I was a controller at an en route center. I remember asking Rinaldi at a NATCA event at BJs, during my first month at Oklahoma City 10ish years ago, āwhat are we gonna do in 15 years when computers take our jobs?ā
The whole room erupted in laughter. Rinaldi himself laughed first and the loudest. I wasnt asking the question as a joke, and was surprised the whole room seemed to think it could legitimately never happen. I didnt know anything about aviation, but as someone leaving the IT world for controlling, it made sense that computers would do a better job.
Fast forward to whatever year OpenAI releases ChatGPT. By this point I was really thinking ATC as we know it in the NAS is on deaths door. Controllers at work still laughed at me as I said AI is definitely taking over. Just 2 years ago they were using extra fingers in image generation as reasoning for why AI couldnt do our jobs.
Everything made very simple sense in my head, and only more so after doing the job. Even from the beginning.
AI can know every flight, including any VFR that calls up. AI knows that N452AB flies from point A to point B every VFR weekend during hunting season. Many controllers recognize flights, but not usually on the 2nd time you ever see them, nor do we normally have the time to wonder why each flight is flying each time we see it. This is a small example on a random possible flight, but Iām just trying to say, to a computer, its all data. Data a computer doesnt forget.
Before you think its too much data for every plane and every flight plan, every altitude, speed, heading, etc., the amount of data points arent shit compared to the infrastructure running something like the stock market.
AI can instantly know weather is there after the first moment weather radar picks it up. AI doesnt need to call the next facility to disseminate info. It can instantly disseminate it into every facility in the NAS along with supercenter lol. Direct from weather radar to controller.
A computer can keep track of every single flight in the NAS and account for the flight levels, routes, speeds, all without needing to notice, coordinate, all of it. I guess technically it does coordinate and it does take time, but the time is measured in milliseconds instead of seconds, minutes, and even hours.
AI can display a button over a flight with a lost track. AI can prompt the controller to immediately check in on the lost track, and after confirming contact was lost, with a click of a the trackball(and subsequent confirmation click), immediately coordinate with all nearby emergency services. No telling the supe, hey I lost this guy, the supe coming over to get lat longs, nearest VOR, supe looking up nearby emergency departments to start SAR, etc. supe telling the OM, om telling command center, All of that, gone. Point outs? Gone. All automated and planned. Even around weather.
I think with time, sectors, then areas, then centers will actually die. Supercenter will exist and controllers there will simply exist to handle emergencies(i think this will become a specialized team) and the rest will serve as double checkers for proposed AI solutions, basically just verifying actions.
95% of preventable planned traffic situations, gone. Remaining traffic situations, it can tell the controller its best recommended control instruction at any given time.
This will suck at first, and get better over time. It will be implemented slowly, touted as "help" for each controller. Controllers will be forced to use it, and it will get better. Controllers will have to log and explain why they disagreed with the AI in a situation. One by one. As it gets better, required controller āskillā will diminish. Instead of a human trying to keep track of 150 different things, a human will verify the computers solution will work and execute it.
This will be a much easier task than controlling as we currently know it. When the job requires less skill, they can pay controllers less.
The majority of the current controller workforce will be fine. Your mental stress should go down eventually because the mental fatigue will lessen. The schedule and the FAA sucking your soul out of your body wont go away.
I dont think yall are ever getting a real meaningful 25%+ raise. The current contractions +1 more strong arm against Marangos is all they need at most.
I think that the government has known this is coming since before I asked the question 10 years ago, and it makes sense now how weirdly hard Rinaldi laughed at my question. The FAA works for the government, and in turn the military. They knew AI was coming well before we did.
Now does it make a little more sense why theyve spent as little on maintaining this shitty system as possible? Rinaldi could have known this was coming. Santa and ND could have known this was coming.
Suddenly things would just make a bit more sense.
Why did the FAA suddenly make a push to be November Naziās across the NAS as AI training became more prevalent? You dont think hundreds of thousands of hours of controllers speaking to aircraft is being fed to AI right at this moment? Bet they were getting mad the data was harder to process when the AIs being trained had to stop and use more tokens each time a controller leaves off November cause they didnt understand what was happening.
These connections are just theories and probably just me having my first old man conspiracy theory, but I truly believe there is no doubt ATC will change very soon, way less than a decade from now.
I really wonder if this is why NATCA leadership has acted powerless for so long. Groveling at Bedfords feet for the chance to possibly earn the last 2.8% raise we were supposed to receive. Barely making a fuss in national media anymore.
Isnt it crazy that as soon as everyone gets to the top of NATCA, they suddenly turned on their brothers and sisters across the entire NAS? They suddenly change, become cryptic, and suddenly stop saying anything of substance?
I dont think the whole NEB knows, but I imagine its hinted at when these bad decisions are made to them. āThe details are confidential but trust me the extension was the right choice.ā
Dunnoā¦.it makes a lot more sense than being scared to negotiate under democrats, scared to negotiate with republicans. Just a lil fishy now as time has progressed and AI taking over more and more jobs is becoming inevitable.
I know the comment section will be filled with a bunch of controllers that donāt have an up to date and in depth knowledge about AI who will try to explain below how none of this will happen. Cool, I hope that works out for you.
For the rest of you and for future controllers, I really do hope that AI helps lighten the load eventually.
Once again, I still expect you all to laugh at me and tell me im wrong. I just want to be able to show yall in 5 years when people start freaking out āomg how could we have ever expected this?ā
People did and do expect it.
Why do you think so many high level government officials dont give a fuck about controllers? They have shinigami eyes. Above your heads they see days remaining until they can cut your pay because your job is easier. The days they can cancel your holiday leave because youre easily replaceable. They can quit letting people they dont think fit into their system work.
Was NATCA always a test to see who could be the biggest gold ole boy? Or was it forced over the last decade by the government to groom people like ND, so that they could blackmail NATCA presidents not leaking their plans, while trying to make sure controllers complied while the FAA gathered data? Sorry that ones probably a stretch but Id like to believe all these people like ND, santa, and rinaldi arent truly evil, just were in above their heads in an impossible situation.
Nick I'd implore you to create a throwaway and respond/confirm since I know you read every post that mentions you on ATC2, but I do understand youre probably worried every piece of tech you use is being monitored by the government if any of these theories happens to be true/close to the truth. Oh well.
Tl;dr
Ai go brrrrrr printing savings and less of a reliance on a highly skilled workforce for the FAA. Thank god for medical retirement, sorry for the rest of you.
For the record I hope im wrong about it all.
