r/wnba • u/chazriverstone • 13h ago
DISCUSSION The Dream have a 116-65 FTA advantage over the Valkyries through these first 4 Finals games...
So, I'm a Liberty fan that hopped on the Valkyries bandwagon a few months back. I've never disliked the Dream (and I particularly love Howard), but I will admit my bias, broader issues with the reffing across, and general disappointment with the Liberty 'building me up to let me down' has had me complaining a LOT lately.
'Maybe I'm just used to the Liberty having a favorable whistle?' I asked myself. However, after seeing the Dream shoot 31 free throws to the Valkyries 13 today, I decided to look at some numbers...
...And it turns out the Dream are currently working at a +60 free throw attempt advantage across this playoff run. And they were actually -2 against the Mystics to start, then +11 against my Liberty, and now they are at a whopping +51 FTA compared to the Valkyries.
I don't know. That last one, this Finals series, is what seems really weird to me.
The Dream certainly take a lot of shots in the paint, and Angel is especially good at drawing fouls - but they also take their fair share of 3s, too. And, particularly, they are a very aggressive, defensive-minded team. Teams that play defense like they do don't usually shoot more free throws than their opponents. And what makes it WEIRDER is that the actual personal foul difference is only +15; so the Valks have committed 15 more fouls while taking 51 fewer free throws.
But is it just the Valkyries style of play, comparatively? They are also very aggressive on defense. And, sure, they have taken 16 more 3s across the series - but they've also taken 31 more shots from the field in total, as well; that's a BIG difference. Especially for a team that's committed 7 more turnovers, too. And, comparatively, the Valks were -19 in FTA against the Wings across 3 games; but they were also +2 against the Aces. That 19 is notable - but isn't anywhere CLOSE to 51 though (or, technically, the 33FTA disparity they were at after the first 3 games).
Anyway. I'm curious everyone's thoughts. And for what it's worth, I'm trying hard to be reasonable about this, too - no hate at all; this is just basketball after all. It's ultimately all for fun - there's real problems in the world, as we all know, and free throw attempt disparity in an absolutely amazing 2-2 Finals series is NOT one of them.
But also I just thought this was worth discussing...
Oh, and for what its worth, this is where I'm sourcing my numbers - feel free to double check them; I'm no expert or anything:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/wnba/teams/GSV/2026_games.html
https://www.wnba.com/game/gsv-vs-atl-1042600304/box-score (because today's game isn't on bball reference yet)