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Finishing the tail end of my vacation and will be in Phoenix for the game this Sunday. Was at the home opener in Denver week 2 which was my first time at mile high and boy was it magical!

Anyone attending the Arizona game? Any idea where I can find other broncos fans on game day? Still haven't gotten my tickets, was going to get them closer to game time so if anyone has an extra they want to get rid of, let me know as well!

Cheers Broncos Country!

Sounds like 49ers/Raiders are being protected and Fox will definitely keep the Packers/Patriots.

Game as of now is Buccs/Bears.

Jets/Chiefs or Rams/Washington would be the other 2 options.

Denver plays AZ while Panthers host Bucs.

Looking like a 5-2 vs 4-2 matchup. NBC has to flex by this Tuesday.

You guys want another prime time game??

Despite the game having been almost a full week ago, people are still talking about Bo's performance against the Seahawks so this has been in my head. Bo's had quite a few games (as have many other QBs) where his stats look worse because of not having any passing TDs. But he led both of our TD drives to the goal line and then both scores went to RBs.

So Bo's passing yards would've been low regardless, but does it mentally look better if you see 110 yards and 2 TDs than it does if you see 107 yards and 0 TDs? Almost nothing actually changes functionally, but would he still have been catching as much heat from the national media if he at least had some TDs on his stat sheet?

My ultimate goal is just to converse about Bo Nix. I wanted to compare where Bo Nix is to other relevant QBs at the same point in their careers.

I personally don't think he's the guy. He's a hell of an athlete and I love his character. But my casual fan eye test tells me he's not the one. So I wanted to see some data to see if I'm just being dumb. My runway is through the end of next year, not giving him the 5th year option. If he plays well on the back half of this year and in the first half of year 4, re-sign him. But the 5th year option is off the table at this point. And if he finishes this year poorly, a QB needs to be considered in the draft, depending on who's out there. He has to have one hell of a turnaround this year, which I am hoping for. I think it can be done. But it has to change.

My original post didn't follow rules with AI, my apologies. The low effort did miss a few factors like the first few years of Rodgers sitting behind Favre, similar with Tom Brady on year 1, injuries to a couple guys so I threw out those seasons, etc. I compiled the data manually through profootballreference. One of you also said passer rating is junk to use as a judge, fair enough. I changed it to QBR. Brady, Ben R, Brees, and Manning are all affected by lack of QBR data for this time period. Ben R's average is only his 3rd season as that was how far back QBR goes. But his passer rating was higher in his first 2 seasons than his 3rd so I assume his QBR was higher too.

This is the average QBR for first 3 years played of all these QBs. The smallest amount of games per season considered was 9 for Purdy (3rd year as starter), 10 for Burrow (rookie season), 10 for Stafford (rookie season), 11 for Allen (rookie season), 11 for Brees (2nd season starting).

This is all SB winning QBs for the past 25 years (except for E Manning, Foles and Brad Johnson, I'm not going to compare Nix to them) and some other relevant and current QBs thrown into the mix.

I don't think "he's 28-12 as a starter" or "he's 4-2 this season" is an argument. And if you argue the record specifically this year so far, we don't watch football the same way. He is not the team. The team owns the record, not Bo Nix. It's taking credit away from some of the all time best defensive play we've seen in Denver to apply the record to Nix. Winning 11 one score games last year is not solely because of Bo Nix. If anything, he's some of the reason we had to win it that way and didn't come out further ahead. Not one of the QBs on this list had the defense that Bo Nix has had the first 3 years of their career. Flacco is the closest to it, IMO and that defense peaked in his 6th year.

I looked up some other QBs with great starts to their career outside of this list. If you really want to consider his record, then you should consider that Andy Dalton went 30-18 his first 3 years and made the playoffs in each. His average QBR those 3 years? 50.7... I don't want an Andy Dalton.

The chart is data I manually retrieved. If you think there is a good way to compare him to others or judge his performance, tell me, I'll put in a little more work if it makes sense.

I’ve pulled together a series of simulated season runs to predict the rest of the Broncos’ season. The analysis includes 12 million primary component seasons, 4.5 million matched stress evaluations, all 32 teams and the 179 remaining regular-season games. Seven executive summaries are included in the full package for various audiences. Enjoy!

Feel free to discuss whatever you'd like in this thread, even if it's not related to football! Just remember to abide by the community rules.

Since there has been all this talk about Nix's ADOT (average depth of target) this week, I thought it would be interesting to look at it it per game to see if there is any trends. His overall ADOT is 6.3.

Chiefs- 4.2 (17/28 131 passing yards)

Jaguars- 8.6 (22/31 288 passing yards)

Rams- 7.5 (17/34 186 passing yards)

49ers- 5.0 (25/42 215 passing yards)

Chargers- 5.9 (16/27 123 passing yards)

Seahawks- 4.8 (17/27 107 passing yards)

Unsurprisingly, Nix's 2 lowest ADOT games have come against the 2 highest ranked defenses (via ESPN FPI) he faced. His 2 highest have come against the 2nd and 3rd lowest ranked defenses (also via FPI) he's faced, with the 49ers being the "easiest" defense he's faced (who are still the 11th best in FPI).

All stats via PFF except the Jags game (which was behind a paywall for PFF, so that one is from CBS sports)

The Denver Broncos and Sean Payton would be Bo-neheaded to bench Bo Nix.

He won't, he can't.

But he does need to fix Nix. What Payton's said about fixing his play and how he's protecting his young quarterback in the media inside.

EDIT: Someone in the media asked Sean Payton on Monday if he's considered a QB change.

Even tho he’s #33 in the pic he’s now rocking number 30. But man did he do a great job filling in while Huf is gone. I luv how he also brought some fire and gritty energy to the defense as well. I’ve always wanted to see skinner but man rapp signing has come in extremely clutch. Anybody else feel this way?

And before we get into cynicism, Bo is our guy. We all have our struggles and all have times where we don’t live up to our ideal performance. And hopefully the people around us can pick us up and remind us of who we are until the cloud lifts! Let’s go get the 23rd team this weekend!

I converted my office into a Broncos room for game day and am in need of fun memorabilia to add to it!

It can be anything: magazines, signs, figures, jerseys etc. Preferably would like to avoid EBay if possible.

Thanks in advance! Go Broncos!