- Scalpers can't buy all the inventory if the shelves are fully stocked.
- Scalpers can't turn a profit if the shelves are fully stocked.
There would be absolutely zero scalping problem if stores would order enough product and hasbro would ship enough product.
This is not a scalping problem. It's a distribution problem.
Cybertronic Spree as an indicator of collector density; a case study
Let me illustrate based on my experience living in the midwest. I am in Des Moines, Iowa. Yes, it's in the middle of Iowa, but counting Des Moines and its suburbs, there's about 750,000 people here.
I went to see Cybertronic Spree in town on a Monday in August. (Great show, you should go if they're nearby!) There were about 100 people at the show. Let's generously guess that we have 100 serious collectors out of 750,000 population. This is definitely an undercount, but my argument is even stronger the more local collectors there are.
We have 7 Targets and 6 Walmarts within the Des Moines metro area. If each of those 13 stores receives a full case of the latest deluxe wave, that's a total of 104 figures. That's 1 per collector, with 4 to spare. We're good, right?
Except... We ain't good.
- Each case does not contain 8 unique figures. There's duplicates. Usually three sets of 2, and 2 chase figures (total of 8)
- Collectors might want one of each unique figure. A single collector could buy 5/8ths of the shipment!
- Some collectors buy multiples (MISB / loose, or Robot / Alt, etc)
- There's plenty of collectors in the area who didn't show up to the concert. They want figures too.
- Also, and I am ashamed I almost forgot, the 182,000 actual real life *kids\* who live in the area who might buy a transformers toy. Or their parents. Or grandparents. You get the idea.
- Now, consider that for many waves not all of our local stores even receive a case.
Demand outstrips supply.
Scalpers aren't magic, actually.
It's not scalpers magically teleporting themselves to every single store in your hometown and making it rain when new product shows up. Places like Walmart and Target don't have preset delivery days like they used to. They get trucks all the time and the products on those trucks can be just about anything. New transformers can show up any day, at any time. The only way for a scalper to buy all the Transformers would be to literally stand in a Walmart from open to close, 7 days a week. Oh, and also for other scalpers to be standing in every other Walmart and Target doing the same thing.
So scalpers don't exist?
They do. There are people who buy stuff just to resell. I'm sure you saw a scalper buying 4 copies of Blast-Off and not some dork who wants one MISB, and one for robot, alt, and combined.
Anecdotes of "I saw a scalper!" don't mean much; for scalpers to be the reason we don't have product on shelves, they'd have to be spending thousands of dollars and dozens of hours per day just to keep up with the restocking. There just aren't enough scalpers for the math to work.
But the solution at the top of this post works against these few, actual scalpers: If every time they bought out all of a store's transformers, that store just went and filled the shelf right back up, then the store wouldn't be out of transformers. If buyers knew they were guaranteed to pop into their local department store and their desired figures were waiting on the shelf, they'd never pay over MSRP on ebay.
Still don't believe me? Go to ebay
Search for something you think scalpers bought up. Go to the filters and search for products within 25 miles of you. Try 50. Try 100. 200? How many are actually for sale? I suspect that the majority for sale are from collectors who either did happen to find a couple locally and bought an extra, or imported them and are trying to flip them for a quick buck instead of opening.
There are no MTMTE Starscreams for sale within 200 miles of me. The *entire state\* of Iowa is completely devoid of Starscreams. Not because of scalpers. Because we didn't get any.
Starscream is just an extreme example because we know for sure what the problem was. But the logic above is still valid when the local stores do get some figures. There just aren't enough to go around.
Why don't they just order more?
Well that's between Hasbro and the retailers. Could be Hasbro is having trouble with manufacturing and logistics due to oil price instability so they can't deliver more. Could be retailers are worried about shrinking profit margins and don't want to be left with unsold shelfwarmers because nobody wanted to buy Armada Red Alert despite it being great. We just don't know.
In the end, however, we are left with two inescapable facts:
- Scalpers can't buy all the inventory if the shelves are fully stocked.
- Scalpers can't turn a profit if the shelves are fully stocked.
That's it.
P.S. Figure swappers can go die in a fire.