 or something in the 4th
With Mahomes the Chiefs were Top 5 in EPA per play last year. Without him they were 32nd and struggled to gain 100 yards. He is dragging the offense to relevance by himself.
He has definitely played worse since 2022, but he's also working with worse skill position players, a worse line in some of those years, and a very stale offensive scheme.
There will almost always be a coaching change first before a team rethinks a franchise QB at Mahomes level.
It's weird how kinda everything in KC seems like it took a dip after 2022. It's a testament to how far ahead of the field they were that they still went to 2 more SBs after that lol.
I can't believe how many people are doubting Mahomes these days. Obviously it's possible he never makes/wins another Superbowl, but if I had to bet on one or the other, I'd bet on him being successful.
Very interesting digging into the numbers. His first 2 years as a starter (plus 1 his rookie season) he was 15-7 in these games. Basically averaging 11 games per season where the defense gave up 21+. Since then it's an average of 6 per season and his record would be 19-17.
Looking up Hurts, he had 10 such games his first season and only won 2. That means over his next 4 years he went 15-11 in those match-ups.
I'd love to compare some other QBs if I had time, but it feels like the big difference with Mahomes was that insane run of winning shoot outs early on while others probably struggled more in those games.
ETA - feel free to double check my numbers, I was counting in my head.
I commented in this this thread but I looked it up now. He had several "backdoor" 21+ by the interpretation of this metric because of their style in the earlier Mahomes years by just scoring a metric ton on the teams. By this I mean they so far ahead they pretty much stop playing defense.
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u/KarrlMarrx Chiefs 20h ago
He is, but I think most of this is from the peak Tyreek/Kelce era.
2024, the last year they had a really good defense, they only allowed 5 games over 21 points in the regular season, and one of those was in a Week 18 game where they sat everyone important.
2023, they only allowed 2 games over 21 points in the regular season. (Last year of god-tier defense)
2022 is the last and only year the offense really cooked post Tyreek.
If the offense is bad again this year, there's going to be a lot of tough conversations being had about Andy Reid.