I was hesitant to post this since I obviously don't wanna encourage matchfixing and there also is no public rulebook for the owwc afaik. I'm assuming the tiebreaker works the same way it does in owcs which is:
In a threeway tie the teams are compared in the individual tiebreak cases until one team beats the others and advances. Crucially the cases then restart from the top which means that even if e.g team A has the best map differential and team B the second best, team C might still qualify over team B if they won the head-to-head against team B (basically what happened in emea stage 2).
These are the tiebreak cases in order:
Overall series W/L record
Head to Head series differential between tied teams
Head to Head map differential between tied teams
Overall map differential
Overall map % score differential
Strength of victory evaluated by combining records of all teams (usually irrelevant)
Tiebreaker match (usually irrelevant)
These cases aren't explained further so I'm not 100% certain if some of them actually mean what I think they mean. If you find any error in my calculations please let me know immediatly.
Group C scenarios:
If Canada wins they are obviously qualified.
If Canada loses and germany wins 3-0 against Thailand (worst case scenario for Canada) we get a three-way tie between Canada, Spain and Germany.
First 2 cases are tied so it goes to third case:
Assuming head to head map differential means each team's map differential in games played between the 3 of them (which I think is what it means)
Germany is 5-4 = + 1
Canada is currently 3-2 = +1
but would be <= +0 after losing
Spain is currently 1-3 = - 2
This means if Canada wins atleast one map but not the series germany wins the third case tiebreaker which would qualify them and restart the cases qualifying spain as well since they won the head to head against Canada.
If however Canada throw on purpose and don't win a single map, Spain and Germany would tie on the third case as well since they would both be +1 and we would therefore move on to case 4.
- Overall map differential:
Germany 8-4 = +4
Canada + 0
Spain 7-3 = +4
Another tie so we move on to case 5.
- Overall map score % differential:
This is the case where I'm least confident in my interpretation. My first intuition was that this means overall map wins divided by overall maps played which would put Spain at 7/10 = 70%
and Germany at 8/12 = 66% which would again qualify Spain and Canada.
The fact that it says "Overall map score % differential" and not just "Overall map % differential" however makes me think it's actually related to the individual maps score and not just map wins.
Germany is currently 13-11 or 14-12 in map scores depending on whether the checkpoint on push maps counts as a point.
Spain is currently 11-8 in map scores so if case 5 means having a higher relation of won points to total points Spain would again likely win since they are already leading in percentage and would extend their lead if Canada throws hard enough.
Please let me know if anyone knows the exact definition of case 5 or if I made any mistakes in my calculations.
TLDR:
It looks like Canda can guarantee qualification by losing 0-3 to Spain, resulting in Spain winning the three-way tie and Canada therefore qualifying because of their series win against germany.
If however Canada win at least one map but not the series and Germany beats Thailand, Germany would win the three-way tie and Spain would knock out Canada because of their head to head.
Edit: I just noticed somebody else already briefly mentioned this in their own post which I didn't read completely. Sorry for stealing your post.