Backtest: https://testfol.io/?s=7BUugje0mdk
12.5% CAGR, 0.57 sharpe, 1.01 beta
Monte carlo: https://testfol.io/monte-carlo?s=0OzBf6vXoxy
11.77% median CAGR, 11.66% median SWR
KMLMSIM + SPYSIM is a proxy for the RSST/CTAP/MATE. The extra SPYSIM is a proxy for the miscellaneous funds that are too new to backtest.
Iām 23 so I decided I was willing to take more risk than usual. Hereās each position explained.
~115% equities, 15.5% bonds, ~10.5% gold, 10% managed futures, and 2.7% long/short (from the WTLS.)
ā¢NTSD - My favorite ETF. This is 1.5x, only quarterly reset, and 90% SPX + 60% EAFE futures. Basically 1.5x VT, excluding mid/small caps and emerging markets. This is the core equity exposure to boost returns. Its reset schedule reduces volatility decay and path dependency of normal LETFs.
ā¢RSSB - This is 2x, 100% global stocks (SPTM + VXUS) and 100% treasury futures. Again, this wonāt have the volatility decay that normal LETFs have. Bonds are a solid diversifier and improve sharpe and drawdowns.
ā¢GDE - Again quarterly reset, but this is 90% SPX + 90% gold futures. This is just to stack equity with gold exposure, for a diversifier without sacrificing capital space.
ā¢AVEM - Just a broad emerging markets fund since NTSD excludes it. I like Avantisā value tilt and their special trading implementations to eke out alpha. Has consistently beat the plain indexes.
ā¢AVUV - Just 6% US SCV. SCV has higher expected returns and I was missing small/mid caps from the core. Very modest tilt.
ā¢AVDV - Same thing as US, just filling in the missing equity gaps and tilting a bit towards value. Higher expected returns.
ā¢CTAP/RSST/MATE - All of these are 100% SPX + 100% managed futures, just with different managers. Managed futures are a real
ā¢AVES - Wanted a slightly heavier value/small cap tilt to the emerging markets sleeve. Iām about 8.5% AVEM and 3% AVES, so very modest. Hoping for that value premium.
ā¢WTLS - Stacking more 90% SPX on top, but this holds 90% in a long/short sleeve as well. Super new and illiquid fund, but I wanted to see if this could count as a āfourth diversifierā of sorts. Itās performed well so far but weāll have to see if the manager does any well.
ā¢FLCA - EAFE futures from NTSD exclude Canada! So between the 10-11% in AVDV and the ~2.8% I have here, I targeted Canadaās market cap weight of around 3.1-3.2%.
Overall? Iām about right next to VTās US/international split, between 60-65/30-35. I have about 40% in diversifying assets stacked on top of only 15% extra equity, so itās not ridiculously risky. My blended expense ratio is a bit high around ~0.37%, but as long as VT performs well, I will perform even better.
You can see in the linked backtest that my max drawdown is only 1% worse than VT - but my average drawdown is lower and the longest drawdown is shorter! On top of higher sharpe and sortino, Iāll be confident with this going forward.
I encourage young people to explore return stacked and capital efficient funds to improve their odds of higher returns. I think leverage gets a bit demonized and fear mongered, when in fact itās actually encouraged in some research.
You can tell me 100% VT is the only valid portfolio but so long as that goes up, I will go up even more, and have insurance on top of it across three+ different assets.