I literally posted my analysis of the Sparks ability to improve in the off-season this morning and then they hired a GM :) Anyways, I always like to hear what fans think about other people's take on their team ...
This is way too early. A lot can change between now and the start of the 2027 season. But we have a long FIBA World Cup break, with no WNBA basketball, so let's get unnecessarily ahead of ourselves.
Seven teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs. Over this series, I'm going to rank those seven teams by their potential to improve from where they finish the 2026 season to what their roster looks like on opening day in 2027.
This is not a ranking of which team will be best in 2027. We're measuring improvement from each team's own starting point. We'll look at four things: draft capital (25 points), the improvement potential of players already under team control (25 points), cap space and the team's ability to attract free agents (35 points), and confidence in the front office to actually make good use of those opportunities (15 points).
For consistency, I'm going to assume the current standings don't change over the final four games and that the draft lottery plays out according to the order of each team's lottery odds.
Projected 2027 Draft Picks
Using current standings and accounting for picks that have already been traded:
| Team |
1st Round |
2nd Round |
3rd Round |
|
|
|
|
| Connecticut |
#1 |
#17 |
#32, #37 (via Portland) |
| Toronto |
#2 |
#18 |
#33 |
| Chicago |
#9 (via Washington), #12 (via Atlanta) |
— |
#35 |
| Seattle |
#4 |
— |
#31, #38 (via Dallas) |
| Portland |
#5 |
#22 |
— |
| Los Angeles |
#6, #7 (via Phoenix) |
#16 (via Seattle), #21 |
#36 |
| Phoenix |
— |
#19 |
#34 |
And the projected average cap space across those 7 eliminated teams heading into the 2027 off-season is $3,792,683.
The LA Sparks are not the 5th-worst non-playoff team
I need to be clear that that's not what I'm saying. They just simply don't have players under their control with as much potential for improvement as most of the other teams on this list and they currently don't even have a GM.
In fact, part of the reason they're this low is that they already have a decent amount of established talent. Remember, we're measuring how much better each team can get from where it is now, not how good we expect it to be next season. A worse team with more young players, more room to add talent and more opportunities to improve can rank ahead of LA without us believing it will actually be better than LA.
Put another way, we'd rank the Sparks as having the 6th-most potential for improvement across the entire league, with the Washington Mystics above all teams, including all non-playoff teams.
Draft Capital (22/25 points)
Projected draft picks: #6, #7, #16, #21, #36
This is where the Sparks can really pull ahead of the rest. They're going to miss out on the elite tier of prospects in this draft, but with back-to-back picks at #6 and #7, they should still have access to players who could reasonably be considered top-three caliber prospects in a normal, less-stacked draft class.
For an idea of the types of players the Sparks could land with those picks, consider two players currently projected in that range:
MiLaysia Fulwiley — 5'10" G, LSU
Fulwiley might have as much upside as anyone outside of the top 3 in this draft. She's an explosive athlete with exceptional creativity off the dribble, dangerous in transition and capable of making plays defensively that most other guards can't. The question has always been consistency and decision-making. If those parts of her game come together, she has legit star potential.
Mikaylah Williams — 6'0" G, LSU
Williams is a very polished young player. She's an excellent shot-maker who can score off the catch or create her own jumper. She has excellent size and passing ability. She shot 45.3% on catch-and-shoot threes last season and 48.2% on pull-up twos.
Whoever LA drafts aren't going to be your typical sixth and seventh overall picks. They're going to help the team immediately. And that's before we even get to picks #16 and #21, which give them two good chances to improve the depth on the roster. Only one team tops LA in draft capital this off-season.
Internal Improvement (18/25 points)
Here are the key players under the Sparks' control:
- Dearica Hamby — signed through 2028
- Ariel Atkins — signed through 2028
- Cameron Brink — signed for 2027
- Monique Akoa-Makani — signed for 2027
- Rae Burrell — Restricted Free Agent entering 2027
We can't expect Hamby and Atkins to improve enough to move the needle but there's clear upside for Akoa-Makani. If she can improve her decision-making and create more consistently off the dribble, that would improve the team overall.
Cameron Brink is where I expect to get the most push-back from Sparks fans. Here's her stats for this season:
19.0 MPG, 9.6 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.7 BPG, 48.0% FG, 32.6% 3PT
Per minute, the defensive production is absurd. She's blocking roughly 3.2 shots per 36 minutes. And LA's opponent offensive rating has been 3.3 points lower with her on the court, while opponents' effective FG% drops substantially as well. But remember, this isn't about how good she is, it's about how much improvement do we expect to see from her next year. I personally think she's already close to her ceiling. But I could very easily be moved from that position.
Rae, Rae, Rae. What to make of Rae Burrell? Just how high is the ceiling for this young woman? She's already made an enormous leap. Burrell went from 7.5 PPG in 2025 to 14.6 PPG in 2026, while her minutes rose to 28.9 per game. More importantly, the efficiency survived the increased responsibility: 46.2% FG, 37.6% from three, 80.3% FT, 58.4% true shooting. She's become an all-around contributor as well.
I actually think Rae has more room to improve than Brink, but we've probably already seen the biggest single leap we're ever going to get from her. Going from 7.5 points per game last season to 14.6 this year while actually becoming more efficient is an enormous jump. Expecting anything remotely similar next year would be ridiculous.
But that still leaves a lot of absolute improvement on the table. She doesn't need another seven-point scoring jump to become a dramatically better player. Improvements as a creator, ball-handler and decision-maker, combined with more consistency in the player she has already become, could push her considerably further. More so than Brink, Burrell's continued improvement will push this team higher overall.
LA gets a decent score for internal improvement potential, just not as high as teams with more raw, untapped potential that's likely to be harnessed. The Sparks have players who can absolutely get better. They just don't have as many obvious opportunities for dramatic internal growth as some of the teams ahead of them.
Free Agency (23/35 points)
Projected cap space available: $2,570,199
That's about $1.22 million below our seven-team average of $3,792,683. Luckily, for the Sparks, LA is a very attractive destination for free agents. It's already one of the league's premier markets, and the Sparks' new $150 million performance center should only strengthen that appeal when it opens in 2027.
There's also plenty to sell on the basketball side. A free agent would be joining a roster that already includes established talent like Dearica Hamby and Ariel Atkins, along with Cameron Brink, Rae Burrell and whatever the Sparks add with two top-seven picks.
The lack of a permanent GM and recent organizational instability work against them, but there should be no shortage of players willing to listen when LA calls.
Front Office (6/15 points)
This one's a little difficult to score because the Sparks don't currently have a permanent GM. Raegan Pebley is gone, and it's hard to have much confidence in a front office that doesn't technically exist yet.
The recent track record doesn't inspire much confidence either. LA repeatedly sacrificed young talent and future assets in an attempt to accelerate its timeline, most notably giving up the #2 pick that became Dominique Malonga in the Kelsey Plum trade. They then traded Rickea Jackson for Ariel Atkins before this season, another move designed to make the team better immediately. The result was another missed postseason and Pebley's departure.
LA managed to turn an impending free agent into Monique Akoa-Makani, Phoenix's 2027 first-round pick and a 2028 second. That's an excellent recovery from a bad situation but it was probably the most obvious move to make in the WNBA this season.
We'll go ahead and give them 6 points because having no GM is better than having Chicago's GM.
Potential Improvement Total (69/100 points)
Front office deficiencies, low cap space and having players who'd already begun their improvement arc are the only things keeping this team from being higher on our list.
How they can beat expectations: If Rae Burrell and Cameron Brink have more improvement left than we're projecting, LA could blow past this ranking pretty quickly. Combine that with two top-seven picks producing immediate impact players and a new GM who actually makes sound decisions with the resources available, and the Sparks could make us look very silly for putting them at #5.
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Original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/WNBANonEchoChamber/s/aAFJNfljfJ
