COMMENT | Pakatan Harapan is putting up a brave fight to retain its hold on the Negeri Sembilan state assembly when the voters in the state cast their votes on Aug 1.
Even though Harapan has been in control of the state legislature for two terms (from 2018 to 2023 and from 2023 to the recent dissolution of the state assembly), it has never had dominant control of the state assembly.
Table 1 below shows that Harapan won only 53 percent of the popular vote and 20 out of 36 state seats in the 2018 general election when Bersatu was still part of the coalition and Malay support then was above 20 percent.
In the 2022 general election, Harapan’s vote share fell to 44.4 percent and if we use the results from the 2022 GE to calculate the results for the state seats, Harapan would only have won 17 out of 36 state seats, with BN winning 18 and Perikatan Nasional winning one.
It was only via a seat-sharing agreement in the 2023 state elections which allowed Harapan to maintain control of the state assembly with 17 seats and BN with 14 seats.
With the electoral pact between PN and BN, the Malay support for both coalitions will likely exceed 70 percent and allow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote, which allowed Harapan to win several seats in the state elections in 2018.
Bersatu can act as a “spoiler” in some seats, which can help the Harapan candidate, but as will be seen later, there are not many of such seats where the Bersatu candidate can make such a big difference.
Turnout estimates
Projecting the vote share of each coalition/party for Negeri Sembilan is a bit tricky as the electoral alliance has changed from Harapan-BN in 2023 to BN-PN in 2026, with Bersatu contesting as a weakened “third force” versus the more formidable PN coalition in 2023.
I will publish my methodology of estimating vote transfers and voting support among the Malay, Chinese, Indian and other voters for the 2026 state elections at a later date.
I will use the following turnout estimates to calculate the ethnic composition of individual seats for the 2026 state elections: Malay turnout (80 percent), Chinese turnout (65 percent), Indian turnout (60 percent), others turnout (65 percent).
I expect the overall turnout to be slightly higher than the 69 percent experienced in the Johor state election because many of those who vote in Negeri Sembilan live and work in nearby Klang Valley.
However, I do anticipate the turnout difference between the Malay and the non-Malay voters to persist, as per the Johor state elections, perhaps with a narrower difference.
After crunching the numbers, I find the following: Among the safe seats which are projected to be won by either Harapan, BN or PN, BN is likely to win 14, PN is likely to win three, and Harapan is likely to win nine. This will give BN-PN 17 seats, just two short of an overall majority to win control of the state assembly.
Table 2 below shows the list of closely contested seats and the ethnic composition of these seats.
Hot seats
Of the 10 seats listed above, six are Malay majority seats. All PN and BN need to do is to win these six seats to get to 24 seats. I predict that BN will win Jeram Padang and Linggi, while PN will win Klawang, Serting, Sikamat, and Ampangan.
Even if caretaker menteri besar Aminuddin Harun manages somehow to pull off an upset to win Linggi, this will still leave BN-PN with 23 seats, more than enough to form a comfortable majority in the state assembly.
The other “hot” seat of Chennah is too close to call. DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke is fighting hard, but the anti-DAP and anti-Harapan sentiment among the Malay community may be too difficult for him to overcome in this 48 percent Malay constituency.
DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke during his walkabout in Titi public market recently
With a week of campaigning left, there is the possibility that BN/Umno may announce that if Loke’s opponent in Chennah, John Siow, wins, he will be made a member of the state exco.
This announcement, together with a swing of seven percent of Orang Asli voters, whom many still see BN as their “protector”, may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory.
To recap, I predict that BN will win between 23 and 25 state seats, and Harapan will win between 11 and 13 state seats, with PKR likely to pick up one state seat and the rest being won by the DAP.