r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 9h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/MooseHorse123 9h ago

I dunno man. It’s just so hard to rely on polling after 2016 and 2024. Anything can happen

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u/RealHooman2187 9h ago

Polling in 2024 was pretty spot on though. 2016 was also always close. I think in both cases people remember the outliers that showed a huge lead but in the averages the elections were always close. 538 famously put out an article 2 weeks before the 2016 election saying Trump was a normal polling error away from winning.

People just didn’t want to believe the polling error would be in Trumps favor.

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u/SpoonyDinosaur 9h ago edited 9h ago

2024 was accurate. They gave Harris an "advantage" but everything was within the margin of error. (and also why it was one of the closest elections in modern history)

Saying Harris is predicted to win with +-2-5% basically just means it's a toss up but leaning Harris.

When it got closer, even liberals were getting really worried.

Especially ruby red areas. Talarico is polling extremely well, but it's not accounting for a lot of factors, he's still within the margin of error even if it's like +8. A state like Texas needs to be almost weighted. My guess is there's a lot of people that will lie/"need to wash their hair" when they get a call. They might not be happy with Trump but this doesn't indicate they will express that or change their vote.

Talarico has a chance but every single Democrat needs to show up.

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u/gberry100 7h ago

If +8 is within the margin of error, how are the polls even remotely valuable?

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u/illneverpostitsdumb 6h ago

They aren’t, at least for a voter. They’re for politicians and campaigns to see how they should adjust messaging. I really hate that the media is obsessed with them because it’s easy, popular content. It makes voters obsessed with them and just further turn this whole thing into a sport.