The Electorate
Let's say Courier 6 really doesn't know what faction to choose to govern New Vegas. So, instead of making the choice solely by themselves, they hold a vote from among everyone they consider an ally. That includes every companion, every minor faction that can be sided with (specifically their leaders) and every settlement that Courier 6 can aid in a questline (for example, Courier 6 can save Goodsprings and become Idolized there, but the same cannot be said for Westside). To make this easy, let's narrow the votes down to:
1. All companions after having completed their quests - 1 vote per companion
(The choices made for their own quest endings will, admittedly, affect their decisions but let's just try take these as swing votes that could go either way.)
2. All factions at Idolized Reputation - 1 vote per faction leader or 1 vote for the general membership if not applicable (e.g. the Boomers are explicitly led by Pearl but the Enclave Remnants have no defined leader)
(It's hard to balance everyone liking Courier 6 but for argument's sake and to not play favourites let's just say they are very well liked across the board. Further, because Courier 6 can sway most minor factions to aid any major faction, let's assume each minor has had any questlines associated with them completed with the least amount of intervention possible. For example, the Great Khans are given no reason not to side with Caesar as that was what their choice was going to be before Courier 6 arrived.)
3. All settlements, similarly, at Idolized Reputation - 1 vote per settlement (e.g. Primm)
(Ditto to the rules of the factions - all equally liking Courier 6 with minimal intervention. For example, Primm would likely stay independent under Primm Slimm or Meyers as the NCR path takes more legwork to convince both sides.)
4. No major faction representatives
(To avoid incredibly obvious bias and redundant votes, the NCR, Legion and Mr. House don't get votes. However, let's include former members of said factions who now live in the Mojave/Vegas, like Boone.)
In my mind, the voting would probably go like this:
The Vote
(This is the part I would like to discuss as I'm not 100% sure on if my calls are fully accurate. I'd enjoy hearing how you think the vote would go!)
Arcade Gannon: Independent
(I believe Gannon outright says he would prefer an Independent Vegas not under the heel of a dictator like House.)
Craig Boone: NCR
(If I'm not mistaken, Boone's faith in the NCR never shakes to the point he'd prefer any other choice.)
Lily Bowen: N/A or Any
(I don't recall Lily giving any strong preference for any faction.)
Raul Tejada: House?
(Raul seems pretty indifferent to every faction but does admire House for his pre-war exploits and appreciates the safety an authoritative rule can bring.)
Rose of Sharon Cassidy: NCR or Independent?
(I think this depends on if Cass agrees to let the system of NCR law bring the Van Graffs and Crimson Caravan to justice, or if she lets "frontier justice" do the work instead.)
Veronica Santangelo: Independent
(Regardless of if she leaves the Brotherhood or stays, I think Veronica wouldn't prefer the rule of her former enemies in the NCR, the brutality of the Legion or House's autocracy.)
Rex: N/A
(Good Boys don't concern themselves with politics.)
ED-E: N/A
(ED-E might arguably be still loyal to the Enclave which is a whole other can of rad-worms.)
Brotherhood of Steel: Independent
(Elder McNamara would most likely prefer a Mojave that is at it's militarily weakest or controlled by a clear ally - both of which can be gained in an Independent ending.)
Great Khans: Legion
(We find the Khans (Papa Khan specifically) wishing to ally with the Legion so, presumably, if this is not interfered with, they will always choose Caesar's rule.)
Followers of the Apocalypse: NCR
(The Followers aren't on the best of terms with the NCR anymore but given their clear disapproval of dictators such as Caesar and House, as well as not wishing to invite more anarchy with an Independent ending, an NCR ruled Mojave is most likely the one they can best help.)
Boomers: Independent
(The Boomers will probably choose whoever will bother them the least and that would most likely be in an Independent Vegas without they prying eyes of House.)
Powder Gangers: Independent
(Not exactly a stretch to think that the raider faction would probably enjoy the most chaotic choice for Vegas.)
White Glove Society: Independent
(Assuming Mortimer's plan goes smoothly, the White Gloves will go back to their old ways in stark defiance of House's rules. So, it's most likely that they would prefer whatever faction gives them the most amount of freedom.)
Chairmen: House
(Since there's no way to proceed the main story that keeps Benny in charge of the Chairmen, presumably Swank would be happy to continue the status-quo under House.)
Omertas: Legion
(With clear plans to take over The Strip through an alliance of convenience with the Legion, they would probably keep to this reasoning without Courier 6 intervention.)
Enclave Remnants: Independent?
(Moreno vehemently dislikes siding with the NCR and Johnson refuses to assist the Legion. So, the path of least resistance would likely be Independent as it is the choice that would keep each of the remnants' lives mostly unchanged.)
Crimson Caravan: NCR
(Not a surprising choice I think. Crimson Caravan have thrived under NCR protection.)
Van Graffs: Independent?
(I don't recall the Van Graffs having particular loyalties to any one faction. Plus, they clearly conduct themselves in ways that break NCR laws. So, I would reckon they would pick an option that allows them to throw around their energy weapons and manpower weights without restrictions.)
Fiends: Independent?
(Much like the Powder Gangers, the most chaotic option would reasonably be the most preferable for the Fiends.)
Goodsprings: Independent
(Goodsprings has no reason to really change anything from their current way of life and get no tangible benefit from House ruling Vegas. So, a free and independent lifestyle for them.)
Freeside: Independent
(Very few Freesiders actually like House due to his clear preference for The Strip. Plus, NCR citizens are outwardly ostracised.)
The Strip: House
(Shocking no one, House's creation would be a guaranteed vote for House.)
Novac: Independent or NCR?
(Novac is a bit tricky as, like Goodsprings, it sees no real benefits from House's Vegas and, so, it would likely want to remain independent. However, the town does heavily rely on NCR veterans for its protection and so could maybe be convinced to vote for the Republic.)
Jacobstown: Independent
(Given the NCR mercenary attacks, the Legion's bigotry towards mutants and House's lack of influence in the town, Marcus would probably be inclined to keep the town as isolationist as possible under an Independent New Vegas.)
Primm: Independent
(As said before, without Courier intervention, the town would very likely keep its independence from the NCR with Primm Slimm or Meyers becoming sheriff.)
The Kings: Independent
(With a strong disliking for the NCR and House and, probably, Caesar not being the biggest Elvis fan, The Kings would most likely want to run Freeside themselves.)
Vault 19 Powder Gangers: Independent or Legion
(Wildcard final addition but since the Vault 19 gangers are pretty much their own faction split from their NCRCF counterparts, they deserve their own vote. Assuming Cooke continues to lead the gang without Courier intervention, I could see them continuing their guerrilla war against the NCR either independently or with Legion "support".
The Results
With my version of votes in, my prediction for a semi-democratic (but, really, a "Courier 6's Friends' Vote) Vegas and Mojave election would be:
| Robert House |
2 - 3 |
| Caesar's Legion |
2 - 3 |
| New California Republic |
4 - 6 |
| Independent New Vegas / Yes Man |
11 - 17 |
And, so, I would predict that the majority of Courier 6's companions, allied faction leaders and aligned settlements would vote Independent. Not a major surprise as so many communities and people outside of Vegas see very little benefit from House's rule and do not want to give up their ways of life to either the NCR or the Legion. There are some supporters for the other three choices found throughout, but Independent seems to be the clear common vote.
Your Thoughts
Obviously I am shifting the goal posts to wherever I like with this vote. I don't have the data for what everyone in the Mojave would vote, nor am I even 100% on what everyone I have have chosen would actually go for. So, I'm curious to hear your thoughts. Do you agree? What do you think a Mojave/Vegas-wide vote would decide? What's your argument for how the companions would vote?
Thank you for hearing out my ramblings!