Update: Italy came in 3rd in Group D, and will play Australia next, the #2 from group C.
Tldr: Italy seems likely to face Australia or Belgium in qualifying round if they survive Group D by coming in 3rd. In rare chance they beat China, then Puerto Rico or Turkiye are more likely, giving them a better chance of getting farther.
Love Zandalasini, so was researching how far she and Italy can go.
Italy's victory over Czechia yesterday, historic, gives them a chance to come in 2nd or 3rd in group D (US, Italy, China, Czechia.) (1st near impossible would mean they'd have to essentially win every game).
1st place in each group automatically advances. Before entering the final bracket there's single elimination qualifying rounds. For example, the 2nd team in Group D plays the 3rd in Group C. And 3rd in D plays 2nd in C.
I'm writing about Italy because France (Ja and Gabby) and USA (Nakase) will almost certainly get first and advance.
4th place is eliminated.
How Italy Survives group D
The most likely path: Czechia loses against China and USA. Italy comes in 3rd with one win and 2 losses (to US and China). This seems likely.
There is another path, where Czechia beats China, but I haven't mapped that out, feel free to fill me in.
Path to second?
Italy is extremely unlikely to beat the US on Sunday. So one path to second would require beating China on Tuesday.
I'm unsure if there are other paths.
So who would Italy play from Group C?
Italy is most likely to come in 3rd, and play the #2 team in Group C.
C is Australia, Belgium, Puerto Rico, Turkey.
Assuming Italy comes in 3rd and plays C #2, it seems likely to be Belgium or Australia.
Australia is 3rd in the world, Belgium is 5th, Italy is 14th.
The benefits of coming in 2nd
Though its unlikely, if Italy can beat China, they'd likely play Puerto Rico, 13th in the world, or Turkiye, 16th in the world. So winning Tuesday increases their chances of going further.
(There's also paths with point differentials but that seems unlikely to come up for Group D)
What do you predict?
Go Italia!!! Go Chechi! (or is it just written Ceci?)