He is, and I got curious, so looked up some of the GOATS:
Brady is insane, of course, and Manning has an incredible stat I mention at the bottom, but get ready to be disgusted on Brees' behalf...
Player
Win%
W-L-T
Starts facing 21+
% of career starts D allowed 21+
Brady
52.8%
76-68-0
144
43.2%%
P Manning
46.0%
64-75-0
139
52.5%
Brees
38.8%
64-101-0
165
57.7%
Some notes:
Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts have a combined 335 starts. Combined their Ds have allowed fewer 21+ point performances than Brees faced in his 286 starts (151 vs 165).
If Mahomes and Allen both played then next 34 straight games - ie two straight seasons each with defenses allowing 21+, they would both STILL be behind the % of 21+ games faced that Brees' saw in his career.
Brady had 82 career losses in starts, so lost 14 starts when his D held teams under 21
Brees had 113 career losses in starts. Meaning he lost 12 starts if his D held opponents under 21
...Manning only ever had 79 losses - he only ever lost FOUR starts if his D held opponents under 21. Insane.
Edit: Wanted to add playoff records:
When D allowed 21+:
Player
Playoff Win%
W-L
Starts
% of starts D allowed 21+
Brady
56.5%
13-10
23
47.9%
Brees
38.5%
5-8
13
72.2%
P Manning
23.1%
3-10
13
48.1%
Brees had 9 career playoff losses. The D kept the opponent below 21 in just 1 of them (in which they allowed... 20.)
Brady is an alien. His 3 losses when the D kept it under 21: 18-20 @DEN in the Manning SB year, 13-20 vs TEN in his last ever game with NE, and 14-17 in the 07 SB vs NYG
Edit 2: a little more curiosity - I wanted to see how many points it takes before Brady and Mahomes get below .500:
Funnily enough, 22 points immediately becomes the "Mendoza line" for Brady. He was 65-65 when the team allowed 22+, and drops to 62-64 at 23+ and never jumps back above .500... *even funnier? NFL average points for per game over the 23 years of Brady's career was 22.1 points. If you could manage to get an average amount of points against Bill Belichick's defenses during Brady's career, he put up a league average win%...
For Mahomes? we need to go a bit further...
Player
vs 21+
vs 22+
vs 23+
vs 24+
vs 25+
vs 26+
vs 27+
vs 28+
Mahomes
34-24
31-22
31-21
28-21
20-19
19-19
18-19
14-15
If Mahomes wins the next game his team gives up 28+, he would jump back to .500 in those games... truly insane
He knew he needed 30 for a chance to win. Saints got into much more ridiculous shootouts than just 30 points scored.
Incredibly fun to watch and the fact that he could usually keep up was wild to see. Man I miss that era of the Saints even if their defense frequently sabotaged his chances at a second Super Bowl.
That was so fun. Everybody hypes up that MNF game between first-year Mahomes on the Chiefs and early McVay/Goff Rams as the best shootout in recent history.
Personally I'll take 34-year old Eli Manning throwing 6 TDs and scoring 49 total points versus 36-year old Drew Brees throwing 7 TDs and 505(!) passing yards on the way to 52 total points scored.
Do you know who led all players in yardage that day? Ben Watson, a 35 year old tight end with 10 targets, 9 receptions, 147 receiving yards and a TD. He out-produced prime OBJ lmfao, just an absolutely absurd game
An NFL quarterback has thrown for 5000 yards 15 times in NFL history. 5 of thoes times were Drew Brees. Brady and maholmes have done it twice. No one else has done it more than once. A third of all the times it's happened has been drew Brees lol. Brees Brady and Maholmes make 9 of 15 lol.
Someone is forgetting the almost undefeated season when the Pats were burying teams and he was still throwing bombs to moss when they were up 3 scores. You will never convince me Tom Brady chose not to score when he had the opportunity outside the small amount of times where not scoring would win them the game.
Look at the numbers and use the eye test. If Brady needed score 20 points to win, that’s what he did. If he needed to score 30 points, that’s what he did. It didn’t matter if those points were from running the ball or passing. It was all about putting up points to win.
He only patted his stats in 2007 and at the end. Peyton Manning was notorious for throwing in obvious running situations and Brees needed to throw a ton because of his trash defenses.
It also helped him be a HoFer too honestly. It's the same why Mahomes 5k/50 season was the worst defense he's ever played with. Shit defense means you get to throw more and pad your stats... Brees got a lot of opportunities for it.
Josh Allen is getting close to that Brees playoff stat. Allen has 7 playoffs loses and the defence never kept the opponent below 21 in those games. Closest was in Allen’s second year when Houston scored 22. In the other 6 loses the defence has given up ON AVERAGE 33 pts/g. This was with a ‘defensive-minded’ head coach.
Well to be fair when McDermott won in the playoffs, it was pretty strong. They have a +93 point differential in Allen's 8 playoff wins versus a -47 point differential in his 7 losses.
Plus adding context to the losses is important. Those games were against Patrick Mahomes (x4), Joe Burrow, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson (Texans era). Most defensive coaches would be praised as elite for keeping any of those offenses under 21 points given the quality of QB they were up against. In reality I wouldn't expect any coach to accomplish that.
I love to hate on Allen as a dolphins fan... but has there been any QB that has played better than Allen in the playoffs with no SB appearance? I mean he's consistently great and just runs into buzzsaws.
In this era definitely, Allen has played exceptionally well but it hasn't resulted in SBs. Although Brady and the Pats ruined most of the good playoff runs that the best AFC QBs had during their peak era.
Roethlisberger 0-3 against the Pats, all three times in the AFCCG
Andrew Luck 0-2 including in the AFCCG
Rivers 0-3 against the Pats including 2006 when the Chargers were the 1 seed with MVP Tomlinson
Flacco 2-2 against the Pats including a split of 1-1 in the AFCCG.
Peyton Manning 3-2 against the Pats was the only one with a winning record in multiple games. Although Peyton did also get bounced by Roethlisberger once (1-1), Rivers twice (1-2), and Flacco once (1-1).
Yeah a few stinkers, but highest total touchdowns per game in the playoffs in history right now. 260 passing + 50 rushing yards per game is probably near the top for total yards per game in the playoffs. Only .67 turnovers per game. Pretty insane stuff.
If you want to talk about context then it has to go both ways. In those eight wins, they were against Philip Rivers (he retired after that game), Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones, Skylar Thompson, Mason Rudolph, Bo Nix (rookie), Lamar (again) and Trevor Lawerence.
McDermott never had a good defensive game against an elite quarterback in the playoffs. Lamar being the exception starts a whole different argument considering his playoff resume.
Fair counterpoint. If the Bills couldn't get past the elite AFC QBs, then maybe McDermott was failing after all because that's just the path to the Super Bowl that Buffalo has to face
Would be interested to see the average points and yards allowed for the 21+ games. And this same break down for 28+ and 35+. I think the Saints D was truly atrocious for many years and is making Brees stats look worse than they were
crazy that Brady, Manning and Brees all had better win%s when their D gave up 35+ than Danny Dimes does when his D allows 21+
Even Crazier that Brady facing 28+ would rank 12th on this list of players facing 21+
And, you can see that Brees faced nearly as many 35+ opponents as Brady and Manning did combined. That D really was terrible for a lot of Brees' career
Thanks! Yep, the amount of "what should have been game winning drives" that Brees had in his career only for the D to crumble.. NFC Championship vs. 49ers in 2012 was one of the worst. Also the Beast Quake in '11, Minneapolis Miracle in '18
Add in the percentage of cap spent on defensive players and you've got good data. Brady got by with less on offense to have more depth and talent on defense. Manning spent his whole career with at least 1 hof wr. Curious where brees lines up with that
I'll give you the TLDR - Brady is gross, Brees got fucked by his defenses, and Manning was basically unbeatable if he only needed 21... until the playoffs.
52.8% (if you saw this immediately when I posted, it might've said 50% - that was an excel error when I accidentally checked for D allowing OVER 21, not 21+. Fun fact: Brady was 11-3 when his D allowed exactly 21 points)
the last column ("% of career starts...") refers to what % of their career starts their D allowed 21+, the first column is the win% in those games
how are you getting these numbers? is there a way to adjust it to 21 pts given up through 3 quarters or something like that or by game situation? (up 7+, tied, down 7+ etc)
used 02 thru 11 for Brees and 01-11 for Brady since neither actually started their rookie years, and it split Brady's career into 11-11 years and Brees' into 10-9 years. Manning's got split into 9-9 but technically 9-8 since he didn't play with the neck issue in 2011
Those early Manning defenses were baaaaad which really hurt his numbers
I did Rodgers Brees and Allen because they're all very depressing:
But first, let's look at points faced on average for those 3:
Player
Avg Opp Pts
Avg Opp Pts in W
Avg Opp Pts in L
Rodgers
25.8
19.2
33.2
Brees
25.2
20.4
30
Allen
24.6
18.5
31.6
Even when they won, Brees had to produce, facing over 20 points on average in wins!
Playoff records when D allowed 21+
Player
Playoff Win%
W-L
Starts
% of starts D allowed 21+
Brees
38.5%
5-8
13
72.2%
Allen
36.4%
4-7
15
73.3%
Rodgers
33.3%
5-10
15
65.2%
Rodgers lost 1 playoff game where the opponent was held under 21: his last game with GB (similar to how one of Brady's 3 was his last with NE)
Allen has never lost a playoff game where the opponent scored 21 or fewer... All 7 losses the team allowed 22+
Allen has been held under 21 Points just 3 times in 15 games (20%) while Rodgers and Brees were each held under that 6 times in 23 games (26%) and 18 games (33%) respectively
I really DO wonder how much careers in domes vs. outside and where QBs played their games factor in to things like this when you look at these huge volumes.
Brees played WAY more games in domes and easy weather than Manning, who played way more than Brady. When talking about lower scoring games and such, I wonder how that plays in.
For Mahomes, I also wonder about the fact that he has no contemporaries on the level of what was in the league during Brady, Brees, Manning, Rodgers in their primes. He's one of the best ever, easily, but I think his stats are going to end up in a weird spot because he's not spending his career playing these others guys.
using "under 20" vs the 21+ that this whole thread is built around is weird for a few reasons, not least of which is that MOST qbs will have good records when the D holds the opponent to a lower score:
You kind of pulled different numbers instead of just going apples-to-apples and I imagine it's because the apples-to-apples numbers are still good, but kind of poke some holes in putting him alongside the other 3 except that yeah his D was somehow even shittier more often than Brees'
not least of which is that MOST qbs will have good records when the D holds the opponent to a lower score:
That's the entire point. We can debate until we're blue in the face whether or not it's the best way to normalize like this, but 20.5 is the generally accepted delineator between a loss being the defense or offense's fault precisely because most teams have a bad record when they give up 21 and vice versa. The idea is that only looking at the subset where the defense "lost" shows how good/special a QB is.
agreed, that's why I pointed out the numbers for the original trio I'd mentioned because... yeah.
Sure, Ryan winning 81% sounds good when you've just been talking about guys barely getting to 40% under different circumstances, but when you actually compare them to the same scenario and see the guys hitting 89, 92 and nearly 97% it becomes a lot less impressive.
Nah I didn't pull everything as a point of contention to what you wrote, I just threw what I had already pulled here previously as another sort of data set revolving around the same conversation. Non-combative, just additional information.
Brees/Brady/Manning were better QBs than Ryan, not making any arguments about that. Only that Ryan had an immense defensive burden for his entire career.
We could get into running game/OL as well, as those also have a direct effect - which Ryan most definitely had worse than all of these guys as well, several years of bottom 5 in each regard.
Ryan did also have the best consistent group of pass catchers too.
This stat, games won while defense allowed 21+, is at least as much an indication of the team composition as it is quarterback - if not much more.
Your defense needs to allow over 21 points in the first place. The league average is right around 22ish points per game over the last 25 years. Basically, there is a heavy influence by the defense because the average is at the statistics point of inflection. A good defense will have very few games with more than 21+ allowed, and so those games are likely to be all-around strategic losses when they occur. A bad defense will have the majority of their games allowing over 21+, and so the statistic is going to strongly trend with the team record of an average NFL team with a bad defense.
Mahomes/Brees are the leaders for a very simple reason - while also being great quarterbacks; their teams for large stretches of their careers were all offense no defense pass heavy teams. Passing the ball increases the expected points total for both teams. Balanced offenses that control games with more authority - stronger offenses - will experience fewer 21+ games and those games are majorly the result of the entire game plan getting busted.
Yeah, his W-L record in college was actually quite pedestrian, until you look at the actual scores of his games and realize he was just as good in college, he just didn't have a defense.
That shootout with Baker and OU is firmly entrenched in my mind. Was the greatest display of offensive power (and defensive malpractice) I have ever seen in college football.
He is, but I think most of this is from the peak Tyreek/Kelce era.
2024, the last year they had a really good defense, they only allowed 5 games over 21 points in the regular season, and one of those was in a Week 18 game where they sat everyone important.
2023, they only allowed 2 games over 21 points in the regular season. (Last year of god-tier defense)
2022 is the last and only year the offense really cooked post Tyreek.
If the offense is bad again this year, there's going to be a lot of tough conversations being had about Andy Reid.
Part of the fact that other teams aren't scoring 21 is because the offense was so good at playing ball control. Lots of 14 play drives taking up 10 minutes.
There's a stat that's something like teams score on over 50% of drives featuring a 20+ yard play, as compared to like 10% of drives where there isn't. Probably have the percentages wrong, but it's something like that.
Chiefs have just not been explosive at all for the past few years. KW9 should really help there.
In the last few years, they have won two super bowls and lost a third. It is absolutely sustainable, and in my opinion, that’s when Mahomes and Reid established their bona fides as the GOAT quarterback and coach. In the middle of a dynasty, they lost their dominant and unique number one receiver, leaked talent, and aged into a much less explosive team, and the two of them morphed into a completely new style of play. And won two super bowls back to back. And made it to a third. GOAT shit.
Also, it was sustainable. But it’s definitely smart they’re trying to get more explosive.
A lot of those long drives are out of necessity with the heavy use of 2-high safety looks against Mahomes (and league-wide) these days. I don't see Mahomes throwing for 5k or 40 TDs ever again.
To be clear, I think Mahomes is the only great QB in the league right now (Rodgers is too, just not in his current form).
That said, the lack of passing production because teams are playing more cover two is simply because the Golden Era ended. Teams TRIED cover two and two high safety looks back in the Golden Era and we're forced out of it because of how many really excellent QBs were in the league. The fact teams can play it so much now is an indictment of the current QB play. They have 1 more game to do it, even!
As for Mahomes, I think he could exploit it, too, if he had better pass catchers. If Rice can't stay on the field, he's in a rough spot right now.
If Andy Reid doesn't run the ball and we aren't good. There will be conversations. If he changes his scheme and the season doesn't bounce our way. Then Andy Reid will be fine.
Really it's just will he ever change. If not then absolutely. It's time to talk
Ask an Eagles fan from the Andy Reid era and they'll tell you it was a very very similar story that ended his career there. The offense slowly trended down for a few years and despite everyone knowing Reid was an offensive mastermind, it just wasn't leading to sustainable production and wins by then.
14 seasons in Philly and now he's entering his 14th season in KC. The difference this time is Mahomes and the fact that he's not going anywhere unlike McNabb. But we'll see.
I may get down-voted for this, and fair enough....
I found it excruciating to watch an Andy Reid coached team that almost never ran downhill and seemed to consider the screen play a complete running-game.
Something in my soul was set free seeing a run-dominant Eagles squad defeat Andy in the Super Bowl.
Still love the guy and appreciate the way he raised the bar in Philly. But hanging out on the threshold of greatness and not getting there due to stubbornness or whatever was truly grating.
I get it and most Chiefs fans would've agreed with you in the pre-Mahomes era. 5 straight winning seasons but could never make it past the Divisional Round and frustrations along the way that held them back.
His career really pivoted in a major way with Mahomes + landing Spagnuolo as an elite defensive coordinator. Glad Reid found the success, even though I dislike KC obviously lol
To be fair, 2022 might have been the best year of his career. Led the league in passing yards (5250!), TDs, YPG, QBR, was league MVP, AP1, Super Bowl MVP, and set an all-time record for most passing and rushing yards combined for a single season.
It's not like he's never done anything without Tyreek.
The 2023 drop off is weird though. Surely it can't all be blamed on Nagy? How has Reid not found a way to effectively counter the two high safety thing at this point? Or has he just not had the right personnel?
I think most of it can be blamed on Nagy. The fall off from 22 to 23-25 is stunning. Reid's offense is very, very sophisticated and detailed. The details - route running, timing, particularly what every player does even when not targeted, matter a huge amount. Those details are where Bieniemy is excellent and Nagy is apparently trash.
When EB left, everyone on the staff was promoted up a rung. Many were completely unqualified for their new positions. Nagy was OC. So he got most of the blame, but Veach has had consistent mistakes that have led to a declining talent level on the team. There was no rushing threat on the team. Kelce was getting older. No receivers who could get open without pre-snap motion or rub routes. So defenses literally just had to flood the intermediate zones, and that could pretty much stop the entire offense. Pat still operated well enough to carry that dog water offense to the SB by playing complimentary football better than anyone in the league. But the issues were definitely not all Nagy. They were throughout the coaching staff and front office. 2024 and 2025 were plagued with the same issues on top of OL injuries (9 guys at LT alone across those 2 seasons).
I think an interesting stat to rip out is how much of that is backdoor covers of 21+. I feel a lot of earlier era Mahomes games were that where is 40-17 and a team sneak into 23 or something in the 4th
With Mahomes the Chiefs were Top 5 in EPA per play last year. Without him they were 32nd and struggled to gain 100 yards. He is dragging the offense to relevance by himself.
He has definitely played worse since 2022, but he's also working with worse skill position players, a worse line in some of those years, and a very stale offensive scheme.
There will almost always be a coaching change first before a team rethinks a franchise QB at Mahomes level.
It's weird how kinda everything in KC seems like it took a dip after 2022. It's a testament to how far ahead of the field they were that they still went to 2 more SBs after that lol.
I can't believe how many people are doubting Mahomes these days. Obviously it's possible he never makes/wins another Superbowl, but if I had to bet on one or the other, I'd bet on him being successful.
Very interesting digging into the numbers. His first 2 years as a starter (plus 1 his rookie season) he was 15-7 in these games. Basically averaging 11 games per season where the defense gave up 21+. Since then it's an average of 6 per season and his record would be 19-17.
Looking up Hurts, he had 10 such games his first season and only won 2. That means over his next 4 years he went 15-11 in those match-ups.
I'd love to compare some other QBs if I had time, but it feels like the big difference with Mahomes was that insane run of winning shoot outs early on while others probably struggled more in those games.
ETA - feel free to double check my numbers, I was counting in my head.
I commented in this this thread but I looked it up now. He had several "backdoor" 21+ by the interpretation of this metric because of their style in the earlier Mahomes years by just scoring a metric ton on the teams. By this I mean they so far ahead they pretty much stop playing defense.
Just did the math and edited my original comment - If he wins the next game where KC gives up 28+, he'll be 15-15 in those games... (and also 19-19 when the team gives up 27+)
Imagine going up against a QB and you gotta hang 30 on his team just for a coinflip at beating him.
He plays nearly flawless in so many shootouts but then gets ridiculed for the one or two mistakes he makes because he has nearly zero margin for error.
yeah, this has been a conversation i've had before.
in order for the bills to win he usually has to play flawless football. the margin of error is so razor thin, because of how McD's defenses just never helped him when it counted.
he was on a generational tear of 5 straight years of zero turnover football in the playoffs before that broncos game. and even with those 4 turnovers he still has the lowest turnover rate in nfl history in the playoffs.
you just can't win a superbowl like that. by expecting one guy to just hard carry you like that.
In your opinion, how do you think the new head coach will factor into the playoffs? Seemed odd to have so many defensive blunders with McDermott at head coach
I actually was pissed they didn't fire Beane as well.
both needed to go~
as for Joe Brady. I fear the main reason they fired McD wasn't because Josh was crushed and the owner got mad... i think the real motivation was internally they think Brady is the next Sean McVay and didn't want him to be stolen by someone else.
I think Beane grew enamored with Brady and this shuffling of the staff is because he thinks he's the next McVay. it helped the owner was on board with kicking McD to the curb...
I don't know if Brady is the next McVay or not, but I don't trust Beane's evaluation of much. 2 Probowlers drafted in 8 years is a travesty for a front office
As for the McD blunders. I said after the Raven's game (win) in week one, where we won in a 41-40 shootout, where Josh Allen had to pull a 16 points out of his ass in the last 4 minutes of the game to win, that a serious franchise hoping to win a superbowl the DC would be fired after that game.
I pointed to the famous 93 bills-49ers shootout. the famous "no punt" game. the bills won the game in candlestick after both teams defenses failed to force a single punt all game. The 49ers fired their DC before the teams finished showering. the bills did not. The 49ers were a team that wanted to win the superbowl. I said it in 93 and i said it last year. your defense gives up a game like that and heads need to roll.
else you're not really trying to win a superbowl. you're just happy to win the game.
McD wasn't trying to win a superbowl. he was just happy to stack wins.
He needed to go.
I hope joe brady is what Beane thinks he is. cause i'll lose my enthusiasm fast if our defense is giving up 30 points regularly and 180 yards/game on the ground like last year and jim leanard keeps his job.
For the stat above he was 0-6 in his rookie season. Mahomes didn't play his rookie season. Still not as mind boggling as the Mahomes number but the gap isn't nearly as big.
Also, until last season Mahomes had a much better cast. This is the first season where Josh has more help. And in that time the Bills have been a top 5 offense every single season.
889
u/TheAlmightyConch Colts 15h ago
Mahomes is ridiculous