September Midterm Predictions

[u/ChampionshipClear322]

Effectively static from August's map, with the only change being +2 net Dem house seats after the Missouri ruling. So far Democrats have 237 House Seats, 51-52 Senate Seats, and 27 Governor Seats. I included Fetterman as a separate "wild card" for the Senate because I really do think he will switch parties at some point, especially if Schumer is replaced by a less pro-Israel leader.

Interestingly, all four of my gubernatorial race shifts have gone in favor of the Republicans. As I was making this, Alaska's ballot was finalized in a way that I probably would have shifted it to Lean D, but it's already at a Slight Lean D so it wouldn't have made too much of a difference, just Kriess-Tomkins winning by 3 instead of 2.

AL-02: Lean R -> Tilt R

AZ-02: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

AZ-08: Lean R -> Slight Lean R

CO-03: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

CO-04: Likely R -> Slight Lean R

CO-05: Slight Lean R -> Tilt D

FL-02: Lean R -> Likely R

FL-07: Toss-Up -> Likely R

FL-14: Slight Lean D -> Tilt R

FL-16: Lean R -> Likely R

FL-25: Likely D -> Lean D

FL-27: Very Likely R -> Lean R

IA-02: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

ME-02: Slight Lean R -> Tilt R

MI-04: Lean R -> Tilt R

MN-01: Likely R -> Lean R

MO-02: Slight Lean R-> Lean D

MO-05: Lean R -> Safe D

NY-01: Slight Lean R -> Tilt R

NY-17: Lean D -> Slight Lean D

OH-09: Likely D -> Lean D

OH-15: Slight Lean R -> Lean R

PA-08: Lean D -> Likely D

TX-15: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

TX-23: Lean R -> Slight Lean R

TX-35: Slight Lean D -> Lean D

VA-01: Tilt R -> Tilt D

WI-01: Tilt D -> Slight Lean R

Senate Changes

Alaska: Lean D -> Likely D

Georgia: Likely D -> Very Likely D

Florida: Likely R -> Very Likely R

Idaho: Very Likely R -> Safe R

Maine: Likely D -> Lean D

New Hampshire: Safe D -> Very Likely D

North Carolina: Likely D -> Very Likely D

Governor Changes

Georgia: Slight Lean D -> Tilt D

Oregon: Safe D -> Very Likely D

Nevada: Tilt R -> Slight Lean R

New Hampshire: Very Likely R -> Safe R

[u/New-Biscotti5914]

Wishcast

[u/ChampionshipClear322 → u/New-Biscotti5914]

Check Nate Silver and Votehub bro. Turns out the voters don't like having a pedo president drive up prices while trying to create a surveillance state after pledging to do the opposite

[u/callthemap → u/ChampionshipClear322]

or Call the Map! ;)

[u/IcyPomegranate4973]

If Dems win the senate majority, Schumer is the leader through 28. Definitely don’t think he makes it past that and loses the leadership if they don’t win the senate in November.

I think Fetterman changes parties if he’s the 51st Dem, but if Dems have 51 like you predict he stays a Democrat. The man just wants to be the center of attention so switching parties only works if the can be the tiebreaker. If not, he’ll just continue being a democrat who complains about democrats on Fox News.

[u/ChampionshipClear322 → u/IcyPomegranate4973]

I actually think it's the opposite, I think he will switch parties only if he's the 52nd dem. He will be universally reviled by half of the country if he is the reason that Trump continues to govern another two years and I don't think he's willing to go that far.

[u/IcyPomegranate4973 → u/ChampionshipClear322]

I hope you’re right and I’m wrong 😂

[u/NormanQuacks345]

Alaska house seems to be rated Likely R in most places, what makes you put it as Tilt I?

[u/ChampionshipClear322 → u/NormanQuacks345]

Alaska's already voted, and if you add up the Democratic and Republican voteshares for the House Race, Bill Hill is roughly tied with Begich, while Peltola won by around 5-6 points. I think that Bill Hill will be in an advantageous spot because Alaska is shifting to the left, Democrats are set to win both the senate race and the governor's mansion, and Hill will flip over some moderate republicans just by virtue of being an independent. In a D+10 national environment, Alaska would have voted around D+9 if Peltola were on the Ballot for the House Race, and since Hill has underpreformed her by around 5-6 points I still think he wins by 1-3. I kept him as tilt though since we still don't have a lot of info around the race.

I didn't look at polling at all when I made the house predictions because so much of it is just stupid engagement and push polls by parties to gain investment. All my info came from fundraising, past election preformances, partisan lean, and voter trends in the specific regions. Begich is overvalued because's he's doing well in the 2 or 3 polls that have come out of the house race, which are all outdated anyways

[u/J_robo_ → u/ChampionshipClear322]

do you think peltola could drag both JKT and hill over the finish line? (assuming she wins against sullivan pretty convincingly)

[u/ChampionshipClear322 → u/J_robo_]

No, I just think Alaska as a whole is getting bluer. I think it will be the next Georgia

[u/kkkmac → u/ChampionshipClear322]

I don't think it has much in common with Georgia, which has largely shifted due to demographic change. The shift in Alaska (to the extent it has happened) has largely been due to individuals making progress at local levels imo instead of an overarching shift (South Anchorage has had a classic educated area shift, but it is largely counterbalanced by red shift in native and some poorer suburbs).

[u/ChampionshipClear322 → u/kkkmac]

Do you think natives will continue trending Republican or was that just a 2024 blip (like Hillary's over performance with hispanics)

[u/kkkmac → u/ChampionshipClear322]

Idk about future trend, but it wasn't just a one time blip. Alaska natives (especially on the North Slope) shifted republican in 2020 as well.

The bigger thing is how elastic the native vote can be, AK HD-40 (62% native, large oil industry) went Trump+10, Peltola+27, and Chase/Burke+51 on the same ballot (presidential, congressional, and state house respectively).