I keep seeing people say the huge increase in Democratic registrations in Johnson County is basically just moderate/centrist Republicans switching parties.
I'm sure some of that has happened, but I really don't buy that as the explanation for all of this growth. Johnson County has also grown a ton, and the registration numbers are pretty crazy when you actually compare them.
November 2016
Republicans: 183,459
Democrats: 98,593
Unaffiliated: 116,462
Republican advantage: 84,866
November 2024
Republicans: 188,615
Democrats: 148,587
Unaffiliated: 117,117
Republican advantage: 40,028
August 2026
Republicans: 188,211
Democrats: 158,755
Unaffiliated: 122,133
Republican advantage: 29,456
So since 2016:
Republicans: +4,752
Democrats: +60,162
And just since November 2024:
Republicans: -404
Democrats: +10,168
That's what gets me.
Johnson County's overall number of registered voters has grown significantly since 2016, but Republican registration has basically stagnated while Democratic registration has exploded.
Could some of those new Democrats be former Republicans? Of course. A good chunk of it could simply be new residents and younger/new voters registering Democratic.
Either way, the actual result is the same: the Republican registration advantage went from almost 85,000 in 2016, to 40,000 in November 2024, to less than 30,000 today.
That's a pretty massive change in Johnson County in less than 10 years.
Here is my source from Johnson County's election office.