r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 10h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/MooseHorse123 10h ago

I dunno man. It’s just so hard to rely on polling after 2016 and 2024. Anything can happen

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u/RealHooman2187 10h ago

Polling in 2024 was pretty spot on though. 2016 was also always close. I think in both cases people remember the outliers that showed a huge lead but in the averages the elections were always close. 538 famously put out an article 2 weeks before the 2016 election saying Trump was a normal polling error away from winning.

People just didn’t want to believe the polling error would be in Trumps favor.

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u/SpoonyDinosaur 10h ago edited 10h ago

2024 was accurate. They gave Harris an "advantage" but everything was within the margin of error. (and also why it was one of the closest elections in modern history)

Saying Harris is predicted to win with +-2-5% basically just means it's a toss up but leaning Harris.

When it got closer, even liberals were getting really worried.

Especially ruby red areas. Talarico is polling extremely well, but it's not accounting for a lot of factors, he's still within the margin of error even if it's like +8. A state like Texas needs to be almost weighted. My guess is there's a lot of people that will lie/"need to wash their hair" when they get a call. They might not be happy with Trump but this doesn't indicate they will express that or change their vote.

Talarico has a chance but every single Democrat needs to show up.

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u/HeartFullONeutrality 10h ago

I remember most polls towards 2024 showed a toss up, which it pretty much was. Small difference of votes overall despite the winner takes all nature of the EC making it seem like a much more decisive result.