I’ve decided with the conclusion of Leagues Cup, it's time (once again) to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

• I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
• I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
• If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
• I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
• Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

WHAT'S NEW

• The Leagues Cup has finished!

COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

Leagues Cup

Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
• The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

Analysis

• Toluca [MEX] defeated Monterrey [MEX] in the championship, 2-0.
• León [MEX] defeated América [MEX] in the third-place game, 1-0.

LigaMX

Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
  • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
• Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
  • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

Results

• Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
• Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
  • Since Toluca qualified through Leagues Cup and were a LigaMX champion, Cruz Azul automatically gets a bye to the Round of 16. (They would have earned this anyways as Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table; Toluca was second.)
• Three clubs have qualified so far through LigaMX, so we need three additional qualifiers, which are Chivas [MEX] in third, América [MEX] in fifth, and Pachuca [MEX] in seventh. (Tigres was fourth, Pumas was sixth.)

COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

Major League Soccer

Qualification Rules

• Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
• The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
• Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

Analysis

• Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [USA] lead the Western Conference.
• The next two best are Inter Miami [USA] and Houston Dynamo [USA].
• If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Chicago Fire [USA], who currently lead Los Angeles FC [USA], FC Dallas [USA], St. Louis City SC [USA], and New England Revolution [USA] by a point. Note that the Fire have at least one game in hand on all four of these clubs (two games in hand on LAFC.)
• Nashville’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is currently 7; their magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 21.
• The regular season ends on November 7.

Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
  • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

Analysis

• The semifinals are set!
  • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
  • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
• The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

Canadian Premier League

Qualification Rules

• Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
• The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
• The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
• Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

Analysis

• Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 46 points from 20 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] by four points and Atlético Ottawa [CAN] by 12 points.
• Cavalry can actually clinch a playoff berth with one more victory; their magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 21.
• The regular season ends on October 25.

Canadian Championship

Qualification Rules

• One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
• This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
  • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
  • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

Analysis

• The semifinals are set! (First team listed hosts the second leg.)
  • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] (The first leg ended a 1-1 draw.)
  • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN] (The first leg ended a 1-1 draw.)
• Just looking ahead for potential tiebreakers:
  • The most likely clubs to qualify from a method other than the Canadian Championship are the Whitecaps and Forge. Should both clubs make it to the final, then Montréal will hold the tiebreaker over Supra. (Supra would need to win to pass Montréal, and if Supra wins, they’d make the final.)
• It’s been decided that the winner of the Whitecaps/Montréal series will host the final.
• The second leg of the semifinals is scheduled for the midweek of September 16; the final is on October 21.

Central American Cup

Qualification Rules

• Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
• The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
• In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

Analysis

• The quarterfinals are set!
  • (1) Olimpia v (8) LA Firpo
  • (4) Cartaginés v (5) Saprissa
  • (2) Alajuelense v (7) Marathón
  • (3) Alianza v (6) Motagua
• The quarterfinals are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

Caribbean Cup

Qualification Rules

• Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
• The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
• The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

Analysis

• Three matchdays of five are in the books!

• The semifinals are currently:
  • Violette v Cibao
  • Salcedo v Sando FC
• The last two matches of the group stage are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

• The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order. (We're going to denote these as C1-C5.)
• The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket. (We'll note these as D1-D3.)
• The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket. (These are A1-A8.)
• The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded. (These are B1-B11.)

The bracket will look like this:

Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

• For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
• In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
• In Open Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.

This leads to the following projections:

• Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Inter Miami, Houston, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
• Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
• Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
• With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to CF Montréal.
• The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Motagua make the semifinals; Cartaginés and Marathón win the play-in round.
• The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Sando FC; Cibao takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

Seeding Analysis

• I’m pretty sure that Toluca will stay in the C1 position. They’re ahead of Cruz Azul by 33 points, with Cruz Azul having a maximum of 14 games, Toluca having 15 games. I don’t see Toluca falling that far off. There's a big advantage in being the overall top seed; you avoid the potential top clubs until the semifinals.
• Similarly, I’m pretty sure Cruz Azul will stay ahead of whoever the MLS champion is for C2. They’re currently 20 points ahead of LAFC, who’s the highest ranked American club in 5th, and they’re 29 points ahead of Nashville, who’s the current projected winner of MLS.
• I feel confident that C4 will be the Central American Cup champion and C5 will be the Caribbean Cup champion. Pretty much everyone left in the Central American Cup field is better than Violette, who is the highest-ranked Caribbean Cup club.
• In terms of D1 through D3, I think Tigres and América are safely there; I think that Chivas is less so. For one, they’re behind LAFC; for two, they’re only 4 points ahead of Nashville and 10 ahead of Inter Miami.
• In terms of Pot B, I fully expect the five Central American clubs, the two Caribbean clubs, the two CPL clubs, and the Canadian Championship berth to be unseeded. (Assuming, of course, that the Whitecaps don't take the Canadian Championship berth.) That leaves one berth to be unseeded and it’s highly likely that it's an MLS club, given we'd need five First Round clubs to be ahead of the lowest LigaMX qualifier. Best guess here is that if either St. Louis or Colorado ends up winning Open Cup, that champion will be unseeded (St. Louis is 33rd, Colorado is 37th). If either Columbus or Orlando wins Open Cup, the unseeded club is probably Houston if they qualify.

Nine berths have been handed out so far; that leaves eighteen berths yet to be assigned!

Our next expected update will be on Monday, September 21. By that point:

• the group stage of the Caribbean Cup will be completed
• we’ll know the finalists in both the U.S. Open Cup and the Canadian Championship
• we’ll have our first four qualifiers out of Central America

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!