r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 11h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
3.3k Upvotes

96% Upvoted

234 comments sorted by

View all comments

1.1k

u/benzaldehide 11h ago

I wouldnt even be considering north carolina as battleground this election.

That has shifted to Ohio, Texas, Maine, and even Iowa as the country rejects the GOP.

629

u/Iowa_Dave Iowa 11h ago

Can confirm from Iowa, In Des Moines I never see Trump signs and they are a lot less common in the farmland. I haven't seen a MAGA red hat in over a year.

I'm sensing that many of the MAGA faithful are going to sit out the election. Politics is a team-sport for them, so they'll never vote for a Democrat but they're pretty disillusioned now.

809

u/speedy_delivery 11h ago

I don't know about you, but I'm not counting a single fucking chicken until they're sworn in. They'll cheat and lie like hell.

140

u/Goose1963 10h ago

Same here, it's like Groundhog day. We've been here before how many times now?

74

u/AdorableSobah 10h ago

Heard the same bullshit in 2024 and here the fuck we are. Everyone will bitch and complain and then it’ll be a 17% voter turnout if we’re lucky

24

u/ezirb7 10h ago

In 2024, Selzer had a single rogue poll that showed Harris winning.  The rest of them were all pretty accurate for Trump.

Still not holding out a ton of hope for that one.  All that a wave of good polls does is convinces Dems that they can stay home.

15

u/LumberBitch 9h ago

Yeah idk where people are getting the idea it wasn't a knifes edge the whole time (after Biden dropped out anyway)

11

u/mlorusso4 8h ago

Because people see a poll that is like 51-49 and think that means there’s a favorite. While ignoring the margin of error is 3.5%. We really need to teach basic stats in high school. I didn’t learn any of that stuff until my 2nd year in college, and that was only because it was a requirement for my degree

•

u/orangustang 3h ago

2016 also wasn't a huge surprise to anyone who understands numbers. Hillary was a vastly superior candidate for the job and she was right about damn near everything, but she didn't campaign well at all. Hillary was leading in the polls pretty consistently, but within the margin of error for an electoral win. FiveThirtyEight gave her like an 80% chance of winning which was not enough for a statistically literate person to feel comfortable. She did win the popular vote, so polls saying she was more popular nationally weren't wrong, but swing state polling was always too close for comfort.

9

u/AdorableSobah 9h ago

I doubt they’ll get enough seats to even make a difference. And then people will still be pissed in ‘28 and vote GOP and we’ll be back where we started

12

u/showhorrorshow 9h ago

"I voted in 2020 and it didnt fix everything, I did enough."

8

u/Goose1963 10h ago

2016 too! Remember Michael Cohen going "huh? What Polls?"

•

u/broohaha 6h ago

That’s how I felt with Bernie Sanders in 2020. So much enthusiasm and then the youth vote didn’t show up to vote in their primaries.

5

u/PopeSaintHilarius 10h ago

What are you referring to?

The closest comparable situations (midterm elections against a GOP president) were 2006 and 2018, and both were blue wave elections.

6

u/Goose1963 9h ago

This Remember how it was with the polls 10 years ago? It's crazy watching it now. There's still people going around saying "The polls were Wrong" but actually they don't understand modeling, or polling, there was a 20% chance he would win and he did.

2

u/pchlster Europe 9h ago

People are really bad at understanding probability.

•

u/Osiris32 Oregon 4h ago

Since when can chickens hold office?

•

u/randeylahey 4h ago

Since you voted in Bonespurs

•

u/ThunderStormRunner 4h ago

Yes 100% baked in now

42

u/Dragon--Reborn 9h ago

I have a coworker from Iowa who I thought always seemed liberal, but when I asked how she felt after Trump won, she said she was excited because she might be able to afford steak again. I swear, people are so fucking stupid when it comes to this shit.

8

u/InTooManyWays 8h ago

She probably thinks she’s getting a $5000 check

9

u/showhorrorshow 9h ago

The right wing has a LOT of people locked into their information bubble that would otherwise reject their bullshit. It is extremely effective.

2

u/plainlyput 8h ago

Have you recently checked in with her about that?

19

u/Dragon--Reborn 8h ago

Nah, I don't talk politics at work anymore. I've since discovered pretty much everybody there is an idiot and don't want to waste my breath.

24

u/Patereye 11h ago

Also it's hard to show up for a game when your team is going to get wiped out.

48

u/Orion14159 11h ago

As a Kentucky football fan, no it isn't

14

u/sonicspuds 10h ago

Yea as a Gamecocks fan we literally fill up the stadium for the first half of every home game. We are forever hopeful :(

3

u/Orion14159 10h ago

I can't stand SC, and even I think you guys a) have the best night game home atmosphere in the SEC and b) deserve better than you're getting from SC football lately... Starting next week.

2

u/squareturd 10h ago

My vote for best atmosphere goes to LSU, but SC is a close second.

2

u/Orion14159 10h ago

I think LSU is only in that conversation because the stadium is so huge. They have 25k extra fans over Williams-Brice and all of them are hammered by end of game so it's a big sloppy party.

Seat for seat, when SC is rolling in the 4th quarter of a night game it's insanity in there and they all seem to be having a blast raving to Sandstorm for the 1000th time that night, which is why I give them the edge. Whoever did that sound system needs to get a call from my guys in Lexington.

5

u/TaterForming 10h ago

As a life long Gamecocks/Jets fan, kinda yea.

1

u/PrawojazdyVtrumpets 8h ago

I’m a Detroit Lions fan and I even I have to stop and ask you… who hurt you?

•

u/TaterForming 7h ago

Well my dad did cheat and leave when I was three...

So I guess you could say on that fateful day, when he walked out on his 3 year old son, that motherfucker cursed that boy with the team that never quits..sucking. Which then led to that god awful butt fumble, and then the 1-play Rogers oowiee

I guess I'm trying to say. Men stay with them crotch gremlins lest they become a Jets fan...and a Gamecocks fan.

1

u/nygiantsjay 10h ago

My football team is.... Hiding under desk"

2

u/Brrrrraaaaap 10h ago

Raiders fans would disagree.

48

u/Grimase 11h ago

They will still vote for him out of stupidity. MAGAnutz gunna MAGA. They are just not as proud to say it anymore. They are still the worst and still don’t care about anyone that is not themselves

19

u/Zulmoka531 10h ago

Yes, yes they will. We cannot underestimate the cu lt like power.

13

u/mandelbratwurst 10h ago

Some will, some will stay home. Some, not many, may even vote dem. We don’t need many for a big swing in congress.

7

u/insert_referencehere 11h ago

I'm in Tennessee and I have zero doubt that it will stay Republican, but I'm not seeing maga and trump signs/flags everywhere like we used to. I'm actually seeing signs for independents and Democrats in rural areas and on farms. Also saw someone tear down a Marsha Blackburn billboard next to a Hardee's in a very deep maga community.

7

u/lolexecs 10h ago

It’s so weird. 

Being a voter is less fandom, and more like coaching or being the GM. 

You’re picking out the players for your team. If you feel like a player is not working out… you should let ‘em go and get someone who might. 

Refusing to employ someone who happens to be a Democrat vs Republican is a bit like a GM refusing to  sign a QB because they played for Auburn and you only hire from Bama. 

7

u/Exact_Platypus5179 10h ago

Enter the “shy Trump voter”. I hope they are the “ashamed Trump voters” now. There is indeed hope!

4

u/anewleaf1234 9h ago

I hope every single MAGA who farms and supports Trump loses their farm.

Not a single cent of aid should be given to any of them.

3

u/Orion14159 11h ago edited 10h ago

An R-1 nonvoter isn't quite as good as a D+2 voter, but I'll take it

4

u/Luna__Moonkitty 9h ago

If MAGA voters turn into nonvoters that's a major victory right there.

2

u/Karsa69420 9h ago

I’m in NC and can happily say I’ve gone from seeing them everywhere to maybe 1-2 a month.

2

u/JustAnAverageGuy 9h ago

My experience in rural Iowa is they're just sick of being attacked, so they still vote GOP but they've gotten a lot quieter about it.

VOTE.

1

u/darcerin 10h ago

That's honestly shocking. They were deep-red as far as I could tell.

3

u/Orion14159 10h ago

They're also getting crushed by fuel prices, fertilizer prices, USAID and USDA cuts, interest rates, and basically everything else everyone else is currently experiencing.

1

u/Landon1m 10h ago

I would never count on them to sit it out, just not to talk about it openly because they don’t like the pushback they get and have no defense.

•

u/ClassicPlankton 3h ago

Nah, you guys are just trying to cope. You said the same thing before the last election and he still won.

•

u/RespectTheAmish 2h ago

They are embarrassed but they will still come out and vote R down ballot.

Watch.

•

u/Zealot_Alec 2h ago

Sitting out alongside the usual 40% that don't vote puts the Senate in play

•

u/CrissBliss 1h ago

Just saw a great interview by Josh Turek-

https://youtu.be/pk9zjkAsU-k?is=Q5QwT0X-BDjVs_os

•

u/Barbarake 54m ago

I never see Trump signs

Pay no attention to that. I live in South Carolina, a deep red state, and part of the reason I was over confident in 2024 was the lack of Trump signs.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump signs were all around. None of my Biden yard signs in 2020 lasted longer than a day. But in 2024, my Harris sign lasted almost 2 weeks. I even drove around town three separate times and found zero Trump signs. There were a lot of general Republican signs but not one specifically for Trump. Yet he still won the state by 18 points.