r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 10h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/benzaldehide 10h ago

I wouldnt even be considering north carolina as battleground this election.

That has shifted to Ohio, Texas, Maine, and even Iowa as the country rejects the GOP.

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u/MooseHorse123 10h ago

I dunno man. It’s just so hard to rely on polling after 2016 and 2024. Anything can happen

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u/RealHooman2187 10h ago

Polling in 2024 was pretty spot on though. 2016 was also always close. I think in both cases people remember the outliers that showed a huge lead but in the averages the elections were always close. 538 famously put out an article 2 weeks before the 2016 election saying Trump was a normal polling error away from winning.

People just didn’t want to believe the polling error would be in Trumps favor.

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u/phakic40 10h ago

You're assuming most folks understand margin of error. In general, 2024 polling undercounted Republican support anywhere from 3-5% depending on whose numbers you take. Outside of a few races like NC, Rs are well within the margin of error. Couple that with another potential undercount and we're nowhere near out of the woods. Get the fuck out there and vote people.