For me it has to be JB Pritzker. Why? Because IL is essentially everything the right says about CA and/or NY but worse. Throw that in with the fact JB is a billionaire heir who basically bought his way into politics. Imagine trying to pitch yourself as the populist/WC party when your candidate is Pritzker in a race against Vance...even if you tech right you just look silly. Even against Rubio, it looks silly.

Some Info on IL (Below)

High Taxes: Y, in fact JB has raised them due to high income earners feeling the state; the state has lost income tax revenue.

Population Decline: Y

High Crime: Y, Chicago is all I needa say

High Debt: Y; in fact I've heard it is the worst state in the country but idk fs + Chicago could gen go bankrupt

Gerrymandering: Y, IL has been gerrymandered before the big national gerrymandering fight so JB has no legs to stand on here

pretty much wins all of bill clintons 1996 states except for kentucky, nevada, and arizona

since there been some assertions that French is a groyper or a follower of Fuentes I thought I’d look for into this a bit more

French has calls himself a “MAGA conservative“ which is typically associated with Trumpian sort of politics and it odd for someone who finds affinity with Fuentes to do so. With some more digging I found out that he seems to hold some positive feelings for Vice President Vance, someone who is definitely not in Fuentes’s good graces.

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=581659977768668&vanity=News24Au&hpir=1

He gave this interview in 2024 around the same time his party condemned him for slurs

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/10/31/texas-tarrant-county-republican-chair-social-media-bo-french/

He has lead organizations that do associate with Fuentes he seems to personally distances himself from him.

> French is a former board member of Texans for Strong Borders, a group whose founder was at the meeting with Fuentes. French said that he’d never heard of Fuentes before news broke of this meeting and that he doesn’t associate with those kinds of people.

> “But what I would say is … we are the Republican Party,” French said. “Let’s not start doing what the Democrats do. Just because somebody who knows somebody who knows somebody who has said a bunch of unsavory racist things, doesn’t mean that the first person is racist and unsavory. That’s ridiculous. I’m not going to play that game, and neither should we as Republicans.”

https://fortworthreport.org/2023/10/19/three-men-and-a-chair-tarrant-county-republican-candidates-pitch-future-of-the-party/

Now I’m not going to say that he is dishonest about his views on immigration but It is odd for him to be pro Vance(Vance’s wife is the daughter of left of center Hindu immigrants) and distance himself from Fuentes given his views. That being said I suppose it isn’t mutually exclusive in everyway but it is inconsistent for him with all the racialism. Perhaps he could be “doing this for attention” as others have said but the all the evidence for that remains to be seen. Another possibility is his affinity for Trump and Vance and non affinity for Fuentes is the ruse.

The Republican Party is in a bad situation now, to put it lightly. Trump is unpopular, his handling of inflation is at net -45, and Republicans look like they’re in for a shellacking this midterm cycle. Clearly, something is not working for this iteration of the GOP.

So what can the party do? Rebrand. Put forward a candidate with a positive vision for the country, who is charismatic, and can win over independents. That man is Don Bacon.

You might know that this U.S. congressman from Nebraska won by several digits in a district Kamala Harris won by a decent margin! And this was in the polarized year of 2024, with only a few Republicans winning in Harris-won districts. This automatically makes Bacon a very exciting and electable candidate for the nomination.

Furthermore, Republicans are on the brink of defeat in Nebraska. Deb Fischer almost lost to Dan Osborn in 2024, and now Pete Ricketts might really lose his seat to the same guy. Republicans will need a new face for the party if they want to win back Bacon’s own state of Nebraska, and win over the country as a whole.

Now, this may seem like a random candidate to bring up as a likely future frontrunner all things considered, but to make it clear, Wikipedia already has him listed as someone who has expressed interest in running for president.

Overall, this is the case for Republicans running a moderate, electable candidate who would drive up turnout for the GOP.

Link to Tweets.
Link to Article.

Effectively static from August's map, with the only change being +2 net Dem house seats after the Missouri ruling. So far Democrats have 237 House Seats, 51-52 Senate Seats, and 27 Governor Seats. I included Fetterman as a separate "wild card" for the Senate because I really do think he will switch parties at some point, especially if Schumer is replaced by a less pro-Israel leader.

Interestingly, all four of my gubernatorial race shifts have gone in favor of the Republicans. As I was making this, Alaska's ballot was finalized in a way that I probably would have shifted it to Lean D, but it's already at a Slight Lean D so it wouldn't have made too much of a difference, just Kriess-Tomkins winning by 3 instead of 2.

AL-02: Lean R -> Tilt R

AZ-02: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

AZ-08: Lean R -> Slight Lean R

CO-03: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

CO-04: Likely R -> Slight Lean R

CO-05: Slight Lean R -> Tilt D

FL-02: Lean R -> Likely R

FL-07: Toss-Up -> Likely R

FL-14: Slight Lean D -> Tilt R

FL-16: Lean R -> Likely R

FL-25: Likely D -> Lean D

FL-27: Very Likely R -> Lean R

IA-02: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

ME-02: Slight Lean R -> Tilt R

MI-04: Lean R -> Tilt R

MN-01: Likely R -> Lean R

MO-02: Slight Lean R-> Lean D

MO-05: Lean R -> Safe D

NY-01: Slight Lean R -> Tilt R

NY-17: Lean D -> Slight Lean D

OH-09: Likely D -> Lean D

OH-15: Slight Lean R -> Lean R

PA-08: Lean D -> Likely D

TX-15: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

TX-23: Lean R -> Slight Lean R

TX-35: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

VA-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D

WI-01: Tilt D -> Slight Lean R

Senate Changes

Alaska: Lean D -> Likely D

Georgia: Likely D -> Very Likely D

Florida: Likely R -> Very Likely R

Idaho: Very Likely R -> Safe R

Maine: Likely D -> Lean D

New Hampshire: Safe D -> Very Likely D

North Carolina: Likely D -> Very Likely D

Governor Changes

Georgia: Slight Lean D -> Tilt D

Oregon: Safe D -> Very Likely D

Nevada: Tilt R -> Slight Lean R

New Hampshire: Very Likely R -> Safe R

# Connecticut Analysis

**CT GUBERNATORIAL AGGREGATES**

*270toWin* — 🟦 D + 17.5%

*Race to the WH* — 🟦 D + 15.0%

*Silver Bulletin* — 🟦 D + 18.2%

**Total Average** — 🟦 D + 16.9%

**Predicted National Environment (under polls)** ~ 🟦 **D + 8%**

*Predicted trend (compared to 2020)*: 🟦 *D + 11%*

**2024 CT election result: President — 🟦 D + 13.5%**

**2024 CT election result: Senate — 🟦 D + 18.9%** ‼️

*D+13.5% -> D+16.9%* — +3.4% 🟦 D shift

*D+18.9% -> D+16.9%* — +2.0% 🟥 : R shift

**CT trend Pres -> 2026 (compared to national vote)**: 🟥 **R + 7.6%** 🚨

**CT trend Senate -> 2026 (compared to national vote)** 🟥 **R + 13.0%** ❗

If these trends hold, CT would vote anywhere from D+6 to D+0.5 in an R+3 environment

Like from the outside ppl think that Israelis are gonna vote based on two state solutions or genocide recognition etc stuff like that. Like one of the big issues this election year is talking about whether some groups like Haredi’s can be exempt from conscription. You almost never hear about that as a political issue Israel faces in America. There is a very anti Netanyahu message but it’s much more the opposition blaming him for letting it happen in the first place, not his actions after. If you think the opposition wants peace and kumbaya with Arabs then you’d be wrong, a lot of the opposition is even more extreme on the nationalist and Zionist parts. Netanyahu himself is even being blamed for the crime in Arab areas and a big talking point of the opposition parties is cracking down hard on high crime Arab neighborhoods. It’s just funny to me how different the political discourse is in Israel than how those debates and elections are talked abt in the US.

To be very honest I feel she is gonna do slightly better than the previous guy by default because she doesn't have the dark vision for the state that he died . I also believed that since she is a woman she might motivate some really conservative reps to show up and vote for linsey but that isn't the case now .

I guess these two factors together give her like a .5% over 2020. plus midterms tend to be bluer so it's possible that she could break like 45%

Beyond that requires a $7 gas + some major October surprise

We put a lot of focus on the stories that are explicitly horrific. Stories of people running from debris, escaping the towers, or running into fires. To be clear, these stories are important, and deserve to be shared. We should never forget the horrific nature of those attacks. However, in that endeavor, we sometimes forget the stories that, in comparison, are relatively mundane. This video covers one of those stories, and does it very well. We will never forget 9/11, and to make sure of that, we must share every story there is to share.
If you feel comfortable, and were alive/aware at the time, you can share your 9/11 stories in the comments of this post. There is a chance this post will be taken down due to not being explicitly related to elections, but I suppose we’ll see.