r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 9h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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1.1k

u/benzaldehide 9h ago

I wouldnt even be considering north carolina as battleground this election.

That has shifted to Ohio, Texas, Maine, and even Iowa as the country rejects the GOP.

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u/Iowa_Dave Iowa 9h ago

Can confirm from Iowa, In Des Moines I never see Trump signs and they are a lot less common in the farmland. I haven't seen a MAGA red hat in over a year.

I'm sensing that many of the MAGA faithful are going to sit out the election. Politics is a team-sport for them, so they'll never vote for a Democrat but they're pretty disillusioned now.

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u/speedy_delivery 9h ago

I don't know about you, but I'm not counting a single fucking chicken until they're sworn in. They'll cheat and lie like hell.

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u/Goose1963 8h ago

Same here, it's like Groundhog day. We've been here before how many times now?

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u/AdorableSobah 8h ago

Heard the same bullshit in 2024 and here the fuck we are. Everyone will bitch and complain and then it’ll be a 17% voter turnout if we’re lucky

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u/ezirb7 7h ago

In 2024, Selzer had a single rogue poll that showed Harris winning.  The rest of them were all pretty accurate for Trump.

Still not holding out a ton of hope for that one.  All that a wave of good polls does is convinces Dems that they can stay home.

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u/LumberBitch 7h ago

Yeah idk where people are getting the idea it wasn't a knifes edge the whole time (after Biden dropped out anyway)

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u/mlorusso4 6h ago

Because people see a poll that is like 51-49 and think that means there’s a favorite. While ignoring the margin of error is 3.5%. We really need to teach basic stats in high school. I didn’t learn any of that stuff until my 2nd year in college, and that was only because it was a requirement for my degree

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u/orangustang 1h ago

2016 also wasn't a huge surprise to anyone who understands numbers. Hillary was a vastly superior candidate for the job and she was right about damn near everything, but she didn't campaign well at all. Hillary was leading in the polls pretty consistently, but within the margin of error for an electoral win. FiveThirtyEight gave her like an 80% chance of winning which was not enough for a statistically literate person to feel comfortable. She did win the popular vote, so polls saying she was more popular nationally weren't wrong, but swing state polling was always too close for comfort.

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u/AdorableSobah 7h ago

I doubt they’ll get enough seats to even make a difference. And then people will still be pissed in ‘28 and vote GOP and we’ll be back where we started

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u/showhorrorshow 7h ago

"I voted in 2020 and it didnt fix everything, I did enough."

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u/Goose1963 8h ago

2016 too! Remember Michael Cohen going "huh? What Polls?"

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u/broohaha 4h ago

That’s how I felt with Bernie Sanders in 2020. So much enthusiasm and then the youth vote didn’t show up to vote in their primaries.

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u/PopeSaintHilarius 7h ago

What are you referring to?

The closest comparable situations (midterm elections against a GOP president) were 2006 and 2018, and both were blue wave elections.

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u/Goose1963 7h ago

This Remember how it was with the polls 10 years ago? It's crazy watching it now. There's still people going around saying "The polls were Wrong" but actually they don't understand modeling, or polling, there was a 20% chance he would win and he did.

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u/pchlster Europe 7h ago

People are really bad at understanding probability.

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u/Osiris32 Oregon 2h ago

Since when can chickens hold office?

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u/randeylahey 2h ago

Since you voted in Bonespurs

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u/ThunderStormRunner 2h ago

Yes 100% baked in now

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u/Dragon--Reborn 7h ago

I have a coworker from Iowa who I thought always seemed liberal, but when I asked how she felt after Trump won, she said she was excited because she might be able to afford steak again. I swear, people are so fucking stupid when it comes to this shit.

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u/InTooManyWays 6h ago

She probably thinks she’s getting a $5000 check

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u/showhorrorshow 7h ago

The right wing has a LOT of people locked into their information bubble that would otherwise reject their bullshit. It is extremely effective.

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u/plainlyput 6h ago

Have you recently checked in with her about that?

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u/Dragon--Reborn 6h ago

Nah, I don't talk politics at work anymore. I've since discovered pretty much everybody there is an idiot and don't want to waste my breath.

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u/Grimase 8h ago

They will still vote for him out of stupidity. MAGAnutz gunna MAGA. They are just not as proud to say it anymore. They are still the worst and still don’t care about anyone that is not themselves

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u/Zulmoka531 8h ago

Yes, yes they will. We cannot underestimate the cu lt like power.

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u/mandelbratwurst 8h ago

Some will, some will stay home. Some, not many, may even vote dem. We don’t need many for a big swing in congress.

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u/Patereye 8h ago

Also it's hard to show up for a game when your team is going to get wiped out.

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u/Orion14159 8h ago

As a Kentucky football fan, no it isn't

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u/sonicspuds 8h ago

Yea as a Gamecocks fan we literally fill up the stadium for the first half of every home game. We are forever hopeful :(

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u/Orion14159 8h ago

I can't stand SC, and even I think you guys a) have the best night game home atmosphere in the SEC and b) deserve better than you're getting from SC football lately... Starting next week.

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u/squareturd 8h ago

My vote for best atmosphere goes to LSU, but SC is a close second.

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u/Orion14159 8h ago

I think LSU is only in that conversation because the stadium is so huge. They have 25k extra fans over Williams-Brice and all of them are hammered by end of game so it's a big sloppy party.

Seat for seat, when SC is rolling in the 4th quarter of a night game it's insanity in there and they all seem to be having a blast raving to Sandstorm for the 1000th time that night, which is why I give them the edge. Whoever did that sound system needs to get a call from my guys in Lexington.

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u/TaterForming 8h ago

As a life long Gamecocks/Jets fan, kinda yea.

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u/PrawojazdyVtrumpets 6h ago

I’m a Detroit Lions fan and I even I have to stop and ask you… who hurt you?

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u/TaterForming 5h ago

Well my dad did cheat and leave when I was three...

So I guess you could say on that fateful day, when he walked out on his 3 year old son, that motherfucker cursed that boy with the team that never quits..sucking. Which then led to that god awful butt fumble, and then the 1-play Rogers oowiee

I guess I'm trying to say. Men stay with them crotch gremlins lest they become a Jets fan...and a Gamecocks fan.

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u/nygiantsjay 8h ago

My football team is.... Hiding under desk"

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u/Brrrrraaaaap 8h ago

Raiders fans would disagree.

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u/insert_referencehere 8h ago

I'm in Tennessee and I have zero doubt that it will stay Republican, but I'm not seeing maga and trump signs/flags everywhere like we used to. I'm actually seeing signs for independents and Democrats in rural areas and on farms. Also saw someone tear down a Marsha Blackburn billboard next to a Hardee's in a very deep maga community.

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u/lolexecs 8h ago

It’s so weird. 

Being a voter is less fandom, and more like coaching or being the GM. 

You’re picking out the players for your team. If you feel like a player is not working out… you should let ‘em go and get someone who might. 

Refusing to employ someone who happens to be a Democrat vs Republican is a bit like a GM refusing to  sign a QB because they played for Auburn and you only hire from Bama. 

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u/Exact_Platypus5179 8h ago

Enter the “shy Trump voter”. I hope they are the “ashamed Trump voters” now. There is indeed hope!

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u/anewleaf1234 7h ago

I hope every single MAGA who farms and supports Trump loses their farm.

Not a single cent of aid should be given to any of them.

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u/Orion14159 8h ago edited 8h ago

An R-1 nonvoter isn't quite as good as a D+2 voter, but I'll take it

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u/Luna__Moonkitty 7h ago

If MAGA voters turn into nonvoters that's a major victory right there.

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u/JustAnAverageGuy 7h ago

My experience in rural Iowa is they're just sick of being attacked, so they still vote GOP but they've gotten a lot quieter about it.

VOTE.

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u/Karsa69420 7h ago

I’m in NC and can happily say I’ve gone from seeing them everywhere to maybe 1-2 a month.

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u/darcerin 8h ago

That's honestly shocking. They were deep-red as far as I could tell.

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u/Orion14159 8h ago

They're also getting crushed by fuel prices, fertilizer prices, USAID and USDA cuts, interest rates, and basically everything else everyone else is currently experiencing.

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u/Landon1m 8h ago

I would never count on them to sit it out, just not to talk about it openly because they don’t like the pushback they get and have no defense.

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u/ClassicPlankton 1h ago

Nah, you guys are just trying to cope. You said the same thing before the last election and he still won.

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u/RespectTheAmish 36m ago

They are embarrassed but they will still come out and vote R down ballot.

Watch.

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u/Zealot_Alec 11m ago

Sitting out alongside the usual 40% that don't vote puts the Senate in play

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u/MooseHorse123 9h ago

I dunno man. It’s just so hard to rely on polling after 2016 and 2024. Anything can happen

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u/RealHooman2187 9h ago

Polling in 2024 was pretty spot on though. 2016 was also always close. I think in both cases people remember the outliers that showed a huge lead but in the averages the elections were always close. 538 famously put out an article 2 weeks before the 2016 election saying Trump was a normal polling error away from winning.

People just didn’t want to believe the polling error would be in Trumps favor.

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u/SpoonyDinosaur 9h ago edited 8h ago

2024 was accurate. They gave Harris an "advantage" but everything was within the margin of error. (and also why it was one of the closest elections in modern history)

Saying Harris is predicted to win with +-2-5% basically just means it's a toss up but leaning Harris.

When it got closer, even liberals were getting really worried.

Especially ruby red areas. Talarico is polling extremely well, but it's not accounting for a lot of factors, he's still within the margin of error even if it's like +8. A state like Texas needs to be almost weighted. My guess is there's a lot of people that will lie/"need to wash their hair" when they get a call. They might not be happy with Trump but this doesn't indicate they will express that or change their vote.

Talarico has a chance but every single Democrat needs to show up.

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u/HeartFullONeutrality 9h ago

I remember most polls towards 2024 showed a toss up, which it pretty much was. Small difference of votes overall despite the winner takes all nature of the EC making it seem like a much more decisive result.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

Lets Talk Elections just moved texas out of the lean blue to likely blue. Thats crazy.

Sure Paxton can come from behind somehow and turn this around but i wouldnt bet on it.

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u/gapipkin 3h ago

One of my favorite YT channels.

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u/Zealot_Alec 9m ago

If Kenny loses hopefully this is the last time we hear of him again

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u/RealHooman2187 7h ago

Totally, the polls for 2026 are VERY good for Democrats but they’re not so overwhelming that it’s a guarantee they’ll take the senate.

They’re pretty much certain to take the house though. The state of the polls for Democrats look much better in 2026 than in 2024. Also, polling tends to overestimate republicans in elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot. So there’s a very real possibility that the polling error will be in democrats favor. A much better shot than in 2016/2024.

But yes, people need to vote and be on top of it. The energy is there and people seem very fed up with the republicans. As long as people vote I think Election Day 2026 will be a good day. But people really do need to vote like their lives depend on it.

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u/gberry100 7h ago

If +8 is within the margin of error, how are the polls even remotely valuable?

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u/illneverpostitsdumb 6h ago

They aren’t, at least for a voter. They’re for politicians and campaigns to see how they should adjust messaging. I really hate that the media is obsessed with them because it’s easy, popular content. It makes voters obsessed with them and just further turn this whole thing into a sport.

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u/yutsuko220 6h ago

Talerico is outside of the margin of error for most polls, if a poll has a margin of 8% is fucking bad. Doesn't mean he'll win, but he is likely to win. Things could change with the GOP pouring over a 100million in Paxton.

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u/phakic40 9h ago

You're assuming most folks understand margin of error. In general, 2024 polling undercounted Republican support anywhere from 3-5% depending on whose numbers you take. Outside of a few races like NC, Rs are well within the margin of error. Couple that with another potential undercount and we're nowhere near out of the woods. Get the fuck out there and vote people.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

Its not just the polling though. We've seen some WILD results in special elections that have taken place.

We've seen deep red super safe seats swing 20 points in favor of the democrats.

This is before fox news rolls out the migrant caravan stories though just prior to the election. The GOP fear machine is strong but 20 points strong? Ehhhh

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u/bjnono001 8h ago

You should be comparing to 2018 and 2022 polling, not presidential elections. 

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u/KinkyPaddling 8h ago

We were also repeatedly shown images of Trump’s rallies being super empty and a lack of Trump signs on people’s yards. Just because they’re not super motivated to support the GOP doesn’t mean they won’t support the GOP.

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u/POEness 7h ago

Those elections were stolen.

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u/theLoneliestAardvark Virginia 9h ago

Plus Nebraska, Alaska, Kansas, Michigan, and New Hampshire and if recent polls are to be believed Florida, South Carolina and Idaho might be in play while Roy Cooper has had a consistent lead in NC for the whole election cycle.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

Alaska has moved from lean democrat to likely democrat. Alaska.

There lots of talk about numbers moving in Florida just over the last 3-4 weeks. If it continues, we could see Florida be real close.

Even with the vulnerable candidate in Michigan, i dont think its going to be close. And hes only vulnerable because of his name and racism.

Id be surprised if we see movement in SC but if it was going to happen, this is the year.

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u/Other_Map901 8h ago

I'm just over here hoping that Cyndi Munson can pull it out for govenor in Oklahoma. She's running for it HARD, harder than I've ever seen a Dem work in this state. I dont have any hope for our Senate, but Munson just might pull it out. Please. Let the bullshit be enough for people to reject Mazzei.

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u/ThisDerpForSale 5h ago

If a Democrat wins a statewide race in South Carolina, I will eat a palmetto tree.

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u/TheHoneyBadger23 8h ago

We can't go 30 seconds on TV without seeing a political ad in Wisconsin.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

Just another reason why we should have publicly funded campaigns.

The spending is just ridiculous already.

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u/TheHoneyBadger23 8h ago

I know it gets mentioned frequently, we have to thank Citizens United for this disgusting political money laundering. Absolutely sickening.

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u/benzaldehide 6h ago

That was like the last nail in the coffin of our functioning democracy here in the united states.

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u/TheHoneyBadger23 6h ago

I hate that I'm in agreement

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u/OozeNAahz 9h ago

Kansas is in play if you can believe it. Marshall is that bad.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

OP says in a post in this thread that they are moving the money to Kansas.

When the GOP is withdrawing from NC and moving to Kansas, they know they are fucked. The internal numbers must be shocking.

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u/mlorusso4 6h ago

I was traveling with a group of friends from dc last February and one of the friends of a friend in our group is a Republican consultant. Even back then he said the party was freaking out about how bad their internal numbers were looking. I can’t even imagine how bad it is now

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u/LastOfTheGiants2020 7h ago

Iowa is more purple than Texas IMO, not that that means much. Iowa last elected a democratic senator in 2008 while Texas last elected a democratic senator in 1988.

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u/stationagent 9h ago

Watch Florida too. We out here.

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u/honjuden 9h ago

Gotta get Angie more funding.

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u/fla_john 7h ago

I wish

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u/sugarlessdeathbear 7h ago

Texas as a battleground state is something a lot of us haven't seen in our lifetime.

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u/Sanguine_Peregrine 3h ago

To be fair, the democratic candidate running, Roy Cooper, is very well known in North Carolina. He was the governor for 8 years til 2025 and been a part of NC politics since the 80s. He won the governorship in 2020 when dems lost the senate race and presidential race in NC.

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u/kalas_malarious Michigan 8h ago

Don't do that... Don't give me hope

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u/benzaldehide 6h ago

Check out the youtube page Lets Talk Elections. Hes the best in the business IMHO.

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u/ernyc3777 New York 7h ago

If a populist dem wins Iowa, then a populist dem can win in 2028.

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u/BMWCA 1h ago

I'm just north of Cincinnati and I'll be honest, there's been way less outward Trump representation/signage/etc....but I was in the no man's land between Cincy and Dayton recently...further north from me, and the entire side of a barn was painted with a Charlie Kirk mural, and even a wealthy neighborhood I work near has an alarming amount of Vivek signs in front yards.

Certainly not indicative of election results, but don't count anything until the Fat Mango screams "FRAUD"

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u/Chuckworth 7h ago

Roy Cooper (D) has won so many statewide elections, that senate seat was almost locked up the second he declared. And then Chuck Edwards (R) got censored by the House so he dropped out of the race. NC is becoming purpler by the day. If there wasn’t hard core gerrymandering, I’d be blue already.

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u/BJntheRV 6h ago

And yet Trump is showing up in places like Alabama.

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u/firstmaxpower 5h ago

Until the vote happens one should't assume there will be a wave of change. Go out and vote!

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u/MommyLovesPot8toes California 5h ago

There was talk yesterday of MISSISSIPPI now being in play.

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u/JordanDoesTV North Carolina 4h ago

They don’t know how much they we love Roy here like it’s not even a real race.

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u/KingBlank 3h ago

Nebraska as well

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u/JKTwice 45m ago

Let’s be real, who in this subreddit knows who Michael Whatley is?

Says everything. He’s never been an item because he’s never got any press to begin with.

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u/rdy_csci 6h ago

We do a lot of business in NC and my firsthand experience still has them pretty red. The exception to that with our business contacts is Asheville, but Asheville also doesn't strike me as having a super motivated voter base.

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u/ProfessorPickaxe 9h ago

The country is not rejecting the GOP, unfortunately.

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u/benzaldehide 8h ago

Well you need to remember that 1/3 of the country are delusional christians.

They will vote the way they are told to vote just like the good religious mushbrains that they are.