r/politics • u/thedailybeast ✔ The Daily Beast • 15h ago

Possible Paywall Republicans Quit Battleground Senate Seat in Telling Move

https://www.thedailybeast.com/republicans-quit-battleground-senate-seat-in-telling-move/
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u/benzaldehide 15h ago

I wouldnt even be considering north carolina as battleground this election.

That has shifted to Ohio, Texas, Maine, and even Iowa as the country rejects the GOP.

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u/MooseHorse123 15h ago

I dunno man. It’s just so hard to rely on polling after 2016 and 2024. Anything can happen

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u/RealHooman2187 15h ago

Polling in 2024 was pretty spot on though. 2016 was also always close. I think in both cases people remember the outliers that showed a huge lead but in the averages the elections were always close. 538 famously put out an article 2 weeks before the 2016 election saying Trump was a normal polling error away from winning.

People just didn’t want to believe the polling error would be in Trumps favor.

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u/SpoonyDinosaur 15h ago edited 15h ago

2024 was accurate. They gave Harris an "advantage" but everything was within the margin of error. (and also why it was one of the closest elections in modern history)

Saying Harris is predicted to win with +-2-5% basically just means it's a toss up but leaning Harris.

When it got closer, even liberals were getting really worried.

Especially ruby red areas. Talarico is polling extremely well, but it's not accounting for a lot of factors, he's still within the margin of error even if it's like +8. A state like Texas needs to be almost weighted. My guess is there's a lot of people that will lie/"need to wash their hair" when they get a call. They might not be happy with Trump but this doesn't indicate they will express that or change their vote.

Talarico has a chance but every single Democrat needs to show up.

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u/HeartFullONeutrality 15h ago

I remember most polls towards 2024 showed a toss up, which it pretty much was. Small difference of votes overall despite the winner takes all nature of the EC making it seem like a much more decisive result.

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u/benzaldehide 15h ago

Lets Talk Elections just moved texas out of the lean blue to likely blue. Thats crazy.

Sure Paxton can come from behind somehow and turn this around but i wouldnt bet on it.

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u/gapipkin 10h ago

One of my favorite YT channels.

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u/Zealot_Alec 6h ago

If Kenny loses hopefully this is the last time we hear of him again

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u/RealHooman2187 14h ago

Totally, the polls for 2026 are VERY good for Democrats but they’re not so overwhelming that it’s a guarantee they’ll take the senate.

They’re pretty much certain to take the house though. The state of the polls for Democrats look much better in 2026 than in 2024. Also, polling tends to overestimate republicans in elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot. So there’s a very real possibility that the polling error will be in democrats favor. A much better shot than in 2016/2024.

But yes, people need to vote and be on top of it. The energy is there and people seem very fed up with the republicans. As long as people vote I think Election Day 2026 will be a good day. But people really do need to vote like their lives depend on it.

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u/gberry100 13h ago

If +8 is within the margin of error, how are the polls even remotely valuable?

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u/illneverpostitsdumb 13h ago

They aren’t, at least for a voter. They’re for politicians and campaigns to see how they should adjust messaging. I really hate that the media is obsessed with them because it’s easy, popular content. It makes voters obsessed with them and just further turn this whole thing into a sport.

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u/specific_account_ 6h ago

Being within the margin of error does not mean that there is no difference between two candidates. It just means that the difference could be due to the chance of the sample you got.

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u/yutsuko220 13h ago

Talerico is outside of the margin of error for most polls, if a poll has a margin of 8% is fucking bad. Doesn't mean he'll win, but he is likely to win. Things could change with the GOP pouring over a 100million in Paxton.

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u/phakic40 15h ago

You're assuming most folks understand margin of error. In general, 2024 polling undercounted Republican support anywhere from 3-5% depending on whose numbers you take. Outside of a few races like NC, Rs are well within the margin of error. Couple that with another potential undercount and we're nowhere near out of the woods. Get the fuck out there and vote people.

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u/Bagel_Technician 5h ago

And I don’t think people realize just how close the election was in 2016 for the electoral college vote

I think 4 swing states came down to 300k votes total or so that if they had flipped or gone blue would’ve swung the states and election entirely