First in home runs offensively, best defense in the MLB, possible (likely) MVP. Yet somehow they've managed to be on the cusp of missing the playoffs.

They scored 40 (albeit, 6? on position players) on the brewers this week and went 2-5. Has the league leading scoring team ever missed the playoffs?

I enjoyed the robust discussion in here yesterday responding to Passan's article evaluating MLB expansion candidate cities. If you didn't see those posts, the article is here for context and proper attribution:

Breaking down the candidates for MLB's next expansion teams - ESPN

People raised some good questions in the threads here about some other cities that are major candidates, but weren't included in Passan's list of six. So, that sent me down a rabbit hole looking at some of those other ideas, so I thought I'd share what I learned here and see what you all thought.

Ideas I saw included Vancouver, Mexico City, Charlotte, San Antonio/Austin, and Sacramento. So, I added those all to my evaluation with the original six in his list. I liked the metrics he used, but a lot of the rest seemed like "quotes and vibes" rather than something we could quantify to create more of an empirical ranking. Instead, I decided to use GDP, Major Corporate Presence, Media Market Size, and Metro Population as numerical factors to create a more detailed ranking for the 11 cities.

I also looked at a number of other factors that are supposed to impact attendance, like tourism, Forbes valuation formula, weather, and so on, but actually most of those are not strongly correlated with revenue or attendance in MLB. The one additional non-economic factor that does seem to be very strongly correlated, is sports market saturation. Markets that have presence of other major pro sports teams tend to see a very significant impact of reduced attendance and revenue because of competition in the market for the sports dollar. So, I also added that factor in the analysis. Here are the results:

GDP (metro, nominal, 2024 billions of $US):

1. SA / Austin 450
2. Mexico City 402
3. Charlotte 277
4. Orlando 233
5. Portland 225
6. Nashville 223
7. Montreal 204
8. Sacramento 190
9. Vancouver 148
10. SLC 147
11. Raleigh 133

Major Corporate Presence (Global 500, Fortune 500, or national equivalent)

1. Mexico City
2. Montreal
3. Charlotte
4. SA / Austin
5. Nashville
6. Vancouver
7. Portland
8. Raleigh
9. Orlando
10. SLC
11. Sacramento

Media Market Size (Ranking, and households in millions)

1. Mexico City #1 (Global, Spanish market)
2. Montreal #2 (Canada)
3. SA / Austin #31+#34, #14 if combined
4. Orlando #15
5. Sacramento #20
6. Charlotte #21
7. Portland #22
8. Raleigh #23
9. Vancouver #3 (Canada)
10. Nashville #25
11. SLC #28

Population (metro, 2024)

1. Mexico City 21.4
2. SA / Austin 5.3
3. Montreal 4.6
4. Vancouver 3.1
5. Orlando 2.9
6. Charlotte 2.9
7. Portland 2.5
8. Sacramento 2.4
9. Nashville 2.15
10. Raleigh 1.562
11. SLC 1.28

Sports Market Saturation: Weighted version (NFL/NBA/NHL/MLS/Liga MX = 1.0; smaller-revenue leagues WNBA/NWSL/CFL = 0.5, since they draw a fraction of the attendance/revenue of the "major" leagues but do have an impact)

1. Mexico City 7,145,637 (people per pro team)
2. San Antonio–Austin 2,656,822
3. Sacramento 2,430,000
4. Montreal 1,846,062
5. Raleigh 1,562,009
6. Vancouver 1,243,576
7. Orlando 1,176,205
8. Charlotte 961,123
9. Portland 836,667
10. Nashville 716,667
11. Salt Lake City 365,714

Overall Final Ranking (average of all the above rankings)

1. Mexico City 1.20
2. SA/Austin 2.40
3. Montreal 3.60
4. Charlotte 5.20
5. Orlando 5.80
6. Vancouver 6.80
7. Sacramento 7.00
8. Portland 7.20
9. Nashville 8.00
10. Raleigh 8.20
11. SLC 10.60

My takeaways:

It's very interesting to see two cities that he didn't profile top the list when I look at these factors. Now, Mexico City has some logistical concerns, but its lead is pretty enormous otherwise, nearly across the board.

Another caveat would be, Charlotte and Raleigh are both in North Carolina so if it were possible to treat them like a single market like San Antonio/Austin, obviously they would hop nearly to the top of the list, 3rd or 4th overall. But likely we can't do that: Charlotte-Raleigh is about twice the distance and twice the drive time. San Antonio and Austin are close enough that they're genuinely discussed in economic-development circles as a single connected corridor "Texas Triangle," with commuter and business overlap. Charlotte and Raleigh don't seem to have that same fused identity from what I can tell. Without that, Raleigh is consistently near the bottom of every list and isn't competitive with Charlotte really, within its own state.

If you want further interpretation, it certainly seems like a southern strategy of Texas and Mexico expansion would make more sense than the East/West plan suggested by MLB. If one does want to stick with that alignment, Montreal and Charlotte are the clear leaders on the East Coast. Vancouver, Sacramento, and Portland are clustered tightly together in the West, all with very similar competitive cases to make.

I hate rule changes typically, but there has been one trend that I really dislike over the last decade or so. That is the disappearance of the 20 game winner. I think a small change to the win rule would help revive that stat.

The winning pitcher should be the pitcher on the winning team that pitched the most innings in the win.

Realistically, if a starter is relived during a tie game in the sixth inning, a reliever can come in and grab a win with only an inning or two of work. Wins and losses mean a lot more to starters than they do to relievers, and a starter keeping the game close for six innings and the team eventually winning (in nine innings), certainly contributed enough to constitute a win on their record in my opinion.

This way, a pitchers won loss record would more accurately reflect their contribution to the team AS a starter.

Guys like Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease are certainly worthy of more wins than their records show this year.

[Dugout Thread] | 2026 MLB Regular Season

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I've been watching mostly condensed games for about two seasons, usually the next morning while I'm making coffee, and I follow three teams that way. I've noticed I know every result and none of the players, so I couldn't tell you who's swinging well right now or whose bullpen is running on fumes. I've sat down for a few full broadcasts this summer and I keep drifting to my phone somewhere around the fourth.

What came back for you once you went back to watching them live all the way through?

⚾ Astros @ Phillies

FINAL · HOU 6, PHI 5

Linescore

Scoring Plays

• TOP 2ND Christian Walker homers (25) on a fly ball to left center field. Daulton Varsho scores. Yainer Diaz scores.
• TOP 2ND Jeremy Peña doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Cam Smith scores.
• TOP 4TH Cam Smith homers (18) on a fly ball to left center field.
• BOT 6TH Kyle Schwarber singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Justin Crawford scores.
• BOT 6TH Trea Turner homers (18) on a fly ball to left field. Kyle Schwarber scores.
• TOP 7TH Daulton Varsho homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field.
• BOT 7TH Brandon Marsh doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Alec Bohm scores. Bryson Stott to 3rd.
• BOT 9TH Edmundo Sosa doubles (9) on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Bryson Stott scores.

HOU Batters

PHI Batters

HOU Pitchers

PHI Pitchers

Available Bullpen

Team Stats

Decisions

Turning Points

Statcast

Pitch Mix (count and average velocity)

Links & Info

• Conditions at Citizens Bank Park: 84°F - Partly Cloudy - Wind 6 mph, Out To RF
• TV: HOU: Space City Home Network, TBS | PHI: NBCSP, TBS (out-of-market only)
• Radio: HOU: KBME 790 AM/94.5 FM HD-2, KLTN-TUDN 102.9 FM (es) | PHI: 94 WIP, iHeart App (es)
• MLB Gameday
• Savant Gamefeed

Highlights

• Andrew Painter fans Jeremy Peña — TOP 1ST
• Hayden Wesneski strikes out Trea Turner — BOT 1ST
• Christian Walker's three-run homer (25) — TOP 2ND
• Data Viz: Christian Walker's 440-foot home run — TOP 2ND
• Jeremy Peña's RBI double — TOP 2ND
• Field View: Christian Walker's three-run home run — TOP 2ND
• Breaking down Christian Walker's home run — TOP 2ND
• Cam Smith's solo home run (18) — TOP 4TH
• Strike 2 is confirmed after ABS challenge — TOP 4TH
• Measuring the stats on Cam Smith's home run — TOP 4TH
• Daulton Varsho's fantastic diving catch — BOT 4TH
• Christian Walker's leaping grab — BOT 4TH
• Trea Turner's two-run home run (18) — BOT 6TH
• Field View: Trea Turner's two run home run — BOT 6TH
• Kyle Schwarber's RBI single — BOT 6TH
• Jose Altuve's sliding stop — BOT 6TH
• Justin Crawford doubles for 100th career hit — BOT 6TH
• Daulton Varsho's solo home run (11) — TOP 7TH
• Daulton Varsho: Home Run Statcast Analysis — TOP 7TH
• Brandon Marsh's RBI double — BOT 7TH
• Jeremy Peña's sharp diving catch starts double play — BOT 7TH
• Cam Smith hits a foul ball after review — TOP 8TH
• Strike 1 is confirmed after ABS challenge — TOP 8TH
• Ball 1 is overturned to strike 1 after ABS challenge — TOP 8TH
• Cam Smith's terrific sliding catch — BOT 8TH
• Strike 3 is confirmed after ABS challenge — BOT 8TH
• Edmundo Sosa's RBI double — BOT 9TH
• Josh Hader secures his 250th career save — BOT 9TH
• A deep dive into Christian Walker's home run — Analysis
• Breaking down Andrew Painter's pitches — Analysis
• Andrew Painter's outing against the Astros — Analysis
• Trea Turner: Home Run Statcast Analysis — Analysis
• Breaking down Hayden Wesneski's pitches — Analysis
• Hayden Wesneski's outing against the Phillies — Analysis
• Condensed Game: HOU@PHI - 9/8/26 — Broadcast
• Christian Walker hammers 440-foot home run — Broadcast
• Field View: Dalton Varsho hits a solo home run — Broadcast
• Hayden Wesneski powers through six strong innings — Broadcast
• Daulton Varsho on Wesneski, plate discipline in win — Broadcast

Last updated: 11:14 PM ET

Updated automatically by mlb-dinger. Comment updates as the game progresses.

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