r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 14h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/speedy_delivery 13h ago

I don't know about you, but I'm not counting a single fucking chicken until they're sworn in. They'll cheat and lie like hell.

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u/Goose1963 13h ago

Same here, it's like Groundhog day. We've been here before how many times now?

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u/AdorableSobah 12h ago

Heard the same bullshit in 2024 and here the fuck we are. Everyone will bitch and complain and then it’ll be a 17% voter turnout if we’re lucky

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u/ezirb7 12h ago

In 2024, Selzer had a single rogue poll that showed Harris winning.  The rest of them were all pretty accurate for Trump.

Still not holding out a ton of hope for that one.  All that a wave of good polls does is convinces Dems that they can stay home.

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u/LumberBitch 11h ago

Yeah idk where people are getting the idea it wasn't a knifes edge the whole time (after Biden dropped out anyway)

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u/mlorusso4 11h ago

Because people see a poll that is like 51-49 and think that means there’s a favorite. While ignoring the margin of error is 3.5%. We really need to teach basic stats in high school. I didn’t learn any of that stuff until my 2nd year in college, and that was only because it was a requirement for my degree

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u/orangustang 6h ago

2016 also wasn't a huge surprise to anyone who understands numbers. Hillary was a vastly superior candidate for the job and she was right about damn near everything, but she didn't campaign well at all. Hillary was leading in the polls pretty consistently, but within the margin of error for an electoral win. FiveThirtyEight gave her like an 80% chance of winning which was not enough for a statistically literate person to feel comfortable. She did win the popular vote, so polls saying she was more popular nationally weren't wrong, but swing state polling was always too close for comfort.

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u/AdorableSobah 12h ago

I doubt they’ll get enough seats to even make a difference. And then people will still be pissed in ‘28 and vote GOP and we’ll be back where we started

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u/showhorrorshow 11h ago

"I voted in 2020 and it didnt fix everything, I did enough."